Painless 2013 Cards Salary Cap Moves

[kerouac9]

I’ve been going back and forth with Darren Urban on Twitter regarding whether or not the Cards need to make cuts in advance of the new league year. I think Darren’s being a little feisty saying that the Cards don’t “need” to make cuts to get under the cap, but if I’m going to throw stones, I figured I’d run the thought experiment to see what the Cards could do to stay under the cap without having to gut their roster. I’ll be using data from both Sportrac.com and Overthecap.com.

Here are the facts right now: According to Darren Urban, the Cards are about $3.5M over the anticipated 2013 salary cap (http://blog.azcardinals.com/2013/02/15/keim-considers-inevitable-difficult-decisions/).

The Cards currently have 51 players under contract. By the time training camp opens, that number is going to be 90 players total, of which about 8 are going to be draft picks.

According to OvertheCap.com, the Cards’ anticipated Rookie Pool is $6,433,173. Let’s call that $6.4 million.

Free agency is going to open up holes for a starting ILB (currently Paris Lenon), 2 CB of quality you don’t mind seeing 12-16 games in a year (Greg Toler and Mike Adams), 2 depth safeties (Rashad Johnson and James Sanders), 2 depth defensive linemen (Nick Eason and Vonnie Holliday), a depth outside linebacker (Quentin Groves) and a depth running back (LaRod Stephens-Howling). That’s 9 players.

Let’s assume that one-third of those performance positions will be replaced by players already on the roster, and another third will be replaced by draft picks from the 2013 draft class. That means we’ll have to sign 3 mid-level free agents. Let’s (conservatively) put that total cost at $6M.

Because we’re doing a cost exercise, let’s say that those 3 mid-level free agents and 8 draft picks will be added to with 19 undrafted free agents or minimum-salary “camp bodies” which won’t qualify for the Rule of 52 for offseason cap accounting.

So the Cards need to find $3.5M before March 12, $6.5M between now and April, and $15.9M in 2013 cap dollars between now and June.

Let’s give Urban the benefit of the doubt and say that the Cards don’t release anyone, or extend contracts. They just convert salary to signing bonus. How do we get to that figure?

Kevin Kolb has the highest base salary in the group. The perhaps $8M of his current $9M salary could be converted to bonus money, reducing his 2013 cap number from $13.5M to $7.5M ($1M salary + [$2M signing bonus] + $2M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus + [$2M restructure bonus]). We’ll be married to Kevin Kolb for at least another year, maybe two, but it gets us under the cap for 2013, plus an extra $1M for free agency.

The next likely option is Stewart Bradley, who has the second-highest base salary on the team in 2013, at $5M. Without giving up any money, Bradley could restructure and convert $4M of his 2013 salary to bonus, reducing his 2013 cap number from $6.5M to $3.9M ($1M salary + $500K workout bonus + [$1M signing bonus] + [$1.4M restructure bonus]). That’s a $2.6M in 2013 cap savings, and commits us to using Stewart Bradley as the replacement to Paris Lenon.

Re-structuring Kolb and Bradley would save $8.6M on the 2013 cap, although create significant burdens for the 2014 season and beyond. You can probably get a little more 2013 relief by going to Levi Brown and Darnell Dockett, and that would “kick the can” down the road a little more.

My bottom line is that it’s possible to get under the salary cap without cutting anyone, but that it’s probably better to get out of some of these contracts and demand that some players accept reduced salaries. The problem is that we’ve given out so many bonuses the last few years that there aren’t a lot of high-salaried players that we can reduce.

The bottomer line is that you shouldn't expect to make a "splash" in free agency, or maybe even a ripple. Cutting Kolb, Bradley, Daryn Colledge, Jeff King, Early Doucet, and Beanie Wells only saves some $16 million under the cap, more than a third of which is going to go to rookie contracts.

