Cardinals : AJ green signed

cheesebeef

Registered User
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
67,999
Reaction score
25,522
This business about Green being too old is silly. Here’s a few numbers from 33 year old receivers

Jerry Rice 122 1848
Terrell Owens 85 1180
Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023
Tim Brown 90 1344
Steve Smith 73 1174
Marvin Harrison 82 1146

33 is not old for savvy wide receivers. Green will be a solid acquisition.

It’s not just that he’s old. he’s old and has been breaking down, while not Being good since 2017. Guys don’t get healthier as they age. Injuries usually on,y get more prevalent, especially for guys who have already shown that.

also, Can you show me any of those guys above being either injured or awful for 3 straight years before a major resurgence.
 

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
5,524
Reaction score
8,264
Location
Orlando, FL
Now show us their prior two seasons.
Jerry Rice 122 1848

98 1503

112 1499

Terrell Owens 85 1180

77 1200

47 763 (hurt 7 games)

Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023

63 784

109 1200

Tim Brown 90 1344

104. 1408

81 1012

Steve Smith 73 1174

46 554 (only poor year)

79 1394

Marvin Harrison 82 1146

94 1274

86 1113
 

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
5,524
Reaction score
8,264
Location
Orlando, FL
Green was hurt in 2018, playing only 9 games. His yards would have been over 1200 in a full season. He averaged 15.1 yards a catch.

2019. He was on IR
2020. Bengals signed him for $18.2 franchise tag

Writing this guy off is a mistake. IMO he will have a solid year and exceed the contract value. The numbers I posted earlier indicate this level of receiver does not typically fade at this point. 2020 is a toss out. If he passes his physical (I’m sure he will) he will be an impact player.
 

Proximo

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Mar 8, 2015
Posts
5,326
Reaction score
3,061
Green was hurt in 2018, playing only 9 games. His yards would have been over 1200 in a full season. He averaged 15.1 yards a catch.

2019. He was on IR
2020. Bengals signed him for $18.2 franchise tag

Writing this guy off is a mistake. IMO he will have a solid year and exceed the contract value. The numbers I posted earlier indicate this level of receiver does not typically fade at this point. 2020 is a toss out. If he passes his physical (I’m sure he will) he will be an impact player.

Why is 2020 a toss out? Because you want it to be? He looks slow on tape, and is not getting separation.

I don't think he is going to get his speed back. Not to say he will be 100% worthless, he can probably give us what Fitz did last year - but that's not good enough.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
38,142
Reaction score
20,955
Location
SoCal
Jerry Rice 122 1848

98 1503

112 1499

Terrell Owens 85 1180

77 1200

47 763 (hurt 7 games)

Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023

63 784

109 1200

Tim Brown 90 1344

104. 1408

81 1012

Steve Smith 73 1174

46 554 (only poor year)

79 1394

Marvin Harrison 82 1146

94 1274

86 1113
Yeah none of those look very similar to AJ’s preceding two seasons.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
38,142
Reaction score
20,955
Location
SoCal
Green was hurt in 2018, playing only 9 games. His yards would have been over 1200 in a full season. He averaged 15.1 yards a catch.

2019. He was on IR
2020. Bengals signed him for $18.2 franchise tag

Writing this guy off is a mistake. IMO he will have a solid year and exceed the contract value. The numbers I posted earlier indicate this level of receiver does not typically fade at this point. 2020 is a toss out. If he passes his physical (I’m sure he will) he will be an impact player.
What’s your projection? Here’s mine:

56 catches 640 yards misses at least 3 games. Meh.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
38,142
Reaction score
20,955
Location
SoCal
Why is 2020 a toss out? Because you want it to be? He looks slow on tape, and is not getting separation.

I don't think he is going to get his speed back. Not to say he will be 100% worthless, he can probably give us what Fitz did last year - but that's not good enough.
2020 is not a “toss out.” No offense to Harry, but with all the bad takes about AJ sucking in 2020 (he wasn’t playing hard, his rookie QB threw all his bad passes to AJ while making his other two wrs productive) Harry’s blanket “throw it away” is the worst.
 

cheesebeef

Registered User
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
67,999
Reaction score
25,522
Jerry Rice 122 1848

98 1503

112 1499

Terrell Owens 85 1180

77 1200

47 763 (hurt 7 games)

Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023

63 784

109 1200

Tim Brown 90 1344

104. 1408

81 1012

Steve Smith 73 1174

46 554 (only poor year)

