15 thoughts - training camp

DVontel

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You know I think no preseason should actually improve our chances against SF.

That first game is likely to be very very sloppy.

You are right of course about the center spot, but the way I look at it is they are replacing a guy who was average at best, and cole has already shown himself to not be terrible at guard. My expectations aren't high, but at least we are playing a young guy that has potential to improve.

I'm not that worried about the defensive players you listed, all with the exception of Simmons got significant playing time last season or are experienced veterans. Simmons seems to have a sky high football IQ, so I'm not really worried about him either. Well actually I am worried about Zach Allen, I am really hoping Griffen takes his spot soon.

I am far more worried about our Corners and D-line than I am our LB's and Safeties. I actually think this is the best linebacker group the AZ cards have ever had.
Maybe if you didn’t watch the 2013 team.
 

DVontel

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@Chopper0080 I get the optimism, but man, this was a 5-11 team with maybe two good wins, and we don't have an offseason either. We're a young team that placed last defensively, and are returning that same defensive coach with a young HC that made plenty of mistakes in pure game management.

We played some really bad teams last year and just barely got by. I think we're improved, but to be nearly at our previous win total by week 5? That's some pretty strong kool-aid to be drinking.
It’s not kool-aid, it’s a fair assessment.


I disagree with Chop about the 11 wins though. As much as I love Kyler & Kliff, I still don’t like Vance. We have washed up boundary CBs & the DTs/DEs are a bit cause of concern.


I think 9-7 will happen. Maybe 10-6 if Kyler super-accelerates into stardom.
 

Proximo

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It’s not kool-aid, it’s a fair assessment.


I disagree with Chop about the 11 wins though. As much as I love Kyler & Kliff, I still don’t like Vance. We have washed up boundary CBs & the DTs/DEs are a bit cause of concern.


I think 9-7 will happen. Maybe 10-6 if Kyler super-accelerates into stardom.

This is pretty much where I am at too.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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I disagree. You can't base your opinion of the schedule based upon last year's records, but you can based upon their current situations.

I understand your point, but it requires that you have a good idea of how players will perform, and like I said – that changes all the time. Much more than in other sports (at least the one I follow). There are many factors that goes into it, and many of them we have no idea of. So I don’t put a lot of stock into it, since my guess is not very qualified anyway. Without looking it up, I think the average of new playoff teams each year is seven.
 

Chopper0080

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I understand your point, but it requires that you have a good idea of how players will perform, and like I said – that changes all the time. Much more than in other sports (at least the one I follow). There are many factors that goes into it, and many of them we have no idea of. So I don’t put a lot of stock into it, since my guess is not very qualified anyway. Without looking it up, I think the average of new playoff teams each year is seven.
If you get into fantasy football and into betting, you get a decent handle on things.

Turnover differential is always a good indicator of regressing to the mean.

Coaching turnover and scheme changes tend to impact teams negatively though teams with better rosters adjust easier.

Schedule composition is important. If you play on the road with short rest, those are looked at as closer games regardless of schedule. For teams that had significant offseason changes, the early schedule will be tougher than expected.

Out of conference schedules are a huge impact in forecasting records. Example is that if a team had to play the NFC West or the NFC South vs the AFC North or AFC East or NFC East right now.

You are correct that there are plenty of variables and things that can happen, but I have been successful enough over the years that I disagree that it is the mystery you feel it is.

An example...I made money on the Browns last year betting the under on their season win total. There was zero luck (in truth, very little) in the outcome of that bet. Too many factors were against that team.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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You are correct that there are plenty of variables and things that can happen, but I have been successful enough over the years that I disagree that it is the mystery you feel it is.

An example...I made money on the Browns last year betting the under on their season win total. There was zero luck (in truth, very little) in the outcome of that bet. Too many factors were against that team.

Maybe I have given the wrong impression. I do think it is a mystery, but I also think it is way too easy to just give up on predictions. I don’t disagree with you there. My point is that we – the fans – don’t have access to knowledge on many of the variables, and thus our predictions becomes based on (what I consider to be) too few elements. I would argue that it was luck that won you that bet last year. I actually had the same bet as you, but I do still think much of the hype around the Browns were warranted based on what we knew in the public.

I don’t expect Washington, Detroit, Carolina and the Jets to take a big step forward – or the Niners to take a big step backwards – but nor would I be surprised if any of it happened. So that is why I don’t put much stock into the schedule.
 
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Gandhi

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Bump. Simply because I can.

By the way, I am worrying we won't know about any of these points because of the restricted media availability.
 

Garthshort

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Gandhi, thanks. Just want to talk about your Isaiah Simmons point, and not playing him at just one position. The team, supposedly feels differently. I have no idea who is correct, and we'll won't know. Now, your argument will have more juice if Campbell is able to keep him off the field and reduces his snaps. But if that happens, being a first round pick, the team will find a way to get him on the field. My guess is that if Campbell is looking good the team is already introducing him to other positions. JMO.
 

kerouac9

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I didn’t realize this was an old thread. I’m interested in whether Chopper is still thinking home and road are going to be big determiners if there’re no fans.

the research is that home field advantage is largely based on officials tilting the playing field because of a context of noisy fans. If there are no fans to influence the refs, there may be no significant home field advantage.
 

slanidrac16

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Well yes, but if you rewatch most of the games in the second half of the season the cards were the better team or at least on par, but managed to lose more than they won.

For instance there is no way the cards should have lost the TB game. They easily could have won both SF games as well. The Pitt and Rams games were very winnable as well.

I really feel like Hopkins alone wins us two or three of those games.

Two things killed our offense last year, red zone and 2 minute drill. I am confident Kliff will at least get the redzone solved.

On D our personnel should be better. I see no reason the D will not be improved.

Well our defense can’t get any worse!
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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Gandhi, thanks. Just want to talk about your Isaiah Simmons point, and not playing him at just one position. The team, supposedly feels differently. I have no idea who is correct, and we'll won't know. Now, your argument will have more juice if Campbell is able to keep him off the field and reduces his snaps. But if that happens, being a first round pick, the team will find a way to get him on the field. My guess is that if Campbell is looking good the team is already introducing him to other positions. JMO.

Garth, I agree with you, but would you want to utilize a top ten pick “just to get him on the field”? Wouldn’t you want him to be better than his direct challenger? I don’t know the answer myself, so please help me.

I completely agree with the teams’ view, by the way. Especially in an offseason like this it seems dangerous to ask him to do too much.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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I didn’t realize this was an old thread. I’m interested in whether Chopper is still thinking home and road are going to be big determiners if there’re no fans.

the research is that home field advantage is largely based on officials tilting the playing field because of a context of noisy fans. If there are no fans to influence the refs, there may be no significant home field advantage.

That is a great point, Kerouac! It might be very important.
 

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