 

[Sam Wise]

Are you saying none of the "Hole" players will be resigned? I think some get brought back. Why would we pay Bradley a 4mil bonus when he is a waste of a roster spot? What could we get by cutting hime

 

[kerouac9]

Are you saying none of the "Hole" players will be resigned? I think some get brought back. Why would we pay Bradley a 4mil bonus when he is a waste of a roster spot? What could we get by cutting hime

Sorry. This conversation was in response to this tweet: https://twitter.com/cardschatter/statuses/303998448137543680

 

[kerouac9]

As for your question about whether LSH, Toler, Johnson, etc., come back, it'll depend on what they can get on the open market. In this scenario, where no one gets cut, there's probably not enough money to get more than 2 or 3 of them back.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Are you saying none of the "Hole" players will be resigned? I think some get brought back. Why would we pay Bradley a 4mil bonus when he is a waste of a roster spot? What could we get by cutting hime

He's not suggesting what "should' be done, but what "could".

 

[cardpa]

I’ve been going back and forth with Darren Urban on Twitter regarding whether or not the Cards need to make cuts in advance of the new league year. I think Darren’s being a little feisty saying that the Cards don’t “need” to make cuts to get under the cap, but if I’m going to throw stones, I figured I’d run the thought experiment to see what the Cards could do to stay under the cap without having to gut their roster. I’ll be using data from both Sportrac.com and Overthecap.com.

Here are the facts right now: According to Darren Urban, the Cards are about $3.5M over the anticipated 2013 salary cap (http://blog.azcardinals.com/2013/02/15/keim-considers-inevitable-difficult-decisions/).

The Cards currently have 51 players under contract. By the time training camp opens, that number is going to be 90 players total, of which about 8 are going to be draft picks.

According to OvertheCap.com, the Cards’ anticipated Rookie Pool is $6,433,173. Let’s call that $6.4 million.

Free agency is going to open up holes for a starting ILB (currently Paris Lenon), 2 CB of quality you don’t mind seeing 12-16 games in a year (Greg Toler and Mike Adams), 2 depth safeties (Rashad Johnson and James Sanders), 2 depth defensive linemen (Nick Eason and Vonnie Holliday), a depth outside linebacker (Quentin Groves) and a depth running back (LaRod Stephens-Howling). That’s 9 players.

Let’s assume that one-third of those performance positions will be replaced by players already on the roster, and another third will be replaced by draft picks from the 2013 draft class. That means we’ll have to sign 3 mid-level free agents. Let’s (conservatively) put that total cost at $6M.

Because we’re doing a cost exercise, let’s say that those 3 mid-level free agents and 8 draft picks will be added to with 19 undrafted free agents or minimum-salary “camp bodies” which won’t qualify for the Rule of 52 for offseason cap accounting.

So the Cards need to find $3.5M before March 12, $6.5M between now and April, and $15.9M in 2013 cap dollars between now and June.

Let’s give Urban the benefit of the doubt and say that the Cards don’t release anyone, or extend contracts. They just convert salary to signing bonus. How do we get to that figure?

Kevin Kolb has the highest base salary in the group. The perhaps $8M of his current $9M salary could be converted to bonus money, reducing his 2013 cap number from $13.5M to $7.5M ($1M salary + [$2M signing bonus] + $2M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus + [$2M restructure bonus]). We’ll be married to Kevin Kolb for at least another year, maybe two, but it gets us under the cap for 2013, plus an extra $1M for free agency.

The next likely option is Stewart Bradley, who has the second-highest base salary on the team in 2013, at $5M. Without giving up any money, Bradley could restructure and convert $4M of his 2013 salary to bonus, reducing his 2013 cap number from $6.5M to $3.9M ($1M salary + $500K workout bonus + [$1M signing bonus] + [$1.4M restructure bonus]). That’s a $2.6M in 2013 cap savings, and commits us to using Stewart Bradley as the replacement to Paris Lenon.

Re-structuring Kolb and Bradley would save $8.6M on the 2013 cap, although create significant burdens for the 2014 season and beyond. You can probably get a little more 2013 relief by going to Levi Brown and Darnell Dockett, and that would “kick the can” down the road a little more.

My bottom line is that it’s possible to get under the salary cap without cutting anyone, but that it’s probably better to get out of some of these contracts and demand that some players accept reduced salaries. The problem is that we’ve given out so many bonuses the last few years that there aren’t a lot of high-salaried players that we can reduce.

The bottomer line is that you shouldn't expect to make a "splash" in free agency, or maybe even a ripple. Cutting Kolb, Bradley, Daryn Colledge, Jeff King, Early Doucet, and Beanie Wells only saves some $16 million under the cap, more than a third of which is going to go to rookie contracts.

