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Boston, MA - May 13: Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela wears the Wally the Green Monster head after hitting a home run in the sixth inning. The Boston Red Sox played the Philadelphia Phillies at Fenway Park on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Even with the returns of Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, the Mariners continue to be beset by injuries. Julio Rodriguez was held out of Thursday’s game with a minor hamstring injury and Luke Raley missed the entire series against the Orioles thanks to the flu. Somehow, the only part of the team that hasn’t been affected by injury is the starting rotation. We’ll see the return of the piggybacking strategy this weekend to alleviate the issues the six-man rotation caused over the last few weeks.
| Game | Time | Mariners Starter | Red Sox Starter | Mariners Win% | Red Sox Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Friday, June 19 | 7:10 pm | RHP Bryce Miller / RHP Luis Castillo | LHP Ranger Suarez | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Game 2 | Saturday, June 20 | 7:10 pm | RHP Emerson Hancock | LHP Connelly Early | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Game 3 | Sunday, June 21 | 1:10 pm | RHP Logan Gilbert | LHP Payton Tolle | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Overview | Mariners | Red Sox | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting (wRC+) | 104 (3rd in AL) | 90 (15th in AL) | Mariners |
| Fielding (FRV) | -18 (14th) | 16 (1st) | Red Sox |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 89 (3rd) | 99 (8th) | Mariners |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 92 (5th) | 90 (4th) | Red Sox |
The Red Sox entered this season looking like one of the stronger teams in the AL East. They had navigated an awkward transition away from their older core, graduated a bunch of top prospects in 2025, and brought in a bunch of talented players during the offseason. Things quickly went off the rails. Manager Alex Cora was fired at the end of April after the team had limped to a 10-17 start to the season. Injuries to Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony further depleted the talent on the roster and the lineup has been one of the most punchless in baseball. Things have gone so bad in Boston, the team is already considering selling at the trade deadline despite the gross mediocrity plaguing the entire American League.
| Player | Position | Bats | PA | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | DH | S | 103 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 0.075 | 83 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | R | 272 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 0.163 | 116 |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | L | 307 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 0.152 | 106 |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | R | 292 | 26.0% | 9.2% | 0.253 | 153 |
| Jarren Duran | LF | L | 297 | 29.0% | 6.7% | 0.180 | 76 |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | R | 229 | 14.0% | 5.7% | 0.130 | 53 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | R | 132 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 0.084 | 96 |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | L | 208 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 0.086 | 61 |
| Connor Wong | C | R | 92 | 228.0% | 8.7% | 0.101 | 103 |
It turns out, it’s really difficult to replace superstars like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. Those players were shipped out of Boston in the name of payroll flexibility, but the team has done an extremely poor job of replacing that talent on their roster. The result is an offense that has scored the fewest runs in the AL with a 90 wRC+. Sure, Roman Anthony was supposed to be a core piece in the lineup, and he has missed more than a month due to a sprained finger, but he had only produced a 91 wRC+ before getting injured. The lone bright spot has been the excellence of Willson Contreras. Acquired from the Cardinals to fill the gaping hole at first base, he’s been one of the best at the position in baseball this year, blasting 16 home runs and running a career high 157 wRC+.
