ARZCardinals
ASFN Lifer
Here we go...3 days till the real draft it's time to make the final predictions. In my years of watching the drafts, mock drafts, senior bowl and the rest I've learned a ton. Often the "experts" don't get more than 2 to 3 players correctly matched with the team that drafts them. The reason being is teams draft in the first round for NEED not Best Player Available (BPA). This year everything is different. Why? Normally free agency comes before the draft and teams know exactly what is missing from their team and will plug in those holes. This year, I love the fact that the draft is first which will put many more teams using more of a view for best talent. Without further wait here is my one and only mock draft.
1. Carolina - Marcell Dareus
They drafted Jimmy C. last year and he's shown enough ability to know they don't have to get Cam Newton. The Panthers saw what Suh did for Detroit and they know it'll be 100 times easier to sign a DT as the #1 pick than a QB. While Newton is in the discussion, he will NOT be the pick. Carolina plays it safe and takes the future of their defensive front.
2. Denver - Von Miller
The Broncos were hoping and expecting Marcell. Once the first pick is made they'll work their back side off to try to trade out of pick number 2. The Cardinals may make a decent enough offer to trade back, but if they don't expect them to take a solid talent who has shown he is a leader on and off the field. Miller is a safe pick and will be in Denver for the next 8 years.
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green
The Bills wr corps lacks a talented #1 wr and this is the year that ends. A.J. Green will open the field and pull safety coverage. Their team defense struggles will continue, but the production from Green is too much to pass. They would have loved to have gotten Miller and will consider Bowers, but his health is too much to deal with at pick number 3. They go safe and take the best WR in the draft and one of the best prospects in A.J. Green.
4. Cincinnati - Cam Newton
The Bengals have too many issues with Carson Palmer to try to play chicken with him. They do NOT want to let Palmer hold the team hostage, but they can't allow him to control their future. The owner of the Bengals has never cared about a players past issues with off the field activities and Marvin Lewis will sell Cam as a 2 year project, thus giving Marvin another year of employment.
5. Arizona - Robert Quinn
The Cardinals have no depth at QB, so why aren't they taking Gabbert? Simple, they don't believe in the rookie qb being able to grasp the NFL game fast enough. Quinn will have been higher rated on the Cardinals draft board than the fan selection of Von Miller. Why? Quinn might have been the #1 overall pick had he not had his issues and received his suspension. Quinn, unlike Miller, can rush the QB with a variety of moves and has the power to bull rush. While ESPN and NFL Network will be showing highlights of Gabbert during 90% of the lead-in to Arizona's pick, they'll all be a bit shocked when it's Quinn.
6. Cleveland Browns - Patrick Peterson
The Browns could use help at WR and would like to have gotten A.J. Green. Holmgren will be eating an additional danish in the war room seeing PP7 available at the Browns pick. Peterson has the ability to cover the Browns for years. In his immediate years he can play CB, as his speed drops off he can be used as a free safety. Peterson can also be involved in the return game, if needed. There is just too much value to Mike not to make this pick.
7. San Francisco - Prince Amukamura
The 49ers CB corps is in too much trouble to ignore. Drafting Prince Amukamura fills two holes for the team. First the 49ers can drop some overweight contracts of aging vets and they get an excellent replacement in the process. Management and coaches are smiling. They were hoping for Patrick Peterson, but have little hesitation handing in the card for Prince Amukamura.
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert
The Titans would prefer to have taken Nick Fairley, but with no depth at QB and an unwillingness to go play the free agency market Gabbert is the pick. Gabbert has the ability to stay in the pocket and get the ball quick to his receivers. The new coaching staff knows they are rebuilding and can afford the time to work with Blaine for the immediate future. Had the old coaching staff been in place, Fairley would have been the pick.
9. Dallas - Tyron Smith
The Cowboys need a lot of help at CB, but neither of the top 2 have fallen far enough and they know what they are now doing in round 2. Tyron Smith has done nothing but dominate from the tackle position game after game, play after play. He has shown an amazing ability to control his side of the field on running and pass plays. He may not be Joe Thomas, but he's not too far off.
10. Washington - Julio Jones
Shannahan can't take it anymore. He saw and heard McNabb enough to see that they don't have one decent WR on the team. Julio Jones was rated by many ahead of A.J. Green. Due to the bone issue, the Redskins get one heck of a player at pick #10. Jones will see double coverage day in and day out. The need and the pick are too easy to match up here. While the future of keeping McNabb may be uncertain, the pick of Julio Jones is crystal clear.
11. Houston - Nick Fairley
The Texans tried to trade up, but the cost was too much to get PP7 or Prince Amukamura. They stay set and select the one hit wonder of Nick Fairley. Wade Phillips is taking over the defense and installing the 3-4. The first thing needed is someone to control the line. While Nick may not be able to hold the point, they can slide him up and down the line. Fairley showed too much talent and ability to destroy offensive lines for them to pass up.
