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Imagine you’re drafting tomorrow in a 12-team PPR league. Who would be the top three bust candidates to fade in the first round? The following is based on current average draft positions (ADPs).
In the summer of 2020, when Christian McCaffrey had the #1 overall ADP, I repeatedly explained to readers why he was a huge injury and/or regression candidate. Four summers later, when McCaffrey once again had the #1 overall ADP, I repeatedly explained (again) to readers why he was (again) a huge injury and/or regression candidate.
In both seasons, he destroyed the title hopes of millions of managers and upended the thinking of nearly every fantasy expert. Of course, he did, because that’s usually what happens when running backs collect 400+ touches the previous season.
Now the nearly 30-year-old is coming off a 450-touch campaign (including the playoffs). Yet the market somehow thinks he’s a can’t-miss elite RB. When history repeats itself more than 90% of the time, put your trust in history. In the history of the NFL, RBs with 400+ touches -- especially 27-year-olds and older -- face major regressions and/or serious injuries. McCaffrey’s overall-6 ADP makes him a high-probability bust.
James Cook (overall-11 ADP) is also overvalued, though for slightly different reasons. Most little-used college running backs have brief fantasy-relevant careers. Cook mustered fewer than 300 touches at Georgia but hit 385 last year. History shows that, despite his obvious talent and ceiling, he’s at minimum a moderate regression risk.
Finally, the market is too bullish about Justin Jefferson (overall-12 ADP). Sure, last year was an anomaly, as he was an elite per-game fantasy wideout for the previous five seasons. But his success hinges almost entirely on the Vikings starting at least a middling quarterback. If J.J. McCarthy somehow wins the starting job, he would need to improve dramatically for Jefferson to post even second-round-caliber numbers.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals took a cap hit in excess of $50 million just to get rid of Kyler Murray, who was outplayed by longtime journeyman Jacoby Brissett. The market might think Murray will return to form in Minnesota. I think the odds are below 50%, making Jefferson too risky for the first round.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Top three bust candidates in the first round of fantasy drafts
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In the summer of 2020, when Christian McCaffrey had the #1 overall ADP, I repeatedly explained to readers why he was a huge injury and/or regression candidate. Four summers later, when McCaffrey once again had the #1 overall ADP, I repeatedly explained (again) to readers why he was (again) a huge injury and/or regression candidate.
In both seasons, he destroyed the title hopes of millions of managers and upended the thinking of nearly every fantasy expert. Of course, he did, because that’s usually what happens when running backs collect 400+ touches the previous season.
Now the nearly 30-year-old is coming off a 450-touch campaign (including the playoffs). Yet the market somehow thinks he’s a can’t-miss elite RB. When history repeats itself more than 90% of the time, put your trust in history. In the history of the NFL, RBs with 400+ touches -- especially 27-year-olds and older -- face major regressions and/or serious injuries. McCaffrey’s overall-6 ADP makes him a high-probability bust.
James Cook (overall-11 ADP) is also overvalued, though for slightly different reasons. Most little-used college running backs have brief fantasy-relevant careers. Cook mustered fewer than 300 touches at Georgia but hit 385 last year. History shows that, despite his obvious talent and ceiling, he’s at minimum a moderate regression risk.
Finally, the market is too bullish about Justin Jefferson (overall-12 ADP). Sure, last year was an anomaly, as he was an elite per-game fantasy wideout for the previous five seasons. But his success hinges almost entirely on the Vikings starting at least a middling quarterback. If J.J. McCarthy somehow wins the starting job, he would need to improve dramatically for Jefferson to post even second-round-caliber numbers.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals took a cap hit in excess of $50 million just to get rid of Kyler Murray, who was outplayed by longtime journeyman Jacoby Brissett. The market might think Murray will return to form in Minnesota. I think the odds are below 50%, making Jefferson too risky for the first round.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Top three bust candidates in the first round of fantasy drafts
Continue reading...