The real problem for the Red Sox is guys like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Caleb Durbin all taking a hefty step backwards this season. Combined with the lack of development from former top prospect Marcelo Mayer and you can see why the team has struggled to consistently score runs this year.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
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| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 70 | 24.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 38.0% | 3.21 | 2.83 |
| Bryce Miller | 35 | 28.8% | 4.0% | 11.1% | 40.2% | 1.54 | 2.96 |
| Luis Castillo | 66.2 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 37.2% | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 19.1% | 27.5% | 91.8 | 84 | 93 | 121 | 0.316 |
| Sinker | 20.5% | 41.1% | 90.6 | 96 | 128 | 70 | 0.318 |
| Cutter | 27.1% | 2.4% | 88.2 | 92 | 66 | 118 | 0.299 |
| Changeup | 17.5% | 7.3% | 81.3 | 94 | 93 | 105 | 0.300 |
| Curveball | 15.3% | 16.0% | 75.5 | 110 | 131 | 158 | 0.204 |
| Slider | 0.4% | 5.6% | 78.0 |
After a stint in Philadelphia where he was constantly overshadowed by the bigger names in the Phillies’ rotation, Ranger Suarez signed a huge five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox this offseason. He wasn’t a big name prospect, doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he owns a 3.25 ERA and 15.2 fWAR since joining the starting rotation full time in 2021. Excellent command, a bit of deception, and a deep repertoire all combine to help him run excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios while also limiting the amount of hard contact he allows. His sinker is one of the best in baseball and his curveball provides plenty of whiffs when he really needs to get a strikeout.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early | 75.2 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 40.7% | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| Emerson Hancock | 79.2 | 24.0% | 5.4% | 12.5% | 41.5% | 3.28 | 3.80 |
| Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 38.9% | 34.3% | 93.8 | 104 | 109 | 94 | 0.336 |
| Sinker | 13.7% | 51.1% | 92.3 | 96 | 103 | 85 | 0.354 |
| Changeup | 24.9% | 3.4% | 83.6 | 102 | 68 | 78 | 0.330 |
| Curveball | 15.1% | 3.4% | 79.9 | 105 | 59 | 77 | 0.390 |
| Slider | 7.4% | 7.7% | 86.8 | 100 | |||
| Sweeper | 0.9% | 28.3% | 82.2 | 100 |
Connelly Early made his big league debut last fall, showcasing strong strikeout stuff with good command. Ranked fourth overall on this year’s Red Sox prospect list, his first full season in the majors has been a little shaky this year. He moved through the minor leagues extremely quickly after being drafted in the fifth round in 2023, so it’s possible his struggles this year are simply normal speed bumps in his development trajectory. He’s got a deep six-pitch repertoire and likes to mix and match his pitch mix to avoid becoming too predictable. He’s got a pair of strong fastballs, an excellent changeup, and a trio of breaking balls to attack batters with.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | 58.1 | 25.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 34.4% | 2.93 | 3.08 |
| Logan Gilbert | 86.2 | 26.6% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 32.9% | 3.43 | 3.79 |
| Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 51.7% | 41.4% | 96.1 | 126 | 123 | 106 | 0.190 |
| Sinker | 20.4% | 34.0% | 95.0 | 98 | 94 | 114 | 0.394 |
| Cutter | 14.2% | 19.9% | 88.4 | 102 | 105 | 156 | 0.240 |
| Changeup | 4.3% | 0.0% | 88.5 | ||||
| Curveball | 9.4% | 4.7% | 82.3 | 120 |
Payton Tolle raced through the Red Sox farm system last year. After being drafted in 2024, he made his pro debut the following spring and was eventually pitching in the big leagues by the end of the season. His fastball is one of the best in all of baseball; he throws hard from the left side, the pitch has tremendous carry at the top of the zone, and his 6’ 6” frame provides a ton of extension down the mound. His secondary pitches are still a work in progress but his plus plus fastball has enough quality that he can get by without a breaking ball or offspeed pitch. If he ever develops a consistent secondary weapon or two, watch out.
The Big Picture:
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Run Diff | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 39-37 | 0.513 | — | +23 | L-L-W-L-W |
| Athletics | 37-38 | 0.493 | 1.5 | -46 | L-W-L-L-W |
| Rangers | 35-39 | 0.473 | 3.0 | -12 | L-W-L-L-L |
| Astros | 35-41 | 0.461 | 4.0 | -41 | W-L-L-W-W |
| Angels | 30-46 | 0.395 | 9.0 | -44 | L-L-W-L-L |
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Run Diff | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 41-30 | 0.577 | +6.0 | +5 | L-W-L-L-L |
| Guardians | 40-35 | 0.533 | +3.0 | -7 | W-W-L-L-W |
| Blue Jays | 37-38 | 0.493 | — | -13 | L-L-W-W-W |
| Athletics | 37-38 | 0.493 | — | -46 | L-W-L-L-W |
| Twins | 36-40 | 0.474 | 1.5 | -24 | L-W-W-W-W |
| Rangers | 35-39 | 0.473 | 1.5 | -12 | L-W-L-L-L |
The Athletics wound up losing their series against the Pirates earlier this week but started off a four-game set against the Angels with a win last night. The Rangers were swept by the Twins, slipping down the Wild Card standings into a tie with Minnesota; Texas hosts the Padres this weekend. The Astros just took two of three from the Tigers and will get an opportunity to affect the AL Central standings even further with a series against the Guardians.
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