Rematch: Mariners vs. Blue Jays Series Preview

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TORONTO, ON - JUNE 29: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after lining out in the third inning of a game against the New York Mets at Rogers Centre on June 29, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Thank goodness for the Angels. The Mariners climbed back over .500 with a sweep of their division rival after a brief dip below that mark following their series in Cleveland last weekend. The three wins against Los Angeles allowed Seattle to keep pace with the Rangers in the division and pull ahead of the faltering Athletics and Astros. They’ll wrap up this homestand with a jam packed weekend series against the Blue Jays.

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Blue Jays Starter	Mariners Win%	Blue Jays Win%
Game 1	Friday, July 3 | 7:10 pm	RHP Luis Castillo	RHP Dylan Cease	49.6%	50.4%
Game 2	Saturday, July 4 | 1:10 pm	RHP Logan Gilbert / RHP Emerson Hancock	RHP Shane Bieber	60.3%	39.7%
Game 3	Sunday, July 5 | 2:00 pm	RHP George Kirby	RHP Trey Yesavage	58.3%	41.7%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Overview	Mariners	Blue Jays	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	102 (9th in AL)	95 (12th in AL)	Mariners
Fielding (FRV)	-23 (14th)	16 (2nd)	Blue Jays
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	86 (1st)	99 (9th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	88 (2nd)	92 (4th)	Mariners

This rematch of last year’s ALCS isn’t nearly as exciting as it could have been. Like the Mariners, the Blue Jays have largely scuffled to start this year following their deep postseason run last fall. Injuries have played a huge role in those struggles; Toronto currently has 10 players on the IL and has lost the second most total WARP of any team this season according to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger. The starting rotation has been hit particularly hard but the lineup has suffered plenty of impactful injuries as well. Combined with a pretty sizable playoff hangover from some of their stars, the Blue Jays are stuck in the morass of mediocre teams in the middle of the AL.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
George Springer	DH	R	279	20.1%	10.0%	0.152	93
Nathan Lukes	RF	L	183	15.8%	4.9%	0.120	117
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	R	348	11.2%	10.3%	0.083	96
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	R	344	32.0%	9.6%	0.224	119
Daulton Varsho	CF	L	275	21.1%	8.7%	0.165	108
Alejandro Kirk	C	R	73	15.1%	8.2%	0.121	69
Ernie Clement	2B	R	335	10.1%	3.6%	0.140	111
Yohendrick Piñango	LF	L	151	22.5%	6.0%	0.155	105
Andrés Giménez	SS	L	289	19.7%	3.5%	0.135	81

That’s not a typo: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s isolated power currently starts with a zero. He’s hit just four home runs this year and is limping through the worst season of his career. His groundball rate is up slightly, though not outside the range he’s posted throughout his career, but his hard hit rate is down more than five points and his barrel rate has been cut in half. For whatever reason, his contact quality has taken a steep dive this year. George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho have all taken pretty significant steps backwards this season as well. The good news is that Kazuma Okamoto has made a strong transition over from Japan; he’s blasted 19 home runs already and is running a 119 wRC+ even after a rough April when he was getting acclimated to MLB pitching.

Probable Pitchers​

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Dylan Cease	83.1	36.7%	11.5%	8.8%	44.6%	3.02	2.36
Luis Castillo	76.2	21.5%	7.7%	9.1%	35.9%	4.93	3.94

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	35.7%	38.4%	97.7	117	139	98	0.299
Sinker	15.9%	6.4%	96.3	93	115	187	0.291
Changeup	0.9%	18.7%	83.9	99	213	147	0.258
Curveball	6.2%	12.2%	82.7	90	102	72	0.298
Slider	41.4%	24.3%	89.3	108	134	116	0.239
Sweeper	9.7%	1.5%	84.2	108

Dylan Cease was the Blue Jays’ headlining acquisition this past offseason when he signed a seven-year, $210 million free agent contract just before Thanksgiving. He’s long been one of baseball’s best strikeout artists, though all those punchouts come with some spotty command. He’s usually able to make it work because he can just work out of any trouble he gets into by avoiding contact altogether, but he can also be prone to big blowups from time to time if his command really slips. He primarily relies on a hard fastball and a nasty slider as his out pitches. He’s increased the usage of his changeup this year and it’s been nearly unhittable; the whiff rate on his offspeed pitch is over 66%!

