K9's NFL QB Rankings

[Mulli]

This discussion is depressing somehow. I take my leave and apologize for my participation.

 

[Russ Smith]

Really? I guess if you totally ignore the stats you could make the argument. For four years now Smith has been an average to above average QB. He was so putrid in his rookie year that people have worn blinders and ignored what he has done since then. The guy isnt elite but he has not been "one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL" in a loooooooong time. So unless you're claiming that he has had an elite offensive line since his 2nd season then this does not hold water.

I have the blinders? So in year 3 when he put up a 57.2 rating that was good? didn't play year 4. Year 5 a Kolb like 81.5 rating 18 TD's 12 picks, year 6 82 rating 14 TD 10 picks. It was year 7, last year, where he had a good year finally.

They've had a good defense for several years now. Frank Gore has 5 seaons over 1000 yards during the time Alex has been in SF.

He's a terrible QB on a great team, that is why the local media is talking about how long can he hold off Kaepernick.

 

[kerouac9]

I have the blinders? So in year 3 when he put up a 57.2 rating that was good? didn't play year 4. Year 5 a Kolb like 81.5 rating 18 TD's 12 picks, year 6 82 rating 14 TD 10 picks. It was year 7, last year, where he had a good year finally.

They've had a good defense for several years now. Frank Gore has 5 seaons over 1000 yards during the time Alex has been in SF.

He's a terrible QB on a great team, that is why the local media is talking about how long can he hold off Kaepernick.

I like how an 81.5 QB rating, 18 TDs, 12 picks qualifies as being a "terrible" QB. And an 82 rating with 14 TDs and 10 INTS also does. If that's his baseline, he's an average quarterback.

"Terrible." LOL. It's never the case in a market where the backup quarterback is the most popular guy on the team.

 

[Russ Smith]

I like how an 81.5 QB rating, 18 TDs, 12 picks qualifies as being a "terrible" QB. And an 82 rating with 14 TDs and 10 INTS also does. If that's his baseline, he's an average quarterback.

"Terrible." LOL. It's never the case in a market where the backup quarterback is the most popular guy on the team.

So why was the average QB 19th in passer rating that year? Why was he 21st the next year? I'm not going to bother and look at all the names above to see if there's any who didn't play a whole season so there's probably 1 or 2.

It's not good QB play its certainly not any better than what Kolb has done when he's been able to stay healthy. If someone wants to argue health, I already conceded Smith's edge now is he is healthy, Kolb isn't and can't seem to stay healthy.

But he had one year where he was even above average and that was last year, most of the time he's been well below average.

now he's on a team that's been on paper the best team in the league for 2 years and he's still not good enough.

That's why the 49er media is all talking about can we win it all with Smith at QB the last few weeks.

 

[Phrazbit]

I have the blinders? So in year 3 when he put up a 57.2 rating that was good? didn't play year 4. Year 5 a Kolb like 81.5 rating 18 TD's 12 picks, year 6 82 rating 14 TD 10 picks. It was year 7, last year, where he had a good year finally.

They've had a good defense for several years now. Frank Gore has 5 seaons over 1000 yards during the time Alex has been in SF.

He's a terrible QB on a great team, that is why the local media is talking about how long can he hold off Kaepernick.

He played less than half the year with a jacked up shoulder in year 3. He has had far more average to above average seasons than he has had awful ones. The idea that he has been trash for most of his career does not hold water.

 

[Russ Smith]

He played less than half the year with a jacked up shoulder in year 3. He has had far more average to above average seasons than he has had awful ones. The idea that he has been trash for most of his career does not hold water.

I didn't say he was trash I said he was a terrible QB on a great team. I don't use words like trash and garbage to describe players the way you do.

Far more huh? So one year above average out of 6 equals far more to you that's an interesting way of looking at it. He's had one year with a passer rating higher than 19th.

05 didn't make the top 34 listed (40.8 rating). 06 22nd, 07 not in top 33(57.2), 08 didn't play, 09 19th, 10 21st, 11 9th. Hey that looks remarkably like what I said before that he has had one above average season in his career.

he's improved that's obvious, but the main thing he's gotten better at is not losing games by himself.

Now if you want to come up with some metric that incorporates salary into it so a TD pass for Alex is worth more than a TD pass for a guy who makes twice as much then go for it, I think then you might get him into the top half of the NFL QB stats.

You sure dropped the whole Bronco OL thing quickly I guess you couldn't figure out a way to get around the actual sack stats and explain why Orton wasn't getting killed behind the OL you said wasn't good.