12. Minnesota - DaQuan Bowers
The Vikings are known for defense and Bowers with 15 sacks last year has an amazing amount of talent. While there are reservations about his knees, they just can't pass up the talent. Traditional sites think Locker or Mallet are the pick here due to QB issues, but they've played the old time qb and survived for years. Nothing changes here. The next (potential) T. Suggs is now a Viking.
13. Detroit - Gabe Carimi
The team, management, owner and fans are sick of seeing their QB destroyed the past 2 years. They have a good team and the only thing holding them back at this point is keeping QB1 off IR. Anthony Castonzo will be in the conversation, but the best OT in college last year was Gabe and he'll be a wonderful player for many years. Hometown kid only has to move a few miles down the road.
14. St. Louis - Anthony Castonzo
The Rams were wanting Green or Jones to fall to them, but Bradford has a big smile on his face when Anthony Castonzo is the pick. When you can't get the receiver you want, give the ones you have more time to get open. The WR's weren't horrible last year, but lack overall talent. Having Anthony on the team will keep Sam upright and the WR's will be working their tails off to become all they can be. Look for an even more improved Rams team this coming year.
15. Miami - Mike Pouncey
Tony Sparano (Head Coach) is an offensive line coach by nature. They have their eyes set on Ryan Mallet, Mike Pouncey and Mark Ingram at this point. Understand that they do NOT have a 2nd round pick. They know that taking Mallet at this point is a reach and they can resign Ricky Williams and/or Ronnie Brown. Pouncey has all the tools needed to anchor the front side of the o-line. With the head coach and management on board Pouncey is the pick.
16. Jacksonville - J.J. Watt
The Jaguars need help at the DE spot and J.J. has proven he can play at a high level. They will look at Ross and Jordan here, but with the production of J.J., his size and his ability to play in any condition will provide all the guys in the war room enough evidence to turn in the card.
17. New England (from Oakland) - Aldon Smith
Aldon has all the talent to be a top 10 pick. Billy Boy smiles as he somehow thinks his jedi mind trick to get top players much lower in the draft has worked again. New England doesn't have any major holes, so they have the freedom to look around. Aldon Smith will be meeting Peyton Manning before he knows it.
18. San Diego - Cameron Jordan
Cameron may not jump out at the average fan as a top flight talent. Coaches and scouts went back to the tapes after seeing Jordan own the Senior Bowl. What they saw on the tapes was a solid player. What they saw at the deeper level was a son of a former Pro Bowl NFL player. All of this, plus the need for another DE makes Jordan the pick.
1. Carolina - Marcell Dareus
They drafted Jimmy C. last year and he's shown enough ability to know they don't have to get Cam Newton. The Panthers saw what Suh did for Detroit and they know it'll be 100 times easier to sign a DT as the #1 pick than a QB. While Newton is in the discussion, he will NOT be the pick. Carolina plays it safe and takes the future of their defensive front.
2. Denver - Von Miller
The Broncos were hoping and expecting Marcell. Once the first pick is made they'll work their back side off to try to trade out of pick number 2. The Cardinals may make a decent enough offer to trade back, but if they don't expect them to take a solid talent who has shown he is a leader on and off the field. Miller is a safe pick and will be in Denver for the next 8 years.
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green
The Bills wr corps lacks a talented #1 wr and this is the year that ends. A.J. Green will open the field and pull safety coverage. Their team defense struggles will continue, but the production from Green is too much to pass. They would have loved to have gotten Miller and will consider Bowers, but his health is too much to deal with at pick number 3. They go safe and take the best WR in the draft and one of the best prospects in A.J. Green.
4. Cincinnati - Cam Newton
The Bengals have too many issues with Carson Palmer to try to play chicken with him. They do NOT want to let Palmer hold the team hostage, but they can't allow him to control their future. The owner of the Bengals has never cared about a players past issues with off the field activities and Marvin Lewis will sell Cam as a 2 year project, thus giving Marvin another year of employment.
5. Arizona - Robert Quinn
The Cardinals have no depth at QB, so why aren't they taking Gabbert? Simple, they don't believe in the rookie qb being able to grasp the NFL game fast enough. Quinn will have been higher rated on the Cardinals draft board than the fan selection of Von Miller. Why? Quinn might have been the #1 overall pick had he not had his issues and received his suspension. Quinn, unlike Miller, can rush the QB with a variety of moves and has the power to bull rush. While ESPN and NFL Network will be showing highlights of Gabbert during 90% of the lead-in to Arizona's pick, they'll all be a bit shocked when it's Quinn.