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Shane Bieber (2025)	40.1	23.3%	4.4%	21.1%	48.2%	3.57	4.47
Logan Gilbert	100	27.0%	5.6%	12.1%	35.0%	3.42	3.60
Emerson Hancock	90.2	24.2%	6.1%	11.9%	41.5%	3.47	3.77

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	33.9%	37.4%	92.6	94	101	87	0.364
Cutter	10.4%	14.9%	87.4	84
Changeup	8.2%	17.3%	89.1	101
Curveball	11.4%	25.5%	82.6	89	72	101	0.329
Slider	36.1%	4.9%	85.4	90	111	60	0.263

Shane Bieber missed nearly all of 2024 and most of ‘25 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Traded to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline last year, he was solid enough down the stretch, though Toronto’s deep run in the playoffs likely contributed to the forearm fatigue he was diagnosed with this spring. He wound up missing the first three months of the season and only made his return from the IL a few weeks ago. At his peak, he utilized pinpoint command of a pair of breaking balls to make up for a pretty mediocre fastball. His command has mostly eluded him after his elbow injury and his fastball quality has further deteriorated. That doesn’t bode well for his ability to stay productive until he can find a way to adjust.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Trey Yesavage	67.1	22.3%	10.9%	6.6%	33.3%	3.34	3.88
George Kirby	104	21.1%	5.6%	9.5%	49.0%	3.81	3.70

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	45.0%	46.7%	94.4	94	80	112	0.296
Splitter	16.3%	42.2%	82.9	137	119	117	0.247
Slider	38.6%	11.0%	88.0	104	111	117	0.280

In his first professional season, Trey Yesavage rose from Single-A all the way to the big leagues last year and ultimately helped lead the Blue Jays to their World Series appearance. It was a tremendous debut. A minor shoulder injury delayed his start to this season, but once he returned healthy, he picked up right where he left off. Everything is vertical with Yesavage’s profile. His extreme over-the-top delivery helps him produce a ton of carry on his fastball, and his two secondary pitches have very little horizontal break on them. His splitter continues to be a devastating pitch and he’s been able to improve the command of his slider this year.

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The Big Picture:​

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Rangers	45-43	0.511	—	-2	W-W-W-L-W
Mariners	45-43	0.511	—	+14	L-L-W-W-W
Astros	43-46	0.483	2.5	-46	W-W-L-W-L
Athletics	41-46	0.471	3.5	-59	L-L-L-L-W
Angels	36-52	0.409	9.0	-46	W-W-L-L-L

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Yankees	48-38	0.558	+4.0	+87	L-L-L-L-L
Guardians	46-42	0.523	+1.0	-7	W-L-L-W-W
Mariners	45-43	0.511	—	+14	L-L-W-W-W
Astros	43-46	0.483	2.5	-46	W-W-L-W-L
Twins	42-46	0.477	3.0	-26	L-W-W-L-W

The Rangers lost on Wednesday to allow the idle Mariners to slip into a tie atop the AL West, but won the first game of a three-game set against the Tigers yesterday. Texas and Detroit are off on Friday to accommodate a World Cup game in Arlington but will resume their series on Saturday. The Astros lost their series to the Twins this week and will play host to the hottest team in the AL this weekend, the Rays, winners of eight straight. The Athletics couldn’t keep up with the Dodgers, though they managed to salvage a win on Wednesday. They host the red hot Marlins this weekend, the team with the best record in baseball in June.

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