 

[kerouac9]

So why was the average QB 19th in passer rating that year? Why was he 21st the next year? I'm not going to bother and look at all the names above to see if there's any who didn't play a whole season so there's probably 1 or 2.

It's not good QB play its certainly not any better than what Kolb has done when he's been able to stay healthy. If someone wants to argue health, I already conceded Smith's edge now is he is healthy, Kolb isn't and can't seem to stay healthy.

But he had one year where he was even above average and that was last year, most of the time he's been well below average.

now he's on a team that's been on paper the best team in the league for 2 years and he's still not good enough.

That's why the 49er media is all talking about can we win it all with Smith at QB the last few weeks.

LOL. "He's still not good enough." 5-2 right now, 14-2 last year, including a close loss in the NFC Championship game where he threw 2 TDs and 0 INTs.

Clearly you're totally rational on the topic of Alex Smith.

 

[Russ Smith]

LOL. "He's still not good enough." 5-2 right now, 14-2 last year, including a close loss in the NFC Championship game where he threw 2 TDs and 0 INTs.

Clearly you're totally rational on the topic of Alex Smith.

They had the best turnover ratio in the NFL last season. 2nd best in points allowed, 4th in point differential and they went 13-3 in the regular season and then lost to a 9-7 team that they beat during the regular season. Smith was 12-26 in the loss and left big plays on the field the whole game as mentioned by the NFL films folks who reviewed the game.

They lost at home to a team that had 7 losses. now yes the Giants won the SB so maybe they were the hot team but the 49ers had the best team on paper last year but failed to win because the Giants had a much better QB.

Must have been the Giants pass rush, wait they only had 3 sacks SF had 6?
Must have been the run game, what SF had 150 yards rushing to the Giants 85? SF lost the game because Alex Smith wasn't good enough to win it.

They've got a very good team, if they had a good QB they'd probably be unbeaten right now.

 

[kerouac9]

They had the best turnover ratio in the NFL last season. 2nd best in points allowed, 4th in point differential and they went 13-3 in the regular season and then lost to a 9-7 team that they beat during the regular season. Smith was 12-26 in the loss and left big plays on the field the whole game as mentioned by the NFL films folks who reviewed the game.

They lost at home to a team that had 7 losses. now yes the Giants won the SB so maybe they were the hot team but the 49ers had the best team on paper last year but failed to win because the Giants had a much better QB.

Must have been the Giants pass rush, wait they only had 3 sacks SF had 6?
Must have been the run game, what SF had 150 yards rushing to the Giants 85? SF lost the game because Alex Smith wasn't good enough to win it.

They've got a very good team, if they had a good QB they'd probably be unbeaten right now.

Yes. Clearly. They lost by 3 points in a game where the special teams turned the ball over twice, once in overtime. Clearly yet another horrible effort by Alex Smith.

Especially when they completely dominated the Giants by 7 points two months before.

And I like how you point to that Cossell piece like it's gospel when Cossell wrote that the only reason the 49ers won the week before against the Saints was because Alex Smith made big plays.

Completely rational response.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yes. Clearly. They lost by 3 points in a game where the special teams turned the ball over twice, once in overtime. Clearly yet another horrible effort by Alex Smith.

Especially when they completely dominated the Giants by 7 points two months before.

And I like how you point to that Cossell piece like it's gospel when Cossell wrote that the only reason the 49ers won the week before against the Saints was because Alex Smith made big plays.

Completely rational response.

It is completely rational because he reviewed the film in an impartial manner. One week Smith played well and he raved about it, the next week Smith played poorly and he called him on it.

And yes Kyle Williams mistakes hurt them but the difference in the game was the Qb play.

A rational person would suggest completing ONE pass to a WR was bad. That converting ONE third down was bad, and that was on the last play of regulation with 4 seconds left when the ball was snapped. 1-13 on 3rd down.
Tough to win when your QB can't convert on 3rd down, Manning could, Smith couldn't.

he did have a 73 yard TD pass to Vernon Davis who was almost 5 yards behind the great Antrell Rolle. Too bad that was like 40% of his passing yardage.

 

[kerouac9]

It is completely rational because he reviewed the film in an impartial manner. One week Smith played well and he raved about it, the next week Smith played poorly and he called him on it.

And yes Kyle Williams mistakes hurt them but the difference in the game was the Qb play.

