The Market 2021

[Folster]

We are starting to get a lot of fervor about the market and we can all see what bitcoin is doing. Call volumes are high and investors are eager to invest. Unsophisticated investors are starting to pile in again. I expect institutional investors to lock in some gains at some point in the near future.

This is no concern for the long term investor. But I wanted to share what I see on the front lines.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I really don't get the bitcoin surge. It's always seemed crazy to me. Do you guys buy into crypto at all? A girl I know has access to a pre-public coin and was trying to get me to buy some before it goes public in like a month or two. I've held off because something just doesn't feel right with it but I've been tempted to maybe throw like just $1000 into it just in case.

Everything just feels like a bit of a bubble right now. I own a bunch of TSLA that that I'm up big on right now. Finger is definitely hovering over that sell button with how crazy it's been.

 

[BigRedRage]

I really don't get the bitcoin surge. It's always seemed crazy to me. Do you guys buy into crypto at all? A girl I know has access to a pre-public coin and was trying to get me to buy some before it goes public in like a month or two. I've held off because something just doesn't feel right with it but I've been tempted to maybe throw like just $1000 into it just in case.

Everything just feels like a bit of a bubble right now. I own a bunch of TSLA that that I'm up big on right now. Finger is definitely hovering over that sell button with how crazy it's been.

ive sold TSLA a few times and made good money on it but man oh man if I just stayed in in the first place....I'm even making a killing on it now after buying back in after the stock split.

I do not fully understand bitcoin or believe in it so I have never messed with it. It seems like a pure gamble.

 

[BigRedRage]

We are starting to get a lot of fervor about the market and we can all see what bitcoin is doing. Call volumes are high and investors are eager to invest. Unsophisticated investors are starting to pile in again. I expect institutional investors to lock in some gains at some point in the near future.

This is no concern for the long term investor. But I wanted to share what I see on the front lines.

Locking in gains as in you expect them to drop out and lower stock values soon? I could see that coming. The stocks I am still in are mostly all long term investments so not much concern. I dont see people dumping out of things like AAL or BA any time soon. They just have not recovered yet.

 

[Folster]

Locking in gains as in you expect them to drop out and lower stock values soon? I could see that coming. The stocks I am still in are mostly all long term investments so not much concern. I dont see people dumping out of things like AAL or BA any time soon. They just have not recovered yet.

Yeah those are long term plays. The high flying growth stocks that crushed last year what I expect.

 

[BigRedRage]

Yeah those are long term plays. The high flying growth stocks that crushed last year what I expect.

Sounds good. I'm mostly out of tech stocks and etc so no worries on my end. I still have phillips, SHOP, BA, AAL and some other stuff but I dont think anyone is ready to pull out of those yet unless cutting losses.

 

[Devilmaycare]

ive sold TSLA a few times and made good money on it but man oh man if I just stayed in in the first place....I'm even making a killing on it now after buying back in after the stock split.

I do not fully understand bitcoin or believe in it so I have never messed with it. It seems like a pure gamble.

I bought into TSLA in July at the badgering of a coworker who drinks their koolaid. I'm up like 150% right now. Kicking myself for not buying even more with the way it's going. I totally view it as a bubble though and not long term. After last year's crash I bought a bunch of SQ too and I looking at it similarly. It's up like 170% since I bought it and it doesn't feel like it'll continue to trend that way either.

Like you I was looking to keep stuff like the AAL and DAL that I bought as the longer term plays. They still haven't really bounced back yet and I got them at the bargain prices.

AAPL is the one I'm mainly on the fence with on which way to go. I've held them forever being an iOS/Mac dev. It's hasn't bubbled as much as the other and pays a dividend. So I might stick with it unless I start feeling issues with the company itself.

