Diamondback Jay
Psalms 23:1
New Top 10 With Young Included
The Farm Report
By John Franco
The Arizona Diamondbacks
A deep farm system got deeper when the Diamondbacks picked up centerfielder Chris Young in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez. The Diamondbacks are on the verge of becoming overloaded with outfielders, especially given their commitments at the major league level, but prospects this talented are a pleasant problem to have. Arizona had the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft and selected shortstop Justin Upton; the two sides have had on-again, off-again negotiations throughout the Fall and Winter, but it is encouraging that Upton is still negotiating with the Diamondbacks. Were he to sign, Upton would only rank fifth in this talented system.
The Diamondbacks’ farm system is also top-heavy, with most of their top prospects ready for the major leagues and very little talent at the lower levels of their system. Given that Arizona drafted mostly college pitchers after picking Upton (in order to address their pitching shortage at the major league level), they are likely to remain top-heavy for at least another year.
Carlos Quentin
OF
Quentin is a solid defensive outfielder who uses excellent instincts and good jumps to play an adequate centerfield despite his average speed. He is unlikely to stick as a centerfielder in the majors, but with Chris Young on board and Justin Upton a candidate to play centerfield if he signs, the Diamondbacks are not worried. Quentin has a plus arm and fits well in right field. Offensively, he is a patient hitter with good pitch recognition and excellent raw power. Quentin batted .301/.422/.520 with 21 home runs in hitter-friendly Tucson, and he has the potential to better those numbers in the major leagues at his peak.
ETA: 2006.
Chris Young
OF
Young was ranked the White Sox’ No. 1 prospect before being traded to Arizona, and narrowly misses the top spot on the Diamondbacks’ list. He is a dynamic five-tool player with great speed, a plus arm and excellent raw power. Young nearly posted a 30/30 season as a 21-year old at AA, and an oblique strain that cost him two weeks might have been the only thing that stopped him. Young already uses his speed well, stealing 32 bases with an 84 percent success rate and combining his speed with great jumps in center field. He still needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition in order to make more consistent contact, but Young showed the ability to make adjustments during the season at Birmingham. If you don’t believe in Moneyball, you might consider Young to be Arizona’s No. 1 prospect – for me, Quentin’s plate discipline just barely outweighs Young’s speed and ability to play a tougher defensive position.
ETA: 2007.
Stephen Drew
SS
Drew has all the talent in the world – he might be the most talented player on this list, which is at worst the third best list in baseball behind the two Los Angeles teams. He is a plus defender at shortstop with good range and a great arm, and he is a plus runner with good instincts on the bases. Drew also has a smooth swing that generates consistent line drives and the ability to hit the ball out of the park, profiling as at least a 40 double, 20 home run hitter. He is an aggressive hitter, but he also knows how to take a walk if the situation dictates it and the mood suits him. The only thing preventing Drew from a lengthy streak of All-Star appearances is his personality. While he plays hard when he wants to, he needs to exhibit a more consistent approach on the field. Off the field, Drew has proven difficult to get along with, but if he hits, his teammates will tolerate him. This high ranking reflects his natural talent and my opinion that he can at least summon the effort to play hard, if not the effort to play well with others.
ETA: 2007.
Conor Jackson
1B/OF
Jackson could rank as the No. 1 prospect for many teams despite his unimpressive debut in the major leagues: a .200 average in 85 at-bats. He has tremendous plate discipline and projects to draw 100-plus walks a year in the major leagues. Jackson also uses his outstanding pitch recognition to maximize his average power – by identifying pitches he can drive, he can add 10 home runs a year to his projected total of 20-25 per season. This also gives Jackson the ability to use the whole field as a line-drive hitter in the rest of his at-bats. While he is a force to be reckoned with offensively, Jackson is not up to the level of the players ahead of him on defense. He has below average speed that makes him a liability in the outfield, though a shortage of depth in the outfield is not a problem in the Arizona organization at the moment. Jackson is blocked by Tony Clark at first base, so he may end up playing a few different positions in 2006 before settling down.
ETA: 2006.