So in essence what you are saying is by converting salaries to bonus money it does not count against the cap. The player still gets the money and a smaller salary or does the bonus money get spread out over several years which reduces the cap amount. Just trying to understand this.

 

[kerouac9]

So in essence what you are saying is by converting salaries to bonus money it does not count against the cap. The player still gets the money and a smaller salary or does the bonus money get spread out over several years which reduces the cap amount. Just trying to understand this.

"Restructure" means that the player gets the same amount of money this year, but spreads the salary cap cost over the remainder of the contract. The values in brackets [] are the cap values for that year. So Kolb's $2M restructure bonus is actually $8M, but it gets spread out over the remaining 4 years of the contract.

This thought experiment (and that's all it is--Stewart Bradley is TOTALLY getting cut) just looks at whether the Cards can or need to cut players to get under the cap or move forward financially.

 

[Mulli]

Poor Urban. He is such a victim.

 

[cardpa]

"Restructure" means that the player gets the same amount of money this year, but spreads the salary cap cost over the remainder of the contract. The values in brackets [] are the cap values for that year. So Kolb's $2M restructure bonus is actually $8M, but it gets spread out over the remaining 4 years of the contract.

This thought experiment (and that's all it is--Stewart Bradley is TOTALLY getting cut) just looks at whether the Cards can or need to cut players to get under the cap or move forward financially.

So then my question is say the team cuts Kolb next year does it accelerate the cap hit for the signing bonus which would cause it to count all of the bonus in that year? So if they owed Kolb $6m next year in bonus and they cut him to they take a hit for the entire $6M in that year they cut him? Wouldn't that just delay the inevitable which would still be cap problems and just push it farther down the road? To me it just delays what they must eventually face unless there are sizable increases in the cap so they could absorb it.

 

[kerouac9]

So then my question is say the team cuts Kolb next year does it accelerate the cap hit for the signing bonus which would cause it to count all of the bonus in that year? So if they owed Kolb $6m next year in bonus and they cut him to they take a hit for the entire $6M in that year they cut him? Wouldn't that just delay the inevitable which would still be cap problems and just push it farther down the road? To me it just delays what they must eventually face unless there are sizable increases in the cap so they could absorb it.

That's an excellent question. If the Cards under Kolb's current contract cut him right now, they'd have to account for $6M in dead money in 2013, and zero after that.

Under the scenario that I lay out above, if the Cards cut Kolb in 2014, they'd have $10M in dead money that year ($4M in accelerated signing bonus + $6M in accelerated restructure bonus).

 

[cardpa]

That's an excellent question. If the Cards under Kolb's current contract cut him right now, they'd have to account for $6M in dead money in 2013, and zero after that.

Under the scenario that I lay out above, if the Cards cut Kolb in 2014, they'd have $10M in dead money that year ($4M in accelerated signing bonus + $6M in accelerated restructure bonus).

That would put them in a bigger bind than now. It would behoove me if I were the GM to either cut bait with Kolb now or plan on keeping him for awhile. If Kolb would end up getting hurt again this year and prove once and for all he is as brittle as they come and they restructured the contract to bonus money then all the team is doing is putting themselves in real cap hell. Kind of like sticking a piece of gum in the hole in the dike and hoping it will hold up only to have it blow out and the leak gets worse.

I would hope that Keim is smarter than that.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Poor Urban. He is such a victim.

Urban doesn't do himself any favors.

 

[kerouac9]

That would put them in a bigger bind than now. It would behoove me if I were the GM to either cut bait with Kolb now or plan on keeping him for awhile. If Kolb would end up getting hurt again this year and prove once and for all he is as brittle as they come and they restructured the contract to bonus money then all the team is doing is putting themselves in real cap hell. Kind of like sticking a piece of gum in the hole in the dike and hoping it will hold up only to have it blow out and the leak gets worse.

I would hope that Keim is smarter than that.

Well, I think that's why the conversation is about trying to get Kolb to accept a reduced salary or cutting him, and there's little talk of actually getting him to re-structure the contract.

My belief is that Michael Bidwill is the guy who is going to take over the cap and salary economics, since the other two promoted guys are "football guys." The problem is that Keim and Bidwill were originally the promoters of Kolb. I think that a new regime would've cut ties with him altogether by now (I don't believe that Arians has or will assert much personnel control or authority).