 

[dscher]

Tsla and Btc are so parabolic that any new investor getting in now will have to be prepared for some nasty drawdowns imo

 

[BigRedRage]

I bought into TSLA in July at the badgering of a coworker who drinks their koolaid. I'm up like 150% right now. Kicking myself for not buying even more with the way it's going. I totally view it as a bubble though and not long term. After last year's crash I bought a bunch of SQ too and I looking at it similarly. It's up like 170% since I bought it and it doesn't feel like it'll continue to trend that way either.

Like you I was looking to keep stuff like the AAL and DAL that I bought as the longer term plays. They still haven't really bounced back yet and I got them at the bargain prices.

AAPL is the one I'm mainly on the fence with on which way to go. I've held them forever being an iOS/Mac dev. It's hasn't bubbled as much as the other and pays a dividend. So I might stick with it unless I start feeling issues with the company itself.

The argument I would make about TSLA, outside of the cult following, they are much more than an auto company and with the continued pace of auto along with solar, the HVAC systems they are working on and more, TSLA may just continue to grow and grow.

Maybe not though.

 

[BigRedRage]

Tsla and Btc are so parabolic that any new investor getting in now will have to be prepared for some nasty drawdowns imo

thats what I thought when I sold at 650 a share before the split.

 

[Folster]

I really don't get the bitcoin surge. It's always seemed crazy to me. Do you guys buy into crypto at all? A girl I know has access to a pre-public coin and was trying to get me to buy some before it goes public in like a month or two. I've held off because something just doesn't feel right with it but I've been tempted to maybe throw like just $1000 into it just in case.

Everything just feels like a bit of a bubble right now. I own a bunch of TSLA that that I'm up big on right now. Finger is definitely hovering over that sell button with how crazy it's been.

If you're concerned about losing your gains on TSLA. Enter a trailing stop loss order on it. It will follow the price up and the stop loss trigger will stay at the set $ amount or % that you choose. It may give you some peace of mind.

 

[dscher]

thats what I thought when I sold at 650 a share before the split.

No doubt. But many don't stay nimble enough to understand how fast these moves can become extremely elevated to the downside when that fomo runs out.

 

[dscher]

Now that we have a little market talk back into the board, I figured this would be a good article to highlight some of the possible concerns moving forward...

https://northmantrader.com/2021/01/07/clear-and-present-danger/

 

[BigRedRage]

If you're concerned about losing your gains on TSLA. Enter a trailing stop loss order on it. It will follow the price up and the stop loss trigger will stay at the set $ amount or % that you choose. It may give you some peace of mind.

never heard of this, thats pretty cool. I should probably learn about it. So I can set something like "if x stock drops by 8% trigger a sale"?

 

[Devilmaycare]

If you're concerned about losing your gains on TSLA. Enter a trailing stop loss order on it. It will follow the price up and the stop loss trigger will stay at the set $ amount or % that you choose. It may give you some peace of mind.

Already set up for it. I learned to do that last year during the crash. After buying in low during it I thought we were going to see another crash so I looked into it and started doing it on everything that I as concerned about. It's a nice safety net for some of these bubbles.

The argument I would make about TSLA, outside of the cult following, they are much more than an auto company and with the continued pace of auto along with solar, the HVAC systems they are working on and more, TSLA may just continue to grow and grow.

Maybe not though.

This is the main reason I've stayed holding. They're a tech company that makes cars. It seems like they have a bunch possible revenue plays outside of the cars. If other EV brands catches on they still need home chargers and the like. The quality on those are better then their car quality.

 

[Folster]

never heard of this, thats pretty cool. I should probably learn about it. So I can set something like "if x stock drops by 8% trigger a sale"?

Yes. A traditional stop loss would be XYZ is valued at $100. You put a stop loss at $90. It will stay at $90 even ad XYZ goes up in value. A trailing stop loss can be set at 10% and as XYZ increases the stop loss moves up with it. Just be careful with really volatile positions as some positions can have huge daily swings.

 

[BigRedRage]

Already set up for it. I learned to do that last year during the crash. After buying in low during it I thought we were going to see another crash so I looked into it and started doing it on everything that I as concerned about. It's a nice safety net for some of these bubbles.