A rational person would suggest completing ONE pass to a WR was bad. That converting ONE third down was bad, and that was on the last play of regulation with 4 seconds left when the ball was snapped. 1-13 on 3rd down.
Tough to win when your QB can't convert on 3rd down, Manning could, Smith couldn't.

he did have a 73 yard TD pass to Vernon Davis who was almost 5 yards behind the great Antrell Rolle. Too bad that was like 40% of his passing yardage.

It's not rational to say that Alex Smith is "terrible" because he didn't have an outstanding game against the eventual Super Bowl Champions, especially after his punt returner coughed up the ball in transition in overtime, sealing the loss.

It's not rational to say that Alex Smith is "terrible" because he got outplayed by one of the three best quarterbacks in the league right now; a guy who passed for 4600 yards and 29 TDs that year.

Alex Smith ranks, for me, 10th out of 22 veteran starters right now. Football Outsiders ranks him 12th. In 2011, FO ranked him 13th. In 2010, he was 33rd--right behind--wait for it--Kevin Kolb (with the benefit of Philly's offensive line and running game--BTW, which was much worse when Kolb was playing than when Vick came in).

It's not rational to examine a player only against the absolute best competition and decide that he's terrible. When a player doesn't excel against top competition, it only means that he's not an elite player. But, you know, if you want to evaluate Alex Smith against only the best competition, and when he comes up short label him as terrible, that's your perogative.

I'm going to look at his entire recent body of work, understand that he went from a D- situation to an A+ situation, and decide that, on balance, he's probably a C+ quarterback.

Perish the thought.

 

[Russ Smith]

It's not rational to say that Alex Smith is "terrible" because he didn't have an outstanding game against the eventual Super Bowl Champions, especially after his punt returner coughed up the ball in transition in overtime, sealing the loss.

It's not rational to say that Alex Smith is "terrible" because he got outplayed by one of the three best quarterbacks in the league right now; a guy who passed for 4600 yards and 29 TDs that year.

Alex Smith ranks, for me, 10th out of 22 veteran starters right now. Football Outsiders ranks him 12th. In 2011, FO ranked him 13th. In 2010, he was 33rd--right behind--wait for it--Kevin Kolb (with the benefit of Philly's offensive line and running game--BTW, which was much worse when Kolb was playing than when Vick came in).

It's not rational to examine a player only against the absolute best competition and decide that he's terrible. When a player doesn't excel against top competition, it only means that he's not an elite player. But, you know, if you want to evaluate Alex Smith against only the best competition, and when he comes up short label him as terrible, that's your perogative.

I'm going to look at his entire recent body of work, understand that he went from a D- situation to an A+ situation, and decide that, on balance, he's probably a C+ quarterback.

Perish the thought.

Sure it is when you have seen just about every game the guy has ever played in the NFL and you've seen him maybe twice rise up and do something when he had to.

Smith had 6 game winning drives last season,and 6 for the rest of his career. Last season was the unusual one not the rest of his career. and remember the rest of his career they were usually behind.

You want to keep acting like last year was the norm for him when it clearly wasn't.

 

[kerouac9]

You want to keep acting like last year was the norm for him when it clearly wasn't.

You keep saying that I'm saying this. I haven't said this anywhere. You're arguing with a straw man; no wonder you feel like you're winning.

 

[CardLogic]

Alex Smith is a terrible QB. He reminds me of Trent Dilfer on the 2005 Ravens. He is a "Go in there and don't screw it up for us" QB.

With Alex Smith QB'ing the Cardinals this season and all other things equal, the Cards would likely be sitting at 2-4 and I'm being generous. He flat out sucks...

That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it!

 

[Russ Smith]

You keep saying that I'm saying this. I haven't said this anywhere. You're arguing with a straw man; no wonder you feel like you're winning.

It's actually the first time I said it but don't let that stop you.

 

[kerouac9]

It's actually the first time I said it but don't let that stop you.

Well, whatever, Russ. You can't argue that Alex Smith isn't the 10th-best veteran QB in a vacuum. Whom would you move him below? Everyone including Kevin Kolb? A QB who is 18-5 the last two seasons is one of the five worst quarterbacks in the NFL?

Would you move him onto a level with Matt Hasselback (an actual backup quarterback) and Carson Palmer (a guy that his franchise immediately regretted acquiring as soon as the ink was dry)? Just above Mark Sanchez?

I've asked you this question multiple times: This isn't a rating, it's a ranking. You think that Alex Smith and his current 93.9 QB rating is ranked too high among the veteran quarterbacks in the NFL. Where would you put him, then? How would you rank the 35 quarterbacks who've gotten meaningful playing time as starters this season? Bestow your wisdom of having seen some or all of Alex Smiths 70-odd starts on us.