Dustin Nippert
SP
Nippert rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons to dominate the Southern League in 2005, leading the league in ERA with a mark of 2.38 in 117.2 innings of work. He is an imposing figure on the mound at six-foot-seven, and uses his size to get good downward movement on his pitches and to intimidate hitters. Nippert has a good, diving fastball in the 92-95 range and touched 97 during the year. He also has a good changeup that he can sink or fade as needed and an improving curveball. Since he had Tommy John surgery in 2004, it is understandable that Nippert struggled with his consistency in 2005, but if he is healthy in 2006 he should earn a place as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
ETA: 2007.
Carlos Gonzalez
OF
You’ve heard of the Diamondbacks’ top three outfielders, but Gonzalez is talented enough to make the group a foursome. He won the Midwest League MVP Award and was named the league’s most exciting player, showing four impressive tools and hitting .307 with 52 extra-base hits in 515 at-bats. His only weakness is his below average speed, but he gets good jumps in right field and has a tremendous arm. Gonzalez has an effortless left-handed swing that generates good power, and he could be a 30-35 home run hitter in the major leagues. He needs to prove himself against tougher competition, but he showed pretty good plate discipline and adaptability at South Bend that should help him as he moves through the organization.
ETA: 2009.
Miguel Montero
C
Montero had a breakout season in 2005, showing dramatic improvement both offensively and defensively. He was in the running for the Cal League triple crown despite the presence of Brandon Wood, but Montero was eventually promoted and Wood just kept on crushing the ball at High-A. Montero finished with a line of .349/.403/.625 with 24 home runs in 355 at-bats at Lancaster, thanks in part to a friendly home park where he hit over .400. Montero did hit 13 of his 24 home runs away from Lancaster, but hit just .250 with two home runs in 108 at-bats after he was promoted to Double-A. There were reports that he was bothered by injuries after his promotion, but regardless of any possible excuses, he will need to prove himself at a higher level in 2006. Montero also took a step forward defensively to become an adequate defender behind the plate – his arm is just average, and his accuracy is still below average, but his footwork and blocking were much better.
ETA: 2008.
Garrett Mock
SP
As friendly as the Lancaster park was to the Diamondbacks’ High-A hitters, it was equally unfriendly to their pitchers. Mock posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 160:33 with excellent stuff, but still surrendered 202 hits and a 4.18 ERA. Mock also gave up 19 home runs despite a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.53, partly because he needs to improve the consistency of his secondary pitches. He has a hard, sinking fastball that sits in the 92-94 range and reaches 96, but his curveball is average at best and his changeup is below average. Mock showed good poise in Lancaster and should be rewarded with a promotion he will surely appreciate; his curveball has shown the potential to be a plus pitch, and he will need to improve that in order to conquer the hurdle of Double-A.
ETA: 2007.
Enrique Gonzalez
SP
Gonzalez followed up a strong 2004 campaign with a solid season at AA Tennessee in 2005, posting a 3.46 ERA in 161.1 innings of work. He also struck out 146 batters while walking just 52, and posted a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.31. Gonzalez has good command and throws strikes with his mid-90s fastball, and complements it well with a slightly above average slider, but sometimes gets in trouble when he needs to throw an off-speed pitch. His curveball and changeup both need improvement, and at 23 he is starting to run out of time to become an impact starter. If Gonzalez can improve his secondary pitches, he can be a solid No. 4 starter, but he is already equipped to be a good middle reliever.
ETA: 2006.
Matt Torra
SP
Torra was the Diamondbacks’ second pick in the 2005 draft, a supplemental first rounder from the University of Massachusetts. He endured a heavy workload at UMass and suffered arm troubles after signing, but Arizona was relieved to learn that it was only tendonitis. He has a strong frame (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and at 21 he is still young enough to survive Tommy John surgery if it does become necessary. Torra throws a good low-90s fastball and complements it with a plus curveball; his changeup is below average right now since he rarely threw it in college, but looks like it can become an average pitch with more frequent use. With a good (healthy) year between Low-A and High-A in 2006, Torra can be a year ahead of where Gonzalez is now at the end of 2006.