It's not uncommon for teams to push their cap to the limits in pursuit of a title and then crash for a year to account for it--it's what the Ravens are doing now, and the Jets, and the Saints, and to an extent the Steelers are going through right now.

The problem is that the Cards extended themselves not to win a ring, but to maintain their decision-makers' employment into 2014, and now the fans have to pay the price.

 

[Lagerfilled]

Let's not forget that the Cards brought in at least one "capologist" recently:

http://blog.azcardinals.com/2013/02/06/adding-to-the-front-office/

Therefore it's not squarely on Keim and Licht or even Mikey to handle the $$$.

 

[GatorAZ]

Starting to think we cut bait with Kolb and draft a QB at #38. Maybe bring in Stanton on the cheap... Bradley and Doucet are goners but we need to eat Colledge's contract cause it clears us in 2014 (along with Kolb). Fitz and Cambell blow up for almost 30m so salary needs to be cleared after next season. Might as well do it now.

 

[kerouac9]

Starting to think we cut bait with Kolb and draft a QB at #38. Maybe bring in Stanton on the cheap... Bradley and Doucet are goners but we need to eat Colledge's contract cause it clears us in 2014 (along with Kolb). Fitz and Cambell blow up for almost 30m so salary needs to be cleared after next season. Might as well do it now.

It's going to be a hard sell for a fan base who's just watched their team go 18-30 the last three years that we're bottoming out. Come watch Drew Stanton and our terrible running backs!

It'll change after free agency and the draft, but the Cards have 31 players under contract going into 2014. The Cards need to get bigger and better contributions from their draft classes; dipping into free agency over and over to staunch wounds is not going to be possible under the new CBA.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

It's going to be a hard sell for a fan base who's just watched their team go 18-30 the last three years that we're bottoming out.

A harder sell than come watch the Kolb show again? At this point, I think we all know how that ends, and many would prefer a new QB/draft pick, even if the new QB is Stanton.

I'd prefer to go the Alex Smith/rookie route, but that may not be an option. There just doesn't seem to be any easy fixes, and our cap situation is a mess.

Bottoming out may be inevitable, especially considering we play in the same division as the Niners/Hawks.

 

[kerouac9]

A harder sell than come watch the Kolb show again? At this point, I think we all know how that ends, and many would prefer a new QB/draft pick, even if the new QB is Stanton.

I'd prefer to go the Alex Smith/rookie route, but that may not be an option. There just doesn't seem to be any easy fixes, and our cap situation is a mess.

Bottoming out may be inevitable, especially considering we play in the same division as the Niners/Hawks.

I dunno. I mean, Kolb can be fun to watch. He was in the Eagles game definitely, and he even was in the Dolphins game. At least there are highlights of Kolb that you could splice together in a promotions package.

There's nothing there with Drew Stanton. He's 28 years old and hasn't started a game since 2010, when he was helping to lead the Detroit Lions to a 6-10 record. Here's what FootballOutsiders had to say about him this year:

OK, so maybe Stanton wasn't worth the second-round pick that Detroit spend on him back in 2007. He's never had the strongest arm, and he has trouble when crowded in the pocket. Stanton also has a tendency to dance around at the top of his drop, which is a symptom of inexperience. But when you're 28, inexperience is a symptom of your coaches thinking you can't really play.

If we cut Kolb this year, it's a cap savings of $7.5M. If we cut him next year, we save $8.5M against the cap. He's going to be replaced by a rookie this year or next year anyway, right?

Does Kolb make the difference between a 6-10 season and a 2-14 season in 2013? Mmm... I don't know. I think that he might.

The question is whether your fan base can stay with you through a 6-10 season where you're involved in a handful of nail-biters, or whether they'll endure an almost completely non-competitive 2-14 season.

 

[JeffGollin]

Maybe this is overly simplistic, but why not cut Gay to bring us to net-zero regarding the cap and then "pay as we go" if we want to add or re-sign a FA? (i.e. add a dude; cut a dude)?

There is a bit of chasing our tail in this approach. For example, if we cut Gay, we'll want to re-sign Toler. If we want to re-sign Toler, we'll have to cut someone else. There comes a point where (if we can't renegotiate our way out of this mess) we'll have to find someone to cut that won't create a roster-hole.