This is the main reason I've stayed holding. They're a tech company that makes cars. It seems like they have a bunch possible revenue plays outside of the cars. If other EV brands catches on they still need home chargers and the like. The quality on those are better then their car quality.

That is another thought too. Tesla will have the charging infrastructure way before anyone else and likely other EV vehicles will be using tesla chargers and more. Then, as other EV picks up steam, more and more people should be looking into solar, powerwalls, home superchargers and the like.

 

[BigRedRage]

Yes. A traditional stop loss would be XYZ is valued at $100. You put a stop loss at $90. It will stay at $90 even ad XYZ goes up in value. A trailing stop loss can be set at 10% and as XYZ increases the stop loss moves up with it. Just be careful with really volatile positions as some positions can have huge daily swings.

This is awesome and maybe something I can dial in on stocks that are profitable and are not right where I want them yet but I would be happy to sell if I knew it was dipping while I was not looking.

 

[dscher]

Yes. A traditional stop loss would be XYZ is valued at $100. You put a stop loss at $90. It will stay at $90 even ad XYZ goes up in value. A trailing stop loss can be set at 10% and as XYZ increases the stop loss moves up with it. Just be careful with really volatile positions as some positions can have huge daily swings.

You can also see gaps below that price with the type of vol in TSLA and it won't trigger the order. So another thing to be aware of for anyone using any type of stops.

 

[Folster]

You can also see gaps below that price with the type of vol in TSLA and it won't trigger the order. So another thing to be aware of for anyone using any type of stops.

Well, once the price falls below the stop price it triggers a market order and should execute with no issue. Some people will do a trailing stop limit and I've seen people set the stop trigger and limit too close and the price blew past both without executing.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Yes. A traditional stop loss would be XYZ is valued at $100. You put a stop loss at $90. It will stay at $90 even ad XYZ goes up in value. A trailing stop loss can be set at 10% and as XYZ increases the stop loss moves up with it. Just be careful with really volatile positions as some positions can have huge daily swings.

Yeah, I had a problem with that not knowing better. At the start of lockdowns I bought Netflix thinking it would do well during it. At the time it was swinging about 5% in either direction a day and I had a stop at around 10%. It was down a few points on the day and just had one of the quick down blips and triggered it. Fortunately I was still up like $75/share and had been thinking of selling anyway.

 

[Folster]

TSLA passed FB in market cap today. They are only behind AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT in market cap. Insane!

 

[dscher]

TSLA passed FB in market cap today. They are only behind AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT in market cap. Insane!

Seems rational..

 

[Western Font]

So far media analysts don't seem to think Biden tax changes will happen before 2022, nor will western central banks raise rates before 2023, so those are two non-factors in widespread behavior this year. In that context stocks and real estate seem likely to gain this year or at least not crash, especially if the Democrats do a better job with the pandemic (and there there is no mutation that neutralizes vaccine effectiveness).

 

[Russ Smith]

I held a bunch of stocks that I sold in 2018 because my new fund manager at Fidelity convinced me I was taking too much risk both in my regular stocks and my IRA. I had a bunch of stocks like SQ, and some that are WAY up now. I was feeling a bit mad at her so last Friday I pulled out old emails on what I sold at, and did the math on what I would be overall now if I had just kept those stocks instead of letting her sell them all and manage my IRA. The reality is I would only be 5% ahead of her and I had far less risk and headaches so I'm actually not mad. Now I sold stocks in my own account that had I held now would be much higher, but I also had 3 stocks, including ICPT, that are WAY down that I sold because of what she said. I would have more money now but I also know I wouldn't have held them all this way up anyways.

SQ is really amazing they're not the only company that does what they do but they seem to be the one making a killing doing it. That's one I definitely should have held, and MTCH. I've mentioned SHOP before should have never sold that.

I'm kind of loading up money now debating what to buy. I've never really understood TSLA, it seems to trade more on man that's cool than on actual fundamentals but I sure wish I'd bought it 5 years ago.