The Trade

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
7,077
Reaction score
11,712
Location
Orlando, FL
If you play blackjack (or even if you don’t) when you’re dealt a blackjack (21) and the dealer has an ace showing you can take (win) even money and end the hand. If you decline and the dealer has 21 it’s a push (draw) and no money is won or lost. If the dealer has less than 21, you win 1.5 times your bet. Last night the Cards took even money. They went for the sure thing selection and made a trade. They gave up 5 years of control and settled for 2 years of certainty.

Why? Well first, because all the players likely to have a significant, immediate impact were gone. You could argue for Wyatt but he’d be something of a gamble to be high impact. Then there’s the Johnson mystery. I’ve have asked and so far, at least, there is no smoking gun. I’ll post more on Johnson separately. For the moment and using Occam’s Razor, I’m proceeding with the premise the Cards entered the draft fully intending to come out of round 1 with an immediate impact receiver. For my money only Olave, Wilson and maybe London fit that description. I’m quite sure they had the Brown option in their pocket all along, but if they saw that as their main intention they would have made the trade earlier. Perhaps they would have done so before the draft. Waiting might have meant the Ravens would get a better offer.

So, when their receiver targets were gone, there was possibly only one remaining issue, the third round pick. Frankly this selection made the trade even more appealing. As I noted during the draft, here in Nashville both of the old time gurus and the former full-time scout at this event, all liked the trade from the AZ side and hated it from the Ravens side.

What made this trade good? First Brown is a proven commodity. He’s not Hopkins and he drops some throws, but he’s productive. He’s a sure thing.

Second, he’s improved every year and plays on a team where he’s often going against the opponent’s top corner. He’ll be now playing in a passing oriented offense, surrounded by other threats.

Third, he’s a true deep threat. Every season he’s scored at least one long TD. He spreads the field creating opportunities for others. Getting multiple defenders to turn their backs should help the running game as well.

Fourth, Murray knows him. There’s no denying Murray doesn’t easily trust WRs. So, getting someone with whom Murray already has rapport is significant. This should pay immediate dividends. I’ve seen Murray criticized for orchestrating the trade. Frankly, every QB I’ve known had favorite targets. In this case there were so many reasons for making this trade, Murray was just a contributing factor.

Finally, there was the sandwich pick. Did you ever wonder why so many pre-draft article were called “The Top 150?” It’s because in the typical draft 150 would encompass all the immediately useful players. So pick 100 is not a throw in. It’s most often at least a useful role player or developmental prospect. Suppose you wanted a punter? You could take Matt Araiza, who averages over 51 yards a kick. Those Aussies have big legs, but if you want immediate productivity look at this stat line. 67 total punts: 46.0 yards per punt, 35 inside the 20 yard line, only 3 touchbacks and 30 fair catches (44.8%). That’s Jordan Stout from Penn State. Araiza frequently out-kicks his coverage. It’s just physics and also he has too many touchbacks. Need an RB? You’ve likely have either James Cook or Brian Robinson on the board. Then there’s Alontae Taylor is a corner with ballhawking potential. He’s raw but could develop some smooth. He would contribute immediately on special teams. Wyatt Davis offers a G with run blocking ability and is decent in pass protection. He’s a little still, but plays with good physicality. It’s easy to get lost at a weak program, especially when injured. Dayo Odeyingbo is an Edge with starter potential, but he’s a project. He didn’t get good college coaching IMO, but he’s got the raw ingredients. My point here is there are valuable players to be had at this stage in the draft. This is a useful pick.

In the end this trade does one more thing. It ends the discussion about whether Murray is the long term plan at QB. He is. Sure there’s still contracts to get done, but those are now formalities. This provides the long term stability this team has lacked. I still have concerns about some aspects of Murray’s contributions, but the Cards have moved past them and the rest of us must simply accept that reality.
 

BurqueCardFan

Hall of Famer
Joined
Aug 17, 2006
Posts
1,312
Reaction score
765
Location
Albuquerque, NM
I'm just not sure Hollywood Brown is worth a 1st rounder. AJ Brown?, sure. Deebo?, yes. Hollywood? Not so sure.
I wonder if we could have just traded him straight up for a second? Instead of getting back the 3rd. Then we could have drafted The DE Johnson and had Hollywood for a 2nd (didn't we basically get Hopkins for a 2nd and I'm pretty sure he is better than Hollywood?). Not sure if the Ravens would have gone for it. But then again the Ravens FO/staff is head and shoulders better than what we got, so I'm sure they wouldn't have.
 