ETA: 2008
The Farm Report
By John Franco
The Arizona Diamondbacks
A deep farm system got deeper when the Diamondbacks picked up centerfielder Chris Young in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez. The Diamondbacks are on the verge of becoming overloaded with outfielders, especially given their commitments at the major league level, but prospects this talented are a pleasant problem to have. Arizona had the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft and selected shortstop Justin Upton; the two sides have had on-again, off-again negotiations throughout the Fall and Winter, but it is encouraging that Upton is still negotiating with the Diamondbacks. Were he to sign, Upton would only rank fifth in this talented system.
The Diamondbacks’ farm system is also top-heavy, with most of their top prospects ready for the major leagues and very little talent at the lower levels of their system. Given that Arizona drafted mostly college pitchers after picking Upton (in order to address their pitching shortage at the major league level), they are likely to remain top-heavy for at least another year.
Carlos Quentin
OF
Quentin is a solid defensive outfielder who uses excellent instincts and good jumps to play an adequate centerfield despite his average speed. He is unlikely to stick as a centerfielder in the majors, but with Chris Young on board and Justin Upton a candidate to play centerfield if he signs, the Diamondbacks are not worried. Quentin has a plus arm and fits well in right field. Offensively, he is a patient hitter with good pitch recognition and excellent raw power. Quentin batted .301/.422/.520 with 21 home runs in hitter-friendly Tucson, and he has the potential to better those numbers in the major leagues at his peak.
ETA: 2006.
Chris Young
OF
Young was ranked the White Sox’ No. 1 prospect before being traded to Arizona, and narrowly misses the top spot on the Diamondbacks’ list. He is a dynamic five-tool player with great speed, a plus arm and excellent raw power. Young nearly posted a 30/30 season as a 21-year old at AA, and an oblique strain that cost him two weeks might have been the only thing that stopped him. Young already uses his speed well, stealing 32 bases with an 84 percent success rate and combining his speed with great jumps in center field. He still needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition in order to make more consistent contact, but Young showed the ability to make adjustments during the season at Birmingham. If you don’t believe in Moneyball, you might consider Young to be Arizona’s No. 1 prospect – for me, Quentin’s plate discipline just barely outweighs Young’s speed and ability to play a tougher defensive position.
ETA: 2007.
Stephen Drew
SS
Drew has all the talent in the world – he might be the most talented player on this list, which is at worst the third best list in baseball behind the two Los Angeles teams. He is a plus defender at shortstop with good range and a great arm, and he is a plus runner with good instincts on the bases. Drew also has a smooth swing that generates consistent line drives and the ability to hit the ball out of the park, profiling as at least a 40 double, 20 home run hitter. He is an aggressive hitter, but he also knows how to take a walk if the situation dictates it and the mood suits him. The only thing preventing Drew from a lengthy streak of All-Star appearances is his personality. While he plays hard when he wants to, he needs to exhibit a more consistent approach on the field. Off the field, Drew has proven difficult to get along with, but if he hits, his teammates will tolerate him. This high ranking reflects his natural talent and my opinion that he can at least summon the effort to play hard, if not the effort to play well with others.
ETA: 2007.
Conor Jackson
1B/OF
Jackson could rank as the No. 1 prospect for many teams despite his unimpressive debut in the major leagues: a .200 average in 85 at-bats. He has tremendous plate discipline and projects to draw 100-plus walks a year in the major leagues. Jackson also uses his outstanding pitch recognition to maximize his average power – by identifying pitches he can drive, he can add 10 home runs a year to his projected total of 20-25 per season. This also gives Jackson the ability to use the whole field as a line-drive hitter in the rest of his at-bats. While he is a force to be reckoned with offensively, Jackson is not up to the level of the players ahead of him on defense. He has below average speed that makes him a liability in the outfield, though a shortage of depth in the outfield is not a problem in the Arizona organization at the moment. Jackson is blocked by Tony Clark at first base, so he may end up playing a few different positions in 2006 before settling down.
ETA: 2006.