 

[Russ Smith]

Well, whatever, Russ. You can't argue that Alex Smith isn't the 10th-best veteran QB in a vacuum. Whom would you move him below? Everyone including Kevin Kolb? A QB who is 18-5 the last two seasons is one of the five worst quarterbacks in the NFL?

Would you move him onto a level with Matt Hasselback (an actual backup quarterback) and Carson Palmer (a guy that his franchise immediately regretted acquiring as soon as the ink was dry)? Just above Mark Sanchez?

I've asked you this question multiple times: This isn't a rating, it's a ranking. You think that Alex Smith and his current 93.9 QB rating is ranked too high among the veteran quarterbacks in the NFL. Where would you put him, then? How would you rank the 35 quarterbacks who've gotten meaningful playing time as starters this season? Bestow your wisdom of having seen some or all of Alex Smiths 70-odd starts on us.

I never challenged your ranking I asked when he was going to finally fulfill the upside you said he had which made you prefer him over some others.

I pointed out he'd basically had one really good year, that his own coach clearly doesn't trust him, and that he's been awful the last 2 games.

Again if he's so good why wouldn't Harbaugh let him throw on 3rd down in the redzone with a chance to put the game away? Because the last time he did he threw a pick and Harbaugh is a smart guy and doesn't want to get burned twice.

 

[kerouac9]

I never challenged your ranking I asked when he was going to finally fulfill the upside you said he had which made you prefer him over some others.

I pointed out he'd basically had one really good year, that his own coach clearly doesn't trust him, and that he's been awful the last 2 games.

Again if he's so good why wouldn't Harbaugh let him throw on 3rd down in the redzone with a chance to put the game away? Because the last time he did he threw a pick and Harbaugh is a smart guy and doesn't want to get burned twice.

So you don't have a problem with the actual gist of my argument, and you don't have a response--you're just trolling. Good to know.

 

[Russ Smith]

So you don't have a problem with the actual gist of my argument, and you don't have a response--you're just trolling. Good to know.

No I asked a specific question and the answer I got morphed into this debate.

note the answer I got didn't actually answer the question of when he was going to fulfill that upside.

 

[kerouac9]

No I asked a specific question and the answer I got morphed into this debate.

note the answer I got didn't actually answer the question of when he was going to fulfill that upside.

Maybe he has. Maybe instead of a slow progression from a "terrible" quarterback to a dependable middle-of-the-road starter has been for Smith a quantum leap. If this is his ceiling, then I think a lot of teams could live with that.

They're not going to live with that for a 6 year, $80 million contract, but it's possible that Alex Smith actually is who I thought that Kyle Orton was. Maybe he can get a little better, but he's never going to be a Franchise QB.

 

[Russ Smith]

Maybe he has. Maybe instead of a slow progression from a "terrible" quarterback to a dependable middle-of-the-road starter has been for Smith a quantum leap. If this is his ceiling, then I think a lot of teams could live with that.

They're not going to live with that for a 6 year, $80 million contract, but it's possible that Alex Smith actually is who I thought that Kyle Orton was. Maybe he can get a little better, but he's never going to be a Franchise QB.

So after 7 pages of outrage over my asking when he might fulfill that "upside" you are saying maybe he already has?

Doesn't that mean that there is no upside then if he's already realized it?

And wouldn't that mean that apparently even you don't agree with your original comment that I asked about?

 

[Phrazbit]

I didn't say he was trash I said he was a terrible QB on a great team. I don't use words like trash and garbage to describe players the way you do.

Far more huh? So one year above average out of 6 equals far more to you that's an interesting way of looking at it. He's had one year with a passer rating higher than 19th.

05 didn't make the top 34 listed (40.8 rating). 06 22nd, 07 not in top 33(57.2), 08 didn't play, 09 19th, 10 21st, 11 9th. Hey that looks remarkably like what I said before that he has had one above average season in his career.

he's improved that's obvious, but the main thing he's gotten better at is not losing games by himself.

Now if you want to come up with some metric that incorporates salary into it so a TD pass for Alex is worth more than a TD pass for a guy who makes twice as much then go for it, I think then you might get him into the top half of the NFL QB stats.

You sure dropped the whole Bronco OL thing quickly I guess you couldn't figure out a way to get around the actual sack stats and explain why Orton wasn't getting killed behind the OL you said wasn't good.