6. Cleveland Browns - Patrick Peterson
The Browns could use help at WR and would like to have gotten A.J. Green. Holmgren will be eating an additional danish in the war room seeing PP7 available at the Browns pick. Peterson has the ability to cover the Browns for years. In his immediate years he can play CB, as his speed drops off he can be used as a free safety. Peterson can also be involved in the return game, if needed. There is just too much value to Mike not to make this pick.
7. San Francisco - Prince Amukamura
The 49ers CB corps is in too much trouble to ignore. Drafting Prince Amukamura fills two holes for the team. First the 49ers can drop some overweight contracts of aging vets and they get an excellent replacement in the process. Management and coaches are smiling. They were hoping for Patrick Peterson, but have little hesitation handing in the card for Prince Amukamura.
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert
The Titans would prefer to have taken Nick Fairley, but with no depth at QB and an unwillingness to go play the free agency market Gabbert is the pick. Gabbert has the ability to stay in the pocket and get the ball quick to his receivers. The new coaching staff knows they are rebuilding and can afford the time to work with Blaine for the immediate future. Had the old coaching staff been in place, Fairley would have been the pick.
9. Dallas - Tyron Smith
The Cowboys need a lot of help at CB, but neither of the top 2 have fallen far enough and they know what they are now doing in round 2. Tyron Smith has done nothing but dominate from the tackle position game after game, play after play. He has shown an amazing ability to control his side of the field on running and pass plays. He may not be Joe Thomas, but he's not too far off.
10. Washington - Julio Jones
Shannahan can't take it anymore. He saw and heard McNabb enough to see that they don't have one decent WR on the team. Julio Jones was rated by many ahead of A.J. Green. Due to the bone issue, the Redskins get one heck of a player at pick #10. Jones will see double coverage day in and day out. The need and the pick are too easy to match up here. While the future of keeping McNabb may be uncertain, the pick of Julio Jones is crystal clear.
11. Houston - Nick Fairley
The Texans tried to trade up, but the cost was too much to get PP7 or Prince Amukamura. They stay set and select the one hit wonder of Nick Fairley. Wade Phillips is taking over the defense and installing the 3-4. The first thing needed is someone to control the line. While Nick may not be able to hold the point, they can slide him up and down the line. Fairley showed too much talent and ability to destroy offensive lines for them to pass up.
12. Minnesota - DaQuan Bowers
The Vikings are known for defense and Bowers with 15 sacks last year has an amazing amount of talent. While there are reservations about his knees, they just can't pass up the talent. Traditional sites think Locker or Mallet are the pick here due to QB issues, but they've played the old time qb and survived for years. Nothing changes here. The next (potential) T. Suggs is now a Viking.
13. Detroit - Gabe Carimi
The team, management, owner and fans are sick of seeing their QB destroyed the past 2 years. They have a good team and the only thing holding them back at this point is keeping QB1 off IR. Anthony Castonzo will be in the conversation, but the best OT in college last year was Gabe and he'll be a wonderful player for many years. Hometown kid only has to move a few miles down the road.
14. St. Louis - Anthony Castonzo
The Rams were wanting Green or Jones to fall to them, but Bradford has a big smile on his face when Anthony Castonzo is the pick. When you can't get the receiver you want, give the ones you have more time to get open. The WR's weren't horrible last year, but lack overall talent. Having Anthony on the team will keep Sam upright and the WR's will be working their tails off to become all they can be. Look for an even more improved Rams team this coming year.
15. Miami - Mike Pouncey
Tony Sparano (Head Coach) is an offensive line coach by nature. They have their eyes set on Ryan Mallet, Mike Pouncey and Mark Ingram at this point. Understand that they do NOT have a 2nd round pick. They know that taking Mallet at this point is a reach and they can resign Ricky Williams and/or Ronnie Brown. Pouncey has all the tools needed to anchor the front side of the o-line. With the head coach and management on board Pouncey is the pick.
16. Jacksonville - J.J. Watt
The Jaguars need help at the DE spot and J.J. has proven he can play at a high level. They will look at Ross and Jordan here, but with the production of J.J., his size and his ability to play in any condition will provide all the guys in the war room enough evidence to turn in the card.
17. New England (from Oakland) - Aldon Smith
Aldon has all the talent to be a top 10 pick. Billy Boy smiles as he somehow thinks his jedi mind trick to get top players much lower in the draft has worked again. New England doesn't have any major holes, so they have the freedom to look around. Aldon Smith will be meeting Peyton Manning before he knows it.
18. San Diego - Cameron Jordan
Cameron may not jump out at the average fan as a top flight talent. Coaches and scouts went back to the tapes after seeing Jordan own the Senior Bowl. What they saw on the tapes was a solid player. What they saw at the deeper level was a son of a former Pro Bowl NFL player. All of this, plus the need for another DE makes Jordan the pick.
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