2003 Projections

[DWKB]

Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
Gonzale	580	88	78	35	177	33	4	5	0.305	0.397	0.559	0.956	129
Womack	575	37	73	5	153	22	7	34	0.266	0.311	0.352	0.662	63
Spivey	540	69	116	14	145	30	7	13	0.268	0.351	0.427	0.778	81
Finley	525	54	81	21	140	28	3	12	0.267	0.335	0.454	0.789	80
Counsel	445	53	63	3	121	21	2	6	0.271	0.349	0.347	0.695	54
Bautist	400	25	57	12	118	20	5	6	0.295	0.337	0.455	0.791	61
Overbay	400	32	90	11	109	25	1	2	0.272	0.327	0.421	0.748	55
Moeller	400	36	99	11	95	20	1	2	0.237	0.300	0.372	0.672	45
William	375	24	64	15	100	20	2	2	0.268	0.311	0.452	0.763	53
McCrack	325	25	60	3	90	20	4	7	0.278	0.330	0.388	0.717	42
Grace	250	37	21	5	70	16	1	1	0.279	0.372	0.417	0.789	39
Barajas	250	10	48	7	55	14	0	2	0.218	0.250	0.357	0.606	22
Cintron	250	8	37	2	58	12	2	4	0.234	0.258	0.313	0.571	20
Dellucc	195	25	46	5	52	9	2	2	0.267	0.349	0.421	0.770	29
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total	5510	523	933	149	1483	290	41	98	0.269	0.332	0.418	0.750	772
2002	5508	643	1016	165	1471	283	41	92	0.267	0.346	0.423	0.769	819

 

[Dback Jon]

And whose conjecture is this?

I would say Bautista is low as well.

One thing I learned playing Fantasy Baseball - the preseason projections are just that - some are high, some are low, few are right on.

 

[schillingfan]

Where did 121 walks go?

Why didn't you put up the pitching projections, too? D-Backs were naturally 1-2 in the NL. They also rated Miguel Batista highly.

 

[DWKB]

Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year


The MLE's are still in progress ( which is why Overbay and Cintron are so low ). And of course Gonzo's fluke 2001 year really stresses my regression.

I have not done pitching projections yet so there are none to show.

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

 

[Dback Jon]

Thanks - there was no clue that these were your own.......

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Dback Jon
Thanks - there was no clue that these were your own.......

I would have assumed that this line:

I just can't predict Overbay correctly.

would have given that clue but I must have assumed incorrectly.

 

[Dback Jon]

Originally posted by DWKB
I would have assumed that this line:

I just can't predict Overbay correctly.

would have given that clue but I must have assumed incorrectly.

And I would have assumed it referred to the previous line:

Overbay is way low and Cintron I believe is low but Gonzo is way high and Grace I believe is high.

 

[AZCB34]

Originally posted by DWKB
Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year


The MLE's are still in progress ( which is why Overbay and Cintron are so low ). And of course Gonzo's fluke 2001 year really stresses my regression.

I have not done pitching projections yet so there are none to show.

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

Very interesting. I am going to print this out and see how close you come as well. Won't use it against you if wrong

I am not a stats guy very much but am always interested in how people use them, predict them.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Is this the new PECOTA method put out by Nate Silver?

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Is this the new PECOTA method put out by Nate Silver?

No I'm sure his is much more advanced.

I'll probably post some tidbits when I get BP03 in in Feb.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by DWKB
Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

Sorry, didn't realize you did them yourself. Looks like a lot of work.

Durazo had 49 walks in 222 at bats. Colby walked 13 times. Pro-rated to 500 at bats that wouldn't equal 121 once you add in those at bats to Overbay who I think walked a decent amount until last year.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by schillingfan
Sorry, didn't realize you did them yourself. Looks like a lot of work.

Durazo had 49 walks in 222 at bats. Colby walked 13 times. Pro-rated to 500 at bats that wouldn't equal 121 once you add in those at bats to Overbay who I think walked a decent amount until last year.

Well yes, I've already said Overbay was most likely under-rated with the system, but I don't think he will get as many BBs as Durazo. Not even close. Durazo avg 5.5 ABs per BB in the majors. Overbay wasn't better than 7.5 in his career and that was in rookie ball. Overbay will most likely be around 10-11 ABs per BB in the majors.


On top of that, the DBacks overperformed in the BB catagory last year. If you look at '01 ( 587 ) you automatically lose 56. Go back to '00 ( 535 ) and you lose another 52.

I have Gonzo regressing a bit more back to normal from his 100 BB two year avg.

Miller avg a little more than 7.5 ABs per BB last year and there is no way Moeller and Barajas have that kind of avg.

I think you can easliy get 121 BBs out of these permutations.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Dback Jon


I would say Bautista is low as well.

I am curious as to what basis you have for this opinion.

 

[Dback Jon]

Originally posted by DWKB
I am curious as to what basis you have for this opinion.

Mainly the Home Run total, etc. If he can rebound and play like he started to in 2002, I would think he could get 20-25 HRs.

