The Market 2021

BigRedRage

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It's been the definition of volition the last few days. Musk though, I don't believe he is a pump and dump. I believe he really wants it to succeed. I would imagine a lot of rich people do. Then your assets can no longer all be visible and under government control. Plus, crypto far more aligns with his dreams and aspirations than Fiat does. I have read that there is a mysterious whal that owns the vast majority of dogecoin. I went against my thoughts of buy the rumor sell the news on this one. I intended to sell friday night and instead decided to ride out the wave and see what happens. Oops! I'm still up though and still holding as I do have faith it will keep climbing only because of the support it has to do so. Some things are born out of necessity, some things out of Irony. Doge is a very interesting case of Irony.

You are damn right I would sell before that rocket took off! I need to stop ignoring that philosophy. Excitement took me over.
 

dscher

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It's been the definition of volition the last few days. Musk though, I don't believe he is a pump and dump. I believe he really wants it to succeed. I would imagine a lot of rich people do. Then your assets can no longer all be visible and under government control. Plus, crypto far more aligns with his dreams and aspirations than Fiat does. I have read that there is a mysterious whal that owns the vast majority of dogecoin. I went against my thoughts of buy the rumor sell the news on this one. I intended to sell friday night and instead decided to ride out the wave and see what happens. Oops! I'm still up though and still holding as I do have faith it will keep climbing only because of the support it has to do so. Some things are born out of necessity, some things out of Irony. Doge is a very interesting case of Irony.

You are damn right I would sell before that rocket took off! I need to stop ignoring that philosophy. Excitement took me over.
Fomo gets the best of most investors and traders. Welcome aboard! :)

On the Elon front, I hear ya, but the conflict of interest is through the roof and you don't hear a freaking peek. He's one of the top 100 holders and he influences the price with a tweet. That's high level conflict right there. Still, I'm in the boat that suckers are born every minute..so it also is what it is. Investor and traders alike need to be aware of decisions that can wipe them out in days or weeks. That's always why a very small percentage of your portfolio should be allocated to these speculation trades. Imo.
 

BigRedRage

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Fomo gets the best of most investors and traders. Welcome aboard! :)

On the Elon front, I hear ya, but the conflict of interest is through the roof and you don't hear a freaking peek. He's one of the top 100 holders and he influences the price with a tweet. That's high level conflict right there. Still, I'm in the boat that suckers are born every minute..so it also is what it is. Investor and traders alike need to be aware of decisions that can wipe them out in days or weeks. That's always why a very small percentage of your portfolio should be allocated to these speculation trades. Imo.
I've never seen anything stating he was a top 100 holder. Where do you read that? The last I read was about how he did not own dogecoin however if Space X is using dogecoin to find a mission, they most definitely will be holding it in the future.

Musk and Cuban both seem to be the only ones pimping Dogecoin and I've never seen either of them as people who would pump and dump the public. The public is on their side with a lot of things, would be a horrible PR move
 

Devilmaycare

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my CCIV stocks still suck.

Mine too but I'm still looking at that as a long hold for lucid. We should see some sort of a bump when it closes in the next two months.

I'm still looking for SPAC punishment though. Bought some IPOF this morning. At $10.10 it can't really fall much more and could have big upside depending on who Chamath closes. Given some of his pervious SPACs and that it's his largest one, it could end up being someone good. So it seems like a decent risk to park a few grand.
 

dscher

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I've never seen anything stating he was a top 100 holder. Where do you read that? The last I read was about how he did not own dogecoin however if Space X is using dogecoin to find a mission, they most definitely will be holding it in the future.

Musk and Cuban both seem to be the only ones pimping Dogecoin and I've never seen either of them as people who would pump and dump the public. The public is on their side with a lot of things, would be a horrible PR move
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-elon-musk-february-warning-2021-5-1030404506

Looks like it could be speculation for now. But, my Spidey senses are tingling on this one. Just feels a little off...

Some forums seem to have the theory that he is wholly or partly of the 'whale' account being mentioned. But, obviously, it's something we will never know one way or the other imo...well, because it's Elon musk and the extreme skeptic in me thinks any sort of front running from a billionaire can easily be covered up nowadays.
 

BigRedRage

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https://markets.businessinsider.com...-elon-musk-february-warning-2021-5-1030404506

Looks like it could be speculation for now. But, my Spidey senses are tingling on this one. Just feels a little off...

Some forums seem to have the theory that he is wholly or partly of the 'whale' account being mentioned. But, obviously, it's something we will never know one way or the other imo...well, because it's Elon musk and the extreme skeptic in me thinks any sort of front running from a billionaire can easily be covered up nowadays.