Dustin Nippert
SP
Nippert rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons to dominate the Southern League in 2005, leading the league in ERA with a mark of 2.38 in 117.2 innings of work. He is an imposing figure on the mound at six-foot-seven, and uses his size to get good downward movement on his pitches and to intimidate hitters. Nippert has a good, diving fastball in the 92-95 range and touched 97 during the year. He also has a good changeup that he can sink or fade as needed and an improving curveball. Since he had Tommy John surgery in 2004, it is understandable that Nippert struggled with his consistency in 2005, but if he is healthy in 2006 he should earn a place as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
ETA: 2007.
Carlos Gonzalez
OF
You’ve heard of the Diamondbacks’ top three outfielders, but Gonzalez is talented enough to make the group a foursome. He won the Midwest League MVP Award and was named the league’s most exciting player, showing four impressive tools and hitting .307 with 52 extra-base hits in 515 at-bats. His only weakness is his below average speed, but he gets good jumps in right field and has a tremendous arm. Gonzalez has an effortless left-handed swing that generates good power, and he could be a 30-35 home run hitter in the major leagues. He needs to prove himself against tougher competition, but he showed pretty good plate discipline and adaptability at South Bend that should help him as he moves through the organization.
ETA: 2009.
Miguel Montero
C
Montero had a breakout season in 2005, showing dramatic improvement both offensively and defensively. He was in the running for the Cal League triple crown despite the presence of Brandon Wood, but Montero was eventually promoted and Wood just kept on crushing the ball at High-A. Montero finished with a line of .349/.403/.625 with 24 home runs in 355 at-bats at Lancaster, thanks in part to a friendly home park where he hit over .400. Montero did hit 13 of his 24 home runs away from Lancaster, but hit just .250 with two home runs in 108 at-bats after he was promoted to Double-A. There were reports that he was bothered by injuries after his promotion, but regardless of any possible excuses, he will need to prove himself at a higher level in 2006. Montero also took a step forward defensively to become an adequate defender behind the plate – his arm is just average, and his accuracy is still below average, but his footwork and blocking were much better.
ETA: 2008.
Garrett Mock
SP
As friendly as the Lancaster park was to the Diamondbacks’ High-A hitters, it was equally unfriendly to their pitchers. Mock posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 160:33 with excellent stuff, but still surrendered 202 hits and a 4.18 ERA. Mock also gave up 19 home runs despite a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.53, partly because he needs to improve the consistency of his secondary pitches. He has a hard, sinking fastball that sits in the 92-94 range and reaches 96, but his curveball is average at best and his changeup is below average. Mock showed good poise in Lancaster and should be rewarded with a promotion he will surely appreciate; his curveball has shown the potential to be a plus pitch, and he will need to improve that in order to conquer the hurdle of Double-A.
ETA: 2007.
Enrique Gonzalez
SP
Gonzalez followed up a strong 2004 campaign with a solid season at AA Tennessee in 2005, posting a 3.46 ERA in 161.1 innings of work. He also struck out 146 batters while walking just 52, and posted a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.31. Gonzalez has good command and throws strikes with his mid-90s fastball, and complements it well with a slightly above average slider, but sometimes gets in trouble when he needs to throw an off-speed pitch. His curveball and changeup both need improvement, and at 23 he is starting to run out of time to become an impact starter. If Gonzalez can improve his secondary pitches, he can be a solid No. 4 starter, but he is already equipped to be a good middle reliever.
ETA: 2006.
Matt Torra
SP
Torra was the Diamondbacks’ second pick in the 2005 draft, a supplemental first rounder from the University of Massachusetts. He endured a heavy workload at UMass and suffered arm troubles after signing, but Arizona was relieved to learn that it was only tendonitis. He has a strong frame (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and at 21 he is still young enough to survive Tommy John surgery if it does become necessary. Torra throws a good low-90s fastball and complements it with a plus curveball; his changeup is below average right now since he rarely threw it in college, but looks like it can become an average pitch with more frequent use. With a good (healthy) year between Low-A and High-A in 2006, Torra can be a year ahead of where Gonzalez is now at the end of 2006.
ETA: 2008