I know he has never hit more than 11 in a year, but he was showing more pop. Playing everyday, and he is at the age when many develop HR power, I would certainly hope for more.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Dback Jon
Mainly the Home Run total, etc. If he can rebound and play like he started to in 2002, I would think he could get 20-25 HRs.

I know he has never hit more than 11 in a year, but he was showing more pop. Playing everyday, and he is at the age when many develop HR power, I would certainly hope for more.

Again, even if he could turn that hot 1st half in '02 into a fulls season of '03 he would need 550 ABs to reach 20 HR.

I just don't see it happening.


( And of course "hope" doesn't factor in projections )

 

[DWKB]

The edit above has a new projection for Overbay where I was able to correct a mistake. This new projection I am much more comfortable with and it makes me feel much more reliant on the system. For those who care, obviously

 

[DWKB]

Well I tried my hand at pitcher projections (which is 10x as hard to do) and I thought I could post it to generate some discussion.

Player	ERA	IP	ER
Johnson	2.58	255.0	73
Schilli	3.13	252.7	88
Patters	4.58	182.7	93
Kim	3.23	181.3	65
Dessens	4.40	178.0	87
Batista	4.32	129.3	62
Koplove	3.59	 60.7	24
Mantei	3.81	 56.7	24
Jackson	4.31	 48.0	23
Myers	4.31	 39.7	19
Swindel	4.67	 29.0	15
Villone	4.88	 20.3	11
Prinz	4.12	 13.3	 6
----------------------------
TOTAL	3.67	1446.7	590

This, of course, has a much higher error % than the hitting projections have (I hope). I get about 632 total runs once you accont for UER.

At 632 RA and 772 RS that would give us a Pythagorean Projection of 96-66. Wouldn't that be nice

 

[Derek in Tucson]

At 632 RA and 772 RS that would give us a Pythagorean Projection of 96-66. Wouldn't that be nice

I'd say! That should be good enough to win another division title, or at least produce a Wild Card. Gee, all those gloom and doom posts this offseason didn't really have a lot to worrry about, now did they?

 

[Moose Lady]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
I'd say! That should be good enough to win another division title, or at least produce a Wild Card. Gee, all those gloom and doom posts this offseason didn't really have a lot to worrry about, now did they?

No, they sure didn't Derek. You would think they would get tired of always talking gloom and doom. I think they were upset because we didn't do alot of trading or picking up new players. And the best reason for that was, We Didn't Need a Bunch of New Guys.

 

[DWKB]

Well basically 1/2 of the way through the season I thought I'd compare how my projections are going vs. real life. I've added Kata, Hammock, and Hillenbrand to the list. (For each player, the first line is the projection and the second line is real life)

Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gonzale	326	50	44	20	100	19	3	3	0.307	0.399	0.567	0.966
	326	41	34	17	104	30	1	4	0.319	0.395	0.574	0.969
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Finley	260	27	40	11	70	14	2	6	0.269	0.338	0.465	0.803
	260	33	55	13	79	14	4	7	0.304	0.382	0.538	0.921
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Womack	219	14	28	2	58	8	3	13	0.265	0.309	0.356	0.665
	219	8	27	2	52	10	3	8	0.237	0.264	0.338	0.602
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Spivey	204	26	44	5	54	11	2	5	0.265	0.348	0.412	0.760
	204	16	52	9	52	11	0	1	0.255	0.309	0.441	0.750
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Overbay	203	16	46	5	55	13	1	1	0.271	0.324	0.419	0.743
	203	25	53	4	58	17	0	0	0.286	0.364	0.429	0.793
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Cintron	178	6	26	1	42	8	1	3	0.236	0.261	0.309	0.570
	178	13	10	7	53	12	1	1	0.298	0.346	0.494	0.840
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Bautist	173	11	25	5	51	8	2	3	0.295	0.337	0.451	0.788
	173	9	28	1	45	7	1	2	0.260	0.297	0.329	0.626
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Moeller	166	15	41	5	40	8	0	1	0.241	0.304	0.380	0.683
	166	15	37	6	52	12	0	1	0.313	0.370	0.494	0.864
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Baerga	148	9	20	3	41	7	1	3	0.277	0.318	0.399	0.717
	148	7	11	3	48	13	0	1	0.324	0.355	0.473	0.828
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
William	134	8	23	5	36	7	1	1	0.269	0.310	0.448	0.758
	134	16	26	4	33	9	0	0	0.246	0.327	0.403	0.730
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Barajas	134	6	26	4	30	8	0	1	0.224	0.257	0.373	0.630
	134	5	26	2	31	12	0	0	0.231	0.259	0.366	0.625
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Dellucc	132	17	31	4	35	6	1	1	0.265	0.349	0.417	0.766
	132	16	35	2	35	11	3	6	0.265	0.345	0.439	0.784
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
McCrack	120	9	22	1	33	7	1	3	0.275	0.326	0.375	0.701
	120	9	19	0	25	3	1	3	0.208	0.264	0.250	0.514
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Counsel	116	14	16	1	32	6	1	1	0.276	0.354	0.371	0.725
	116	20	16	1	32	4	1	5	0.276	0.382	0.353	0.736
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Grace	107	16	9	2	30	7	0	0	0.280	0.374	0.402	0.776
	107	15	10	3	22	4	0	0	0.206	0.303	0.327	0.630
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Hammock	95	7	26	2	19	4	1	1	0.200	0.255	0.326	0.581
	95	4	16	5	28	5	2	2	0.295	0.323	0.547	0.871
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Kata	71	4	15	1	13	3	1	2	0.183	0.227	0.296	0.522
	71	8	14	4	26	6	0	0	0.366	0.430	0.620	1.050
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------	
Hillenb	54	2	7	1	14	3	0	0	0.259	0.286	0.370	0.656
	54	3	7	2	14	4	1	0	0.259	0.298	0.481	0.780