I just don't see it from a personality perspective, while being as rich as needed to do all the things he wants and to excel at all of it to then decide to swindle and pump and dump the average joe to make more capital. JMO. He clearly has not been in the ventures for profits sake. he made it clear from the get go what his true missions are.
 

dscher

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I just don't see it from a personality perspective, while being as rich as needed to do all the things he wants and to excel at all of it to then decide to swindle and pump and dump the average joe to make more capital. JMO. He clearly has not been in the ventures for profits sake. he made it clear from the get go what his true missions are.
I agree. I don't know the guy.. so he could be a scumbag or excellent human being. :) My point was more to the fact that he simply is making a little bit suspicious to have such a concentrated pool of investors at the top and him pumping it when he knows very well that his tweets are causing a mass euphoria from the retail guys that will get left holding the bag when the big boys unload their shares/coins/ whatever. That's pyramid scheme level stuff imo..but, even as I'm typing this.. I still think it's on the individual investor that goes out and throws rent money on it and then blames Elon. That's a cop out for sure. So I guess...rabble rabble rabble from me. :)
 

BigRedRage

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I agree. I don't know the guy.. so he could be a scumbag or excellent human being. :) My point was more to the fact that he simply is making a little bit suspicious to have such a concentrated pool of investors at the top and him pumping it when he knows very well that his tweets are causing a mass euphoria from the retail guys that will get left holding the bag when the big boys unload their shares/coins/ whatever. That's pyramid scheme level stuff imo..but, even as I'm typing this.. I still think it's on the individual investor that goes out and throws rent money on it and then blames Elon. That's a cop out for sure. So I guess...rabble rabble rabble from me. :)
:throws his rent money into doge because dscher said something like it:

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puckhead

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I just don't see it from a personality perspective, while being as rich as needed to do all the things he wants and to excel at all of it to then decide to swindle and pump and dump the average joe to make more capital. JMO. He clearly has not been in the ventures for profits sake. he made it clear from the get go what his true missions are.

"Ah, yes, but I'd trade it all for a little more."

-Charles Montgomery Burns
 

Russ Smith

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Consumer Price Index sees biggest jump in 12 years. And it took about 5 seconds for the GOP to blame the risk of inflation on Biden.

Had nothing to do with all that cash the fed was pouring into the markets under Trump, or the almost complete decapitation of the interest rates to drive the markets up under Trump?

This is so predictable people have been saying it for 2 years, whoever wins POTUS in 2020 is going to have to deal with what Trump did. The good thing is it's not Trump because he would have kept doing the same thing setting up an enormous bubble.
 
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Folster

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Consumer Price Index sees biggest jump in 12 years. And it took about 5 seconds for the GOP to blame the risk of inflation on Biden.

Had nothing to do with all that cash the fed was pouring into the markets under Trump, or the almost complete decapitation of the interest rates to drive the markets up under Trump?

This is so predictable people have been saying it for 2 years, whoever wins POTUS in 2020 is going to have to deal with what Trump did. The good thing is it's not Trump because he would have kept doing the same thing setting up an enormous bubble.

This is a long time coming, really going back to fed policy since the financial crisis. Interest rates have been kept low while the economy was booming throughout Obama's 2nd term. And deficit spending has been the accepted fiscal policy for both parties for decades. Biden has been a part of this going back to his time as a Senator and deserves blame as does Trump.

That said, Biden's early agenda with the ARP, AJP, AFP, and student debt cancellation promises trillions in spending. While some may be needed for actual infrastructure, a lot of it further expands entitlement programs and the budget and nobody paying attention believes it will be paid for outside of printing money.

It seems Americans are going to get a lesson in economic theory and the current Modern Monetary Theory will be tested by reality. The last couple decades has made people think that free lunches existed. I think we are about to find out.

We'll see if this bout of inflation is indeed transitory. Runaway trains are hard to stop and a lot of inflation is fueled by consumer psychology and expectations.
 
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dscher

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This is a long time coming, really going back to fed policy since the financial crisis. Interest rates have been kept low while the economy was booming throughout Obama's 2nd term. And deficit spending has been the accepted fiscal policy for both parties for decades. Biden has been a part of this going back to his time as a Senator and deserves blame as does Trump.

That said, Biden's early agenda with the ARP, AJP, AFP, and student debt cancellation promises trillions in spending. While some may be needed for actual infrastructure, a lot of it further expands entitlement programs and the budget and nobody paying attention believes it will be paid for outside of printing money.

It seems Americans are going to get a lesson in economic theory and the current Modern Monetary Theory will be tested by reality. The last couple decades has made people think that free lunches existed. I think we are about to find out.

Well see if this bout of inflation is indeed transitory. Runaway trains are hard to stop and a lot of inflation is fueled by consumer psychology and expectations.
Yup. This isn't some presidential blame game imo. The fed just gives the government what it always wants... more easy money. Easy money will come with a massive price long term, in my view.
 

Russ Smith

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This is a long time coming, really going back to fed policy since the financial crisis. Interest rates have been kept low while the economy was booming throughout Obama's 2nd term. And deficit spending has been the accepted fiscal policy for both parties for decades. Biden has been a part of this going back to his time as a Senator and deserves blame as does Trump.

That said, Biden's early agenda with the ARP, AJP, AFP, and student debt cancellation promises trillions in spending. While some may be needed for actual infrastructure, a lot of it further expands entitlement programs and the budget and nobody paying attention believes it will be paid for outside of printing money.

It seems Americans are going to get a lesson in economic theory and the current Modern Monetary Theory will be tested by reality. The last couple decades has made people think that free lunches existed. I think we are about to find out.

