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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 29: The New York Mets Home Run Apple is seen after the New York Mets defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-3 in the game at Citi Field on April 29, 2025 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Fresh off back-to-back sweeps of the A’s and the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mariners enter June in first place in their division, with a 31-29 record. Never a doubt, right?
| Game | Time | Mariners Starter | Mets Starter | Mariners Win% | Mets Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Monday, June 1 | 6:40 pm | RHP Emerson Hancock | RHP Austin Warren / LHP Sean Manaea | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Game 2 | Tuesday, June 2 | 6:40 pm | RHP Logan Gilbert | RHP Jonah Tong | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Game 3 | Wednesday, June 3 | 12:40 pm | RHP George Kirby | RHP Freddy Peralta | 55.5% | 44.5% |
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
| Overview | Mariners | Mets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting (wRC+) | 108 (2nd in AL) | 88 (13th in NL) | Mariners |
| Fielding (FRV) | -15 (14th) | -6 (12th) | Mets |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 90 (5th) | 94 (5th) | Mariners |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 90 (2nd) | 84 (5th) | Mets |
Let’s set the scene together, shall we? Think back to the early (and then not-so-early) days of this Mariners season, when everything felt chaotic in all the worst ways. Players were dropping like flies, former stalwarts looked awful and the vibes were all around bad. Take all that, stuff it into the New York media megaphone and then add many more millions of dollars of salary and stress. Ta da! You’ve got the 2026 Mets. Carlos Mendoza is treating every day like a gift (and by gift, we mean a package left on your doorstep, shoddily wrapped and disconcertingly lumpy, with no return label or other markings). But, credit to ‘em, they’re riding a nice little win streak of their own and could be in the midst of turning things around. Regardless of how the series transpires, it seems Mets fans are overwhelmingly unbothered by us PNWers.
| Player | Position | Bats | PA | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | RF | L | 217 | 21.2% | 7.4% | 0.106 | 97 |
| Bo Bichette | SS | R | 258 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 0.089 | 69 |
| Juan Soto | LF | L | 180 | 14.4% | 13.3% | 0.292 | 175 |
| Jared Young | DH | L | 39 | 20.5% | 12.8% | 0.152 | 140 |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | L | 74 | 32.4% | 12.2% | 0.079 | 94 |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | R | 192 | 20.8% | 3.6% | 0.165 | 83 |
| Brett Baty | 3B | L | 195 | 28.2% | 9.2% | 0.110 | 87 |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | R | 233 | 19.7% | 6.9% | 0.108 | 76 |
| Luis Torrens | C | R | 103 | 20.4% | 4.9% | 0.075 | 66 |
If you’re looking at this lineup wondering “Hey, this is a weird list of players. I thought [insert names including Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Kodai Senga and more] was on the Mets this year?” you’re absolutely correct. They’re supposed to be on the Mets, but they are instead, unfortunately, hurt. It’s been part of their whole issue. Other components to the Mets’ issues include Bo Bichette being what some physicians might diagnose as “refried ass,” Marcus Semien being old and Luis Torrens, sweetie pie that he is, being their everyday catcher. The outfield is Juan Soto and a duo of babies with promising upside, and former Doosan Bear Jared Young is having the season of his life. They’re an offense that’s been trending positively of late, but whether that’s because they set the bar so low at the start or because they’ve truly turned things around remains to be seen.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 34 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 34.7% | 5.56 | 3.65 |
| Emerson Hancock | 64.2 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 12.1% | 43.5% | 2.78 | 3.56 |
| Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 60.9% | 50.0% | 90.2 | 97 | 90 | 79 | 0.356 |
| Sinker | 19.2% | 43.8% | 89.7 | 93 | 59 | 104 | 0.394 |
| Cutter | 9.4% | 3.9% | 83.9 | 96 | |||
| Changeup | 10.4% | 2.3% | 83.0 | 85 | |||
| Sweeper | 44.0% | 60.2% | 74.5 | 119 | 94 | 128 | 0.264 |
Sean Manaea enjoyed a resurgence in his first season with the Mets back in 2024, keyed by a new arm slot and a new sweeper. He struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness last year and was relegated to the bullpen to start this season. With David Peterson limping to a 5.18 ERA in 13 appearances, the Mets have opted to move Manaea back into the rotation. The team will use Austin Warren as an opener and then turn to Manaea for the bulk of the middle innings. He’s still reliant on his fastball-sweeper combo but he’s widened his arsenal by reintroducing a sinker and cutter into his repertoire. Those two pitches have helped him manage his platoon split a bit better this year.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Tong (MiLB) | 38 | 32.7% | 14.3% | 27.6% | 42.2% | 5.68 | 5.42 |
| Logan Gilbert | 68.1 | 25.0% | 5.8% | 13.4% | 35.3% | 3.69 | 3.97 |
Jonah Tong flew through the Mets’ minor league system after being drafted in the seventh round in the 2022 draft. He made his big league debut late last year after posting a 1.43 ERA across 22 minor league starts. Tong’s success rides on a plus plus fastball that has a ton of carry at the top of the zone. His secondary pitches are a little less developed; his changeup is the best of the lot but his cutter and curveball look decidedly average right now. Tong started the year in the minors but the Mets recalled him a few weeks ago when Clay Holmes went down with his leg injury. He’s worked behind an opener in his two outings and I’d expect the Mets to continue that strategy to protect Tong from over exposure.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 66 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 41.3% | 3.55 | 3.94 |
| George Kirby | 74 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 52.7% | 3.77 | 3.47 |
| Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 55.9% | 52.7% | 93.9 | 96 | 102 | 103 | 0.323 |
| Changeup | 20.2% | 25.5% | 87.3 | 87 | 87 | 104 | 0.249 |
| Curveball | 9.4% | 16.2% | 79.1 | 111 | 103 | 81 | 0.291 |
| Slider | 14.5% | 5.6% | 83.0 | 97 | 147 | 133 | 0.429 |
Freddy Peralta was one of the Mets’ headlining acquisitions this offseason. Acquired in a trade from the Brewers, Peralta was expected to give New York an ace to lead the starting rotation. His fastball is his best pitch; he gets a ton of extension down the mound and his short stature produces a flat approach angle that really fools hitters. He’s got a trio of above average secondary pitches, though the effectiveness of each has waned a bit this year. He can be a little wild with his command, but has enough deception to generate high chase rates out of the zone. At times, that wildness can lead to a bunch of walks, but he’s usually able to overcome those extra base runners with a ton of strikeouts.
The Big Picture:
The AL West
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Run Diff | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 31-29 | 0.517 | +30 | W-W-W-W-W | |
| Athletics | 28-31 | 0.475 | 2.5 | -34 | L-L-L-W-L |
| Rangers | 28-31 | 0.475 | 2.5 | +7 | L-L-W-W-W |
| Astros | 27-34 | 0.443 | 4.5 | -33 | W-W-L-W-L |
| Angels | 23-37 | 0.383 | 8.0 | -51 | L-W-L-W-L |
The Mariners have a two and a half game lead in their division and are currently the only team above .500. If that feels fragile to you, how about this: Only your teams in the American League have a record over .500. If the playoffs began today, the 29-31 Toronto Blue Jays would have Wild Card 3. Everyone in the West embarks on interleague play this week, which should be varying levels of entertaining. Me personally? I’ll be tuning in to Rockies vs Angels. As the towering pile of laundry I promised myself I’d do yesterday but eschewed in favor of attending the M’s game can attest, sometimes a little mess can feel good.
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