Well I didn't realize how right right I was about Cintron being too low and Grace being too high <laughing>

So, Jon, do you still think I projected Bautista too low?

Schillingfan, do you still think I projected too little BBs?

 

[schillingfan]

Not sure what your numbers are for? First row is projected production to date given number of at bats and second is actual?

 

[DWKB]

Well we've got 2 mos left so I thought I'd update my projections on here in case anybody would like to see. Again, the first line is my projection over the amount of ABs and the second is the actual stats as of 8/2/03.

Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gonzale	407	62	55	24	124	23	3	4	0.305	0.397	0.553	0.949
	407	57	43	18	128	36	1	4	0.314	0.399	0.541	0.939
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finley	350	36	54	14	93	19	2	8	0.266	0.334	0.451	0.786
	350	38	62	17	108	15	7	8	0.309	0.376	0.537	0.913
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cintron	249	8	37	2	58	11	2	4	0.233	0.257	0.317	0.574
	249	18	16	8	73	13	1	1	0.293	0.341	0.450	0.791
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spivey	229	29	49	6	62	13	3	6	0.271	0.353	0.432	0.785
	229	17	55	9	56	12	1	1	0.245	0.297	0.424	0.720
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overbay	227	18	51	6	62	15	1	1	0.273	0.327	0.427	0.754
	227	32	60	4	62	18	0	0	0.273	0.363	0.405	0.768
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Womack	219	14	28	2	58	8	3	13	0.265	0.309	0.356	0.665
	219	8	27	2	52	10	3	8	0.237	0.264	0.338	0.602
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Moeller	215	19	53	6	51	11	0	1	0.237	0.299	0.372	0.671
	215	19	54	6	61	16	1	1	0.284	0.342	0.451	0.793
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Counsel	195	23	27	1	53	9	1	3	0.272	0.349	0.344	0.692
	195	30	22	3	50	5	2	7	0.256	0.356	0.349	0.704
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bautist	192	12	27	6	57	9	2	3	0.297	0.338	0.458	0.797
	192	12	34	1	50	8	1	2	0.260	0.304	0.328	0.632
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dellucc	165	21	39	5	44	8	2	1	0.267	0.349	0.430	0.780
	165	19	45	2	40	11	3	9	0.242	0.321	0.382	0.702
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McCrack	163	13	30	1	45	10	2	3	0.276	0.330	0.380	0.710
	163	13	28	0	38	4	2	4	0.233	0.290	0.282	0.572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baerga	161	10	21	3	44	7	1	3	0.273	0.316	0.385	0.701
	161	9	14	4	51	13	0	1	0.317	0.353	0.472	0.825
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Barajas	157	7	30	4	34	9	0	1	0.217	0.250	0.350	0.600
	157	5	33	2	37	13	0	0	0.236	0.259	0.357	0.616
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hillenb	145	5	19	4	38	8	1	1	0.262	0.287	0.414	0.700
	145	8	16	8	47	11	1	0	0.324	0.359	0.579	0.939
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kata	141	7	30	2	27	6	2	3	0.191	0.230	0.305	0.535
	141	14	28	6	41	9	0	0	0.291	0.355	0.482	0.837
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
William	134	8	23	5	36	7	1	1	0.269	0.310	0.448	0.758
	134	16	26	4	33	9	0	0	0.246	0.327	0.403	0.730
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grace	119	18	10	3	33	7	0	0	0.277	0.372	0.412	0.784
	119	15	13	3	24	4	0	0	0.202	0.291	0.311	0.602
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hammock	106	8	29	2	21	4	1	1	0.198	0.254	0.311	0.566
	106	5	22	5	29	5	2	2	0.274	0.306	0.500	0.806
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

 

[Ryanwb]

Nothing like tooting your own horn eh?

 

[schillingfan]

Well I found it interesting. Not sure why you say tooting his own horn. Some were near, some above, some below. I imagine that's normal because no player does his average every year.

 

[Stan C]

I think I'd have to give his system some credit. From somebody who works with statistics for a living, those predictions are pretty damn close, and no one expects a model to be perfect. At least they shouldn't, and that's probably why so many people get turned off by them.