Sorry, I didnt realize you were still planting your feet in the mud on the o-line, I will get back on that right now.

The Cardinals minus Kolb had a league average line last year (and above average in the running game), you assert that Manning didnt come here because of our O-line and instead choosing Denver. Despite that there is no statistical basis or statements to back up that point.

So... I didnt bring it up again because you were wrong. If you can show me where there is any indication whatsoever that Manning swung his decision based on that... hell, you can give me second hand conjecture from a "source" if you want, then I will concede the point. But there is absolutely nothing to backup your blanket statement that Manning did not come here because of the line.

And we are arguing about whether Smith is worse than Kolb... which you seem to assert. Smith HAS had more average to above average years than "terrible" ones. 4 years now of 80+ QB rating, despite grossly inept offensive coaching until Harbaugh took over. I am not arguing that Smith is elite or even good. He is an average QB in a very ideal situation. You are asserting that he is instead terrible and the Kolb is better.

You want to explain what makes Kolb better... you go ahead. I am all ears. Its easy to to kick Smith to the curb with the putrid stats he put up early in his career, but its extremely difficult to make an argument where Kolb is a better QB right now.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Maybe he has. Maybe instead of a slow progression from a "terrible" quarterback to a dependable middle-of-the-road starter has been for Smith a quantum leap. If this is his ceiling, then I think a lot of teams could live with that.
They're not going to live with that for a 6 year, $80 million contract, but it's possible that Alex Smith actually is who I thought that Kyle Orton was. Maybe he can get a little better, but he's never going to be a Franchise QB.

This is true. I think it's really, really hard to play QB in the National Football League, and even C+ quarterbacks are hard to find.

Given a choice a guy who can post an average rating of 90 through 16 games, and "what's behind door number one" (e.g. the best QB in the next upcoming draft), I believe most teams would chose the former.

That's why you won't hear me bad mouthing smith. It's not pretty, but he's getting it done.

 

[moklerman]

SF lost the game because Alex Smith wasn't good enough to win it.

What do you think of what Aaron Rodgers did just the week before?

Green Bay was at home vs. the Giants and he completed 56.5%, 2TD/1INT 76.5 Rating and the 15-1 Packers were one-and-done. Was Rodgers also not good enough to win it?

Smith had 5TD(+1 rushing)/0INT and a 101.0 Rating in two playoff games in 2011.

Granted, I agree that he's more Trent Dilfer than Joe Montana but "terrible"? I don't think terrible QB's put up 100+ ratings and average 3 TD per game in the playoffs.

 

[moklerman]

21. Sam Bradford - But not worse than Sam Bradford. What is it that Sam Bradford does well? I understand that he's been through some major coaching turnover, but I'm struggling to identify one outstanding skill that Sam Bradford possesses.

I didn't think anyone would ever have it worse than Alex Smith but I think Bradford actually has.

In addition to being in 3 different systems in 3 consecutive years, his first year he had an abbreviated offseason because of Oklahoma's graduation date and wasn't even going to start so his reps were limited until Feeley got hurt. His 2nd year, he didn't have an offseason because of the lockout and is not given a QB coach the whole season.

Year one, he loses his top receiver Mark Clayton and then Danny Amendola. Year two Clayton's never healthy and Amendola's injured in game 1 for the whole year. This year, they STILL don't get him a legitimate #1 WR. And all of his receivers have plagued the offense with dropped passes, missed reads and miscommunication/bad routes.

And I'm pretty sure the o-line hasn't started the same 5 for more than 2 games in a row the whole time he's been a pro.

So, while I can see how his numbers may not look all that great, he's really dealt with some adversity IMO. That he isn't David Carr'd already is a testament to his fortitude and as to what he does well, he's accurate with his passing, makes very few mistakes and actually has a nice deep ball now that Givens is acclimating to the NFL.

Many of the shortcomings that Bradford has displayed have been prolonged by the terrible coaching of Spagnuolo and company. His growth as a QB was very stunted from mid-2010 through 2011. In many ways, this is very much like year 2 for Bradford and he's growing through the trials and tribulations of taking risks that a QB has to take to ascend to the next level.

His completions %, yards per attempt and passer rating are all up even though he had a couple of rough starts and he's finally displaying some comfort and confidence on the field. The last few games he's finally starting to establish himself as a leader and directing guys to where they should be. That wasn't the case his first two years and a big reason why switching offenses on a young QB isn't exactly the best thing to do.

I think as early as after the bye, the Rams offense will look a lot better.