The Game of Trading Down

Harry

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Everyone points out you have to find someone willing to move up. So the real question is why would a team move up? The most obvious answer is need, but it’s really more complex. All teams have needs so what spurs a team to move? The first issue is often supply. Some positions are perennially in short supply. Quality QBs are the most common example, followed closely by CBs. However players truly capable of being game changing are also move up targets. Uniquely skilled pass rushers fit that bill. It’s also a “follow the money” game. With edge rushers getting the big bucks it’s causing more top athletes to move to that position. Think BPA. Some times a great interior D-lineman offers the opportunity to both shutdown the run and collapse the pocket. Cyclical shortages push other positions into demand. Often this is true because of changes in the college game. Differences in current college offenses from the NFL have made NFL capable offensive linemen a rare commodity. Of course in any draft some position pools may be unusually thin. Several scouts believe this is a weak draft for number one receivers.

As the draft winds on, it’s critical to correctly assess the landscape. A run on a particular position may induce a suddenly desperate team to move up. The Cards have been guilty of making such dumb, desperate moves. In the Cards case while this landscape view may not apply to their initial position, after a trade down or in subsequent rounds opportunities will be present. Success here comes from maintaining composure and trusting your board. Much of Bill Belichick’s success comes from his poise during the draft.

Another thing that helps is knowing your opponent. Every draft sees players drop. If a GM can correctly judge who covets that player, he may buy himself an extra pick. Starting a false rumor that the team behind his pick wants the dropping player can induce a move by another team. Many of you would be amazed at the chatter GMs must filter to function at the draft. This is especially true if the player drops for character concerns. Some teams are not above starting false rumors about a player to cause him to drop. I’ve heard Randy Moss was the victim of such a campaign. There were valid character issues, but also tons of false stuff was floating around the draft.

Additionally it’s literally possible to have too many picks. A team can only integrate so many rookies in a single season. Some GMs prefer to consolidate picks in hope of getting a move impactful player. Conversely a team may have more holes than picks and feel compelled to make moves to fill those holes. To many the latter would seem to be the Cards’ situation. They face the age old conundrum of taking a potential Pro Bowl player or trading the pick to resolve 2 needs.


In terms of this draft the Cards get a bad break in that there is no stand out QB. There are several teams that may well take a QB in round one but do any of them have a specific choice in mind that they would be willing to pay up to get. I have Drew Lock atop my list. Certainly none of the choices IMO would justify paying a significant price. Things are quite different when you look at impact players. If the Cards end up with the top pick would they trade out to a team wanting Bosa. Both Oakland & SF need edge rushers. After losing Mack, Gruden might be motivated to give up the third pick and the 26th for pick number 1.

If you like fantasies, the Cards could trade down again from the third slot to one of the QB desiring teams and potentially grab a second round pick and another late pick. A team like Jax could take that deal. The Cards could get the OT they need at 7 with little danger of being shut out.

Anyway my point is while this is not an ideal trade down draft, it’s still offers a chance of significant movement. If well played the Cards could fill several holes with high percentage choices. Given their major free agent dollars they could conceivably contend for the playoffs next year and still have a very affordable, long-term squad.
 

Timm Rosenbach

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If this team had competent management, I would consider a trade down. If no changes are made in the FO, and the Cards have the top pick: Bosa. May have injury questions and not have measurable off the charts that will wow anyone, but will be reliable when healthy
 

Timm Rosenbach

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I’m only in favor in trading down if Bosa, Quinnen, & Oliver are off the board.


Which isn’t going to happen.

With either a new head coach or an incompetent one, we weed a versatile player who is flexible and has a great pedigree of solid coaching. It’s gotta be Bosa if Cards draft one. Can also play in different schemes
 

SoCal Cardfan

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Bosa looks great on paper, but I've seen this team pay far too many "great players" to watch the game in street clothes.

Surely with a top 3 pick...There is a player worthy.. who doesn't have "High injury risk" tattooed on his forehead?
 

