Any fear of a 2021 1st round repeat?

Cardsfaninlouky

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Why even watch the draft if they are going to take another midget at WR. Not saying Dotson is not good but he does not round off the Cards offense appropriately based on his size. We need a freaking outside WR with length and some of that speed as well. WRs, CBs, it's the same idiocy if that's the selection. A collection of slot WRs, nickel corners which our Cards then move to the outside which lack the physicality for the parameters... this is really bumming me out for the draft because Peter Schrager is not that savvy, he has friends in our front office which is how you get this right again and again which I hope then I am wrong and he's another Roy Green
I want 2 Roy Greens lol.
 

oaken1

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What does the board think of Houston DT Logan Hall?

Football Outsiders just did a big breakdown of him.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Cards go there considering that we have a dire need at the position, and he likely reminds Keim of Calais Campbell.
I have been high on Hall for several weeks... Had him as a great choice for our third round slot, at DE.

but his draft stock seems to have gone up and he has a decent chance of going in the second round.

I wouldnt spend a 2nd on him...but would snatch him up in a hurry in the third.
 
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SoonerLou

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The draft is consistently one of my favorite things in sports. First year I can remember where the Cardinals ineptitude has impacted my excitement over it.

Dotson does nothing for me. Terrible breakout score and average measurables for a first round player. Small and not dynamic as a WR just isn't for me in the first round.

Dotson just seems like a high-end WR3 at best. Best ability being contested catching…while at 5’11 just leaves me as meh.
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Chopper0080

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For those who aren't aware, "breakout score" is a score generated based upon the age of a college WR when they "breakout". College dominator score is another stat that tries to pinpoint the age of a college when they dominate / become relevant. Teams like the Steelers have used this to great success when identifying WRs to target in the draft.

Guys like Mike Evans, Deandre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, allen robinson, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and many others hit this metric. Essentially, players who dominate in college prior to the age of 20 have a much higher likelihood of being viable in the NFL than those who breakout at or after age 20. Of all of the metrics, this is one that I see a large sample of top WRs hitting. More than size, speed, cone etc...

Dotson does not meet this. And without being outlier positive athlete, I would not use a 1st round pick on him.

Same with Burks, Wilson and Jameson Williams. Olave and Drake London hit. I will give a pass to Williams as he is pretty dynamic athletically, but I have even moved a bit off Wilson because of it.
 

Stout

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For those who aren't aware, "breakout score" is a score generated based upon the age of a college WR when they "breakout". College dominator score is another stat that tries to pinpoint the age of a college when they dominate / become relevant. Teams like the Steelers have used this to great success when identifying WRs to target in the draft.

Guys like Mike Evans, Deandre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, allen robinson, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and many others hit this metric. Essentially, players who dominate in college prior to the age of 20 have a much higher likelihood of being viable in the NFL than those who breakout at or after age 20. Of all of the metrics, this is one that I see a large sample of top WRs hitting. More than size, speed, cone etc...

Dotson does not meet this. And without being outlier positive athlete, I would not use a 1st round pick on him.

Same with Burks.
Mm hmm. Yeah, more advanced stats that make drafting an "easier" formula. Thank you, no.
 

Chopper0080

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Mm hmm. Yeah, more advanced stats that make drafting an "easier" formula. Thank you, no.
Again, NFL teams use these whether you agree with them or not. The Steelers have been pretty successful using this formula and selecting WRs.
 

Chopper0080

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Where it matters is that in college, WRs have such an advantage that if they are not breaking out at an early age, it probably means they aren't very special. It is not a "rule" but a shared characteristic of a high % of top NFL Wrs shouldn't be ignored.
 

Stout

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Again, NFL teams use these whether you agree with them or not. The Steelers have been pretty successful using this formula and selecting WRs.
That's great, but these advance stats are as hit and miss as everything else. I'm not basing who I want us to draft on yet another weird metric. That said, I'm not proclaiming him as "my guy," just that I'd be okay if we took him.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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That's great, but these advance stats are as hit and miss as everything else. I'm not basing who I want us to draft on yet another weird metric. That said, I'm not proclaiming him as "my guy," just that I'd be okay if we took him.
I don’t think anyone ever wants to base decisions on the stats, but they certainly help in more fully defining prospects and their projections.
 

Chopper0080

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I don’t think anyone ever wants to base decisions on the stats, but they certainly help in more fully defining prospects and their projections.
Agreed. This is why I am more comfortable looking at a guy like Jameson Williams in the first round who has elite athletic traits despite not hitting the breakout age dynamic VS a player like Jahan Dotson who doesn't test as anything special athletically.

In the first round I would just prefer to try and get a player who is special, especially at WR.
 

Stout

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Agreed. This is why I am more comfortable looking at a guy like Jameson Williams in the first round who has elite athletic traits despite not hitting the breakout age dynamic VS a player like Jahan Dotson who doesn't test as anything special athletically.

In the first round I would just prefer to try and get a player who is special, especially at WR.
I can't honestly take yinz two seriously about Dotson because you're pushing opinions as absolutes. You, Chopper, would prefer to get a player YOU THINK is special, not who IS special. I think Dotson can be special, and so do some experts; yinz, some stat guys, and other experts think he won't be. Whether it be poster or expert, nobody truly knows.
 

Chopper0080

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I can't honestly take yinz two seriously about Dotson because you're pushing opinions as absolutes. You, Chopper, would prefer to get a player YOU THINK is special, not who IS special. I think Dotson can be special, and so do some experts; yinz, some stat guys, and other experts think he won't be. Whether it be poster or expert, nobody truly knows.
When I say special I mean unique. There is nothing unique about 5'11, 195lbs and runs a 4.45 40. That is a fact. Tons of players fit that athletic profile every year.