Shane

Current STAR
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
60,730
Reaction score
18,590
Location
Las Vegas
I'm just not sure Hollywood Brown is worth a 1st rounder. AJ Brown?, sure. Deebo?, yes. Hollywood? Not so sure.
I wonder if we could have just traded him straight up for a second? Instead of getting back the 3rd. Then we could have drafted The DE Johnson and had Hollywood for a 2nd (didn't we basically get Hopkins for a 2nd and I'm pretty sure he is better than Hollywood?). Not sure if the Ravens would have gone for it. But then again the Ravens FO/staff is head and shoulders better than what we got, so I'm sure they wouldn't have.
Obviously we traded what it took to get him….. We were willing to pay it. Getting back the 3rd helps. Somebody is worth what someone is willing to give for them.
 

overseascardfan

ASFN Addict
Joined
Apr 9, 2005
Posts
8,244
Reaction score
1,510
Location
Phoenix
Then there’s the Johnson mystery. I’ve have asked and so far, at least, there is no smoking gun. I’ll post more on Johnson separately.
I kept saying, sometimes guys drop for other than a last minute incident (arrest / altercation / drug test result) being discovered. I wanted him but maybe GM's figured him to be a one year wonder. NYJ had a hell of a first round capping it off trading back into 1st round to stop Johnson's fall at #26.
 

NashDishesDimes

Hall of Famer
Joined
Dec 16, 2008
Posts
1,650
Reaction score
224
Doesnt change that have to pay him soon, and Dhop. One of the biggest values of a rook is cheap money for a few years with hopeful production. You need cheap production in a salary cap league, especially with the cash theyre going to give Kyler
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
12,049
Reaction score
8,246
Location
Plainfield, Il.
Great post Harry. I kind of felt your even money analysis is spot on. You can’t look back at who was still available at 23.
I feel our next biggest need is an Edge rusher and I would love an explosive running back like Hall or Walker.
I don’t care about money control. If it helps us win today we’ll work things out.
 

dreamcastrocks

Chopped Liver Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Posts
41,446
Reaction score
4,460
I always take even money.

I don't always hit on 16 though, that is about the only way I don't play blackjack by the book.
 

az jam

ASFN Icon
Joined
Mar 6, 2004
Posts
12,214
Reaction score
3,466
Location
Scottsdale, AZ
Love the write up, Harry. Really looking forward to the 2nd day draft tonight, some good players are there for sure.
 

jf-08

Administrator; Rules Creator
Administrator
Super Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
19,204
Reaction score
6,790
Location
Chandler
Great analysis, Harry.
 

overseascardfan

ASFN Addict
Joined
Apr 9, 2005
Posts
8,244
Reaction score
1,510
Location
Phoenix
Oh man, I thought ARZ made 2 trades and scored a 3rd & 4th rounder but they traded #23 to BAL and BAL traded down and picked up the 4th rounder from BUF for dropping down 2 spots.

BAL is the best front office in NFL. After thinking about it and hearing analysts take, I think ARZ overpaid. Brown is being touted as a deep threat but he averaged around 11 yards per reception. You can argue LJ is not a great passing QB but Mark Andrews had almost 1400 yards receiving last year.
 

QuebecCard

Hall of Famer
Joined
Mar 12, 2021
Posts
2,292
Reaction score
3,166
Location
Quebec City, Le Vieux Québec
Oh man, I thought ARZ made 2 trades and scored a 3rd & 4th rounder but they traded #23 to BAL and BAL traded down and picked up the 4th rounder from BUF for dropping down 2 spots.

BAL is the best front office in NFL. After thinking about it and hearing analysts take, I think ARZ overpaid. Brown is being touted as a deep threat but he averaged around 11 yards per reception. You can argue LJ is not a great passing QB but Mark Andrews had almost 1400 yards receiving last year.

Two things are required to exploit via deep throws.

1. a wideout with speed.
2. a QB who can throw a catchable deep ball.

The Ravens' had point one and not number two.

The Cards have #2 covered with KM.

Mark Andrew's numbers reflect the relatively short passing game of the 8-9 Ravens, and despite Hollywood not being used optimally he still caught 91 for over a thousand yards.

Imagine 'Smokey' Brown at his best with AZ.
 

Latest posts

Members online

Forum statistics

Threads
477,778
Posts
4,781,479
Members
6,157
Latest member
Mindlessfan
Top