79 1394

Marvin Harrison 82 1146

94 1274

86 1113

Is this supposed to boost or destroy the case you’re trying to make? Steve Smith is the only guy who’s numbers look even REMOTELY like Green’s.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
38,142
Reaction score
20,955
Location
SoCal
Is this supposed to boost or destroy the case you’re trying to make? Steve Smith is the only guy who’s numbers look even REMOTELY like Green’s.
I asked him to post it. Imo it confirms that those comps were pretty bad ones. Harry’s argument about age has a major failure in that it solely focuses on one factor when we have multiple relevant reactors at our fingertips. To base an argument solely in age when (a) no one has denigrated the signing based solely in age; and (b) injuries and full season decline stats are also available is a failing proposition.

so considering we know AJ’s recent play, I challenge someone to find us comps where the player was a top flight receiver (doesn’t even need be HOFer to open the data), where they had comps to:
33 entering season
Last season: 16 games/47 rec/523yds/2td
Prior season: none - lower body injury
Two seasons prior: 46/694/6 7 missed due to lower body injury
Three seasons prior: 75/1078/8

four seasons of data paints a pretty full picture. Find me someone that has similar: acceptable season, injury shortened acceptable season, fully missed season, awful season - who then sprang back at age 33 to at least an acceptable season. I’m venturing to guess if they exist they are few and far between.
 

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
5,524
Reaction score
8,264
Location
Orlando, FL
I asked him to post it. Imo it confirms that those comps were pretty bad ones. Harry’s argument about age has a major failure in that it solely focuses on one factor when we have multiple relevant reactors at our fingertips. To base an argument solely in age when (a) no one has denigrated the signing based solely in age; and (b) injuries and full season decline stats are also available is a failing proposition.

so considering we know AJ’s recent play, I challenge someone to find us comps where the player was a top flight receiver (doesn’t even need be HOFer to open the data), where they had comps to:
33 entering season
Last season: 16 games/47 rec/523yds/2td
Prior season: none - lower body injury
Two seasons prior: 46/694/6 7 missed due to lower body injury
Three seasons prior: 75/1078/8

four seasons of data paints a pretty full picture. Find me someone that has similar: acceptable season, injury shortened acceptable season, fully missed season, awful season - who then sprang back at age 33 to at least an acceptable season. I’m venturing to guess if they exist they are few and far between.

If I still had a staff, I’d get them right on this. My post was designed for making one point, quality receivers are not finished at 33. I posted the additional years because of they were requested. I expect AJ to secure 70+ receptions and to exceed 1000 yards. The Bengals are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, but they were in position to best evaluate AJ when they tagged him. My other point is the on-field disorganization and play design was not favorable to AJ’s skill set, let alone his motivation. He will be motivated in AZ. He’ll likely be exclusively outside, where he excels. The physical should have shown any lingering impact from previous injuries.

Since none of us can see the future I suppose we will find the season resolves our differences.
 

Krangthebrain

Captain of Team Murray
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
22,783
Reaction score
9,465
Location
NoHo, CA
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Yeah that YouTube video where the Bengals fan breaks down "What's wrong with AJ Green" completely demonstrated that.

And the Darksiders don't want to consider that maybe, just maybe, Joe Burrow for some reason pretty much just threw crap at AJ. Stats and eyeballs back it up.
 

Stout

Hold onto the ball, Murray!
Joined
Dec 30, 2002
Posts
27,691
Reaction score
3,975
Location
Pittsburgh, PA--Enemy territory!
Yeah that YouTube video where the Bengals fan breaks down "What's wrong with AJ Green" completely demonstrated that.

And the Darksiders don't want to consider that maybe, just maybe, Joe Burrow for some reason pretty much just threw crap at AJ. Stats and eyeballs back it up.

And the kool-aid camp just can't concede that signing an old, very recently broken, and hasn't played well in quite a while WR when we needed speed and youth at the position is by far not a lock, certainty, or even strong likelihood for success. Like, why should ANYONE not LURVE that signing?
 

BritCard

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Jan 10, 2020
Posts
5,840
Reaction score
5,961
Location
UK
Yeah that YouTube video where the Bengals fan breaks down "What's wrong with AJ Green" completely demonstrated that.

And the Darksiders don't want to consider that maybe, just maybe, Joe Burrow for some reason pretty much just threw crap at AJ. Stats and eyeballs back it up.

All that aside. It's a $6m contract (Only $8.5m is he actually plays well and hits incentives).

$6m is Willie Snead money. It's Danny Amendola money. It's Cordarelle Paterson money.

It's practically impossible to under perform that contract.

I can only imagine that some here are being distracted by the Marvin Jones deal for a little more. It's not like Jones is a spring chicken. He's 31 and he has one 1000 yard season.

He's a good player, but that one deal doesn't make the Greene signing a bad deal.
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
419,102
Posts
4,467,290
Members
5,997
Latest member
Pokinmik
Top