We'll see if this bout of inflation is indeed transitory. Runaway trains are hard to stop and a lot of inflation is fueled by consumer psychology and expectations.


But he hasn't actually spent most of that money because the GOP is blocking all his agendas.

Biden is absolutely going to spend money and we're going to have inflation. 100% agreed, that was inevitable. There were 2 increases under Obama late in his term, there were 7 under Trump but again he kept complaining and bullied the fed into lowering rates, at one point they lowered the rates at I think 4 consecutive fed meetings while economists were openly saying we should be raising them or keeping them flat because Trump was removing the safety net. you don't lower rates when the economy is doing well you raise them or hold steady. But Trump wanted to win the election and he thought low rates would help. he's also a real estate guy so to him being able to borrow money cheaply is good business so he bullied the fed into lower rates. Then the economy started to slow and we HAD to lower the rates even more, and Trump immediately said see I told you so and then the fed had to start pumping money in to prop up the economy.

So now you have a situation where you're in a pandemic and you can't lower rates there's no safety net. Trump wanted NEGATIVE rates remember.

This has always been inevitable, the fed is going to have to do something with the rates and slow down the pumping money in and then we're going to see markets react and sell off due to inflation fears. This is entirely the result of Trumps' economic policies, Covid made it worse but you can't just have low interest rates and print money eventually it catches up as you said.

The cycle is the same everytime, GOP POTUS leaves office with the economy in trouble, Dem POTUS inherits it, GOP blames him. 4-8 years later the economy is "fixed" and the GOP takes over and takes credit for it, lather, rinse, repeat.

I don't think we're going to see a crash yet but this is a clear concern. Last week they were blasting him for the bad jobs report completely ignoring the prior jobs report which beat by almost as many jobs as last weeks missed by.

The interest stuff is precisely why Biden and the Dems wanted the stimulus and extra unemployment benefits to last through Sept, they wanted to help people get back on their feet and maybe get a cushion before this happened. Now all the GOP states are pulling the extra benefits and their own citizens are going to be forced into taking low paying jobs, and then the GOP will blame it on Biden.

things are not bad yet but they certainly could go bad if we have a few more negative things entered into the mix
 

dscher

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I don't think we're going to see a crash yet but this is a clear concern. Last week they were blasting him for the bad jobs report completely ignoring the prior jobs report which beat by almost as many jobs as last weeks missed by.
I personally believe the longer we delay the inevitable (popping of the bubble and/or bubbles) with easy money the worse it will continue to get for the little/retail guy because they always hold the bag at tops. So I say.. bring on the crash. After all, you don't have healthy bull markets without healthy bear markets. We just have to have a smidge of hope we don't sink into the lost decade like Japan did with their very similar fed easy money policy (zirp,nirp) they had in the 80s before their secular bear of 15 + years.
 

BigRedRage

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Arguing about presidential spending is a bit silly right now. We just went through a MAJOR economic crash with Covid after printing money non stop since 2010. This is a cycle and the cycle just got accelerated by a pandemic. The government and FED have a huge role in this but there is blame all over the place as all of the government seems to think that simply printing money will solve everything. This is expected.
 

BigRedRage

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Watch that 450 level my friend. If we hold there that could be the next little rally off that pivot. Lots of buyers in that area.
I'll be surprised if it goes there but I'm long tsla and 600 was lower than my previous stake so I'll take it. If it drops significantly in, I'll be fat from eating so much dip

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That sound you hear is me chowing down on that TSLA dip

You have bigger balls than me. TSLA is the poster boy of the market bubble and the disconnect between earnings and price. I don't see them doing well if rationality returns to fiscal and monetary policy.
 

BigRedRage

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You have bigger balls than me. TSLA is the poster boys of the market bubble and the disconnect between earnings and price. I don't see them doing well if rationality returns to fiscal and monetary policy.
I think the next 5 years are going to be explosive in the EV space and TSLA will grow exponentially on top of it's other products and I view them as a tech company who just happens to be the leader in EV. All faith. I'm already very much invested in tsla so buying dips only makes sense when the company is growing at the rate it is. By August, it is expected to see a 7500 ev credit on all American ev, the semi and cyber truck or in route, the model 2 is being planned with an even lower price and more. I'm pumped.

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dscher

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You have bigger balls than me. TSLA is the poster boy of the market bubble and the disconnect between earnings and price. I don't see them doing well if rationality returns to fiscal and monetary policy.
Not only that...but their market cap after being added to the S&P will be a huge drag on the overall market and index itself, if they do continue their slide. So anyone holding those nice steady ETFs or mutual funds of tracking the major index will have to account for a healthy dose of TSLA in their portfolios.
 
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Not only that...but their market cap after being added to the S&P will be a huge drag on the overall market and index itself, if they do continue their slide. So anyone holding those nice steady ETFs or mutual funds of tracking the major index will have to account for a healthy dose of TSLA in their portfolios.

I think index holders will be fine as Energy, Financials, and Materials continue to outpace the high flying growth. That's the beauty of indexing.
 

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