 

[Chopper0080]

It's going to be a hard sell for a fan base who's just watched their team go 18-30 the last three years that we're bottoming out. Come watch Drew Stanton and our terrible running backs!

It'll change after free agency and the draft, but the Cards have 31 players under contract going into 2014. The Cards need to get bigger and better contributions from their draft classes; dipping into free agency over and over to staunch wounds is not going to be possible under the new CBA.

This. Facing facts the Cardinals need to start drafting starting caliber players at some of the non-key positions. Drafting #3 WRs, #2 TEs, 3rd down RBs and SILBs may not be sexy in the middle/late rounds but we spent 12.5 million in 2012 on Early Doucet (1.75), Jeff King (2.3), LSH (1.9), Paris Lenon (2.6), and Stewart Bradley (4). I think most everyone would agree that we would be better off and could get equal production from cheap rookies than what we got from the majority of these veterans. This is another great example of the Cardinals wasting resources that should be used on other areas.

 

[kerouac9]

Putting a 2nd round tender on LaRod Stephens-Howling was complete insanity.

 

[redheat]

Looks like we just cant cut Kolb but why not a VIck like re-sign for 1 year. The guy has made his money and might agree to a more incentive based deal for 1 year then sign here or elsewhere long term. Or fold and live happy with the money he's made.

 

[Cards Czar]

Here are players that either did not live up to their contracts or are replaceable.

Kolb should be cut - Savings of 7.5M
Adrian Wilson - Cut savings 3M.
Stewart Bradley - Cut savings 3.5M
Mike Gibson - Cut savings 715K
Kory Sperry - Cut savings 715K
Jim Dray - Cut savings 630K
William Gay - Cut savings 3.35M
Earley Doucet - Cut savings 2M
Beanie Wells - Cut savings 1.457M
Jeff King - Cut savings 1.55M
Daryn Colledge - Cut savings 450K
Total possible Cap Savings: 23.93M

Resign Toler, Johnson & Groves – 6-7 M

Rookie Pool: 6.4M

Total Remaining to sign FA: 10.5M

 

[kerouac9]

Looks like we just cant cut Kolb but why not a VIck like re-sign for 1 year. The guy has made his money and might agree to a more incentive based deal for 1 year then sign here or elsewhere long term. Or fold and live happy with the money he's made.

Vick actually got more money to stay in Philly than he would've been guaranteed had he hit the open market. Vick also had less bargaining leverage because Foles is breathing down his neck and a legitimate replacement starter.

Kolb didn't make $40 million or more over the last three years because he's eager to take less to prove himself to the NFL. C'mon, mang.

Kolb's compensation schedule the last three years is crazy:
2010: At least $10.7M on a one-year contract extension.
2011: $10M signing bonus, $2M salary on new contract with Cards
2012: $7M roster bonus, $1M salary, $500K workout bonus in 2nd year of contract.

That's $31.2M in three years, $27M of which came in gigantic checks, not salary.

Crazy.

 

[kerouac9]

Here are players that either did not live up to their contracts or are replaceable.

Kolb should be cut - Savings of 7.5M
Adrian Wilson - Cut savings 3M.
Stewart Bradley - Cut savings 3.5M
Mike Gibson - Cut savings 715K
Kory Sperry - Cut savings 715K
Jim Dray - Cut savings 630K
William Gay - Cut savings 3.35M
Earley Doucet - Cut savings 2M
Beanie Wells - Cut savings 1.457M
Jeff King - Cut savings 1.55M
Daryn Colledge - Cut savings 450K
Total possible Cap Savings: 23.93M

Resign Toler, Johnson & Groves – 6-7 M

Rookie Pool: 6.4M

Total Remaining to sign FA: 10.5M

Sperry and Gibson are (likely) earning the veteran minimum, and they'll be pushed off the cap if they last into camp. You're not getting actual "savings" with them.

If you think that you're going to get a:
1. Starting Quarterback
2. Starting Safety
3. Starting Cornerback
4. Starting Running back
5. Starting guard

in free agency or the draft at $10.5M, you have another thing coming to you.

I'm surprised that people think that Adrian Wilson is so easily replaceable with a rookie or a free agent. Dude was a Pro Bowler in 2012. He's a team captain.