Now let's look at his production over his college career. Also not special or unique. One season over 55 catches, Sr season. One season over 1000 yards, Sr season. One season 10+ TDs Sr season. He was a complete non-factor before his Jr. year. Again, nothing special here. Fact.

So, not athletically unique/special. Not unique/special from a production standpoint. My claim is that he is not a unique/special player which is why he is not a 1st round option for me. These aren't even really subjective areas to evaluate.
 

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When I say special I mean unique. There is nothing unique about 5'11, 195lbs and runs a 4.45 40. That is a fact. Tons of players fit that athletic profile every year.

Now let's look at his production over his college career. Also not special or unique. One season over 55 catches, Sr season. One season over 1000 yards, Sr season. One season 10+ TDs Sr season. He was a complete non-factor before his Jr. year. Again, nothing special here. Fact.

So, not athletically unique/special. Not unique/special from a production standpoint. My claim is that he is not a unique/special player which is why he is not a 1st round option for me. These aren't even really subjective areas to evaluate.
Many teams would disagree with you, as would many experts who are much, MUCH more talented and knowledgeable than you in talent evaluation. I mean, you have all the backing of your fan posting status to back up your "absolutes." Your post is the ultimate in hubris, as if you can just waltz in and state these things factually and shut the argument down as if there's not even room for debate. You've outdone yourself for laughable arrogance here, @Chopper0080 I mean, bravo lol
 

Chopper0080

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It's like Josh Jones. Josh Jones wasn't dominant in college until he was older, stronger and more experienced than his competition. That doesn't mean Jones can never be a good NFL player, but it does mean it is not likely that he is going to be a great one.
 

Chopper0080

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Many teams would disagree with you, as would many experts who are much, MUCH more talented and knowledgeable than you in talent evaluation. I mean, you have all the backing of your fan posting status to back up your "absolutes." Your post is the ultimate in hubris, as if you can just waltz in and state these things factually and shut the argument down as if there's not even room for debate. You've outdone yourself for laughable arrogance here, @Chopper0080 I mean, bravo lol
Can you pose an argument that isn't a personal attack? I am giving you facts here. No where have I said Dotson can't play in the NFL. However, based upon factors used by NFL teams, I don't believe he can be top player and therefore don't believe he is worth a first round pick.

Hell, I have even done research for you on the high number of top end NFL WRs who fit the breakout age model. Christian Kirk is included in that by-the-way.
 

Stout

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It's like Josh Jones. Josh Jones wasn't dominant in college until he was older, stronger and more experienced than his competition. That doesn't mean Jones can never be a good NFL player, but it does mean it is not likely that he is going to be a great one.
Sure, I buy your absolute, no argument stance here. Suuure I do.

The problem is that, even when you sound reasonable, I can't take you seriously, because of the ridiculously arrogant takes you just spewed. I'm 100 percent fine with that as your opinion, but you want to push your opinion as fact. lololololol I mean, why haven't you then been hired by some NFL team to run their draft? If you know it all and it's so easy to reduce to simple logic?
 

Stout

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Can you pose an argument that isn't a personal attack? I am giving you facts here. No where have I said Dotson can't play in the NFL. However, based upon factors used by NFL teams, I don't believe he can be top player and therefore don't believe he is worth a first round pick.
Putting it this way is reasonable; putting it in absolutes, as if no one else could dare argue the facts, like you just did, was arrogant.
 

Chopper0080

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A good top end for Dotson is probably Tyler Lockett or Jeremy Maclin though they both had better breakout scores than Dotson does. And Lockett was a 3rd rounder.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I can't honestly take yinz two seriously about Dotson because you're pushing opinions as absolutes. You, Chopper, would prefer to get a player YOU THINK is special, not who IS special. I think Dotson can be special, and so do some experts; yinz, some stat guys, and other experts think he won't be. Whether it be poster or expert, nobody truly knows.
I don’t have an opinion either way on him as I don’t know anything about him. I already said that I deferred to someone else’s opinion on him (maybe your’s!) due to that fact. I just understand how to incorporate additional data. I am by NO MEANS a metrics guy. But I don’t ignore or dismiss them either unless they’ve been proven to be fundamentally flawed.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Many teams would disagree with you, as would many experts who are much, MUCH more talented and knowledgeable than you in talent evaluation. I mean, you have all the backing of your fan posting status to back up your "absolutes." Your post is the ultimate in hubris, as if you can just waltz in and state these things factually and shut the argument down as if there's not even room for debate. You've outdone yourself for laughable arrogance here, @Chopper0080 I mean, bravo lol
Wow, stout. I think you’re out to lunch here. Everyone understands that’s chopper’s opinion and in discussing the two items (the metric and the physical attributes) he’s just explaining the basis for his opinion. That’s a lot of vitriol you’re unpacking there buddy.
 

DVontel

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Dotson will be a fine WR3. Maybe even WR2 if that team has a dominant TE.
 

Stout

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Wow, stout. I think you’re out to lunch here. Everyone understands that’s chopper’s opinion and in discussing the two items (the metric and the physical attributes) he’s just explaining the basis for his opinion. That’s a lot of vitriol you’re unpacking there buddy.
His one post was out-of-the world arrogant leaving no "subjective" basis for argument. So, yeah, calling him out on it. And he's not slowing down.
 
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