Timm Rosenbach

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Bosa looks great on paper, but I've seen this team pay far too many "great players" to watch the game in street clothes.

Surely with a top 3 pick...There is a player worthy.. who doesn't have "High injury risk" tattooed on his forehead?

There is. It’s Ed Oliver. But he has some warning signs that may not be able to be fixed by a “young” coaching staff
 

SoCal Cardfan

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There is. It’s Ed Oliver. But he has some warning signs that may not be able to be fixed by a “young” coaching staff


I don't think our current coaching staff could fix anything...even if they aged 30 years overnight...Which some of them probably have. :p
 

TheCardFan

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I’m only in favor in trading down if Bosa, Quinnen, & Oliver are off the board.


Which isn’t going to happen.

Agreed.

But...would you trade the #1 pick to move down to #3 (Raiders) and still get Quinnen or Oliver plus another first round pick?

How high would you take Greedy Williams?
 

DVontel

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Agreed.

But...would you trade the #1 pick to move down to #3 (Raiders) and still get Quinnen or Oliver plus another first round pick?

How high would you take Greedy Williams?
Yea, but I doubt Gruden is THAT stupid.

In the 15-20 range. I like Byron Murphy more than Greedy.
 

football karma

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I feel like at this time last year, the take on QBs was...… there is no clear cut no. 1 overall guy but a variety of first round choices. Im pretty sure Baker Mayfield wasn't even consensus first round at this point last year

given the rookie salary scale -- I think making sure you get your first round QB is a priority, and I suspect teams will be willing to trade up to get a Drew Lock or a Justin Hebert -- even if they have them rated as a mid 1st round prospect. Its a question of how much

Jax is (today) sitting at 5. Maybe you don't get a 2020 #1, but their 2019 2nd and a later round pick to move down to 5. I do that deal absent anything better.
 

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Tried a trade down mock draft at www.first-pick.com today with the following results:

Round 1 Pick 8 (BUF): Williams, Jonah, OT, Alabama (A)
Round 2 Pick 4: Fant, Noah, TE, Iowa (A-)
Round 2 Pick 6 (ATL): Jones, DreMont, DT, Ohio State (A)
Round 2 Pick 26 (N.E.): Burns, Brian, DE, Florida State (A+)
Round 2 Pick 29 (N.E.): Metcalf, DK, WR, Mississippi (A)
Round 3 Pick 4: Wilson, Caleb, TE, UCLA (A-)
Round 4 Pick 4: Smith, Cameron, ILB, Southern California (A+)
Round 5 Pick 4: Greenlaw, Dre, OLB, Arkansas (A+)
Round 6 Pick 4: Jordan, Michael, OG, Ohio State (B)
Round 7 Pick 4: Langley, Isaiah, CB, Southern California (A+)
Never to early for a mock draft as a Cardinals fan :(
 

Shaggy

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If this team had competent management, I would consider a trade down. If no changes are made in the FO, and the Cards have the top pick: Bosa. May have injury questions and not have measurable off the charts that will wow anyone, but will be reliable when healthy

When healthy? Pick him up 2nd or 3rd pick and he is injured most of the time would be a horrible situation.
 

overseascardfan

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Looking at this year's free agent class, the best players are on the defensive side. There are a lot of good DL, LB and CB's set to hit UFA. What the FA class doesn't have are OL or WR. I would focus on the defense in FA, maybe get your #2 CB, 3 DL and a couple of LB's. Draft focus on WR's & OL, preferably from Power 5 conferences with extensive bodies or work, no small school gems or one year wonders.
 

Timm Rosenbach

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When healthy? Pick him up 2nd or 3rd pick and he is injured most of the time would be a horrible situation.

I think the Chargers are happy with their Joey Bosa selection. Even though he has has some injury issues. Nick Bosa is strikingly similar.
 

Veer

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If we are still guaranteed a blue chip defensive prospect, we should trade down all day long. Too many needs at all levels of this defense, regardless of scheme. Getting an additional 1st or 2nd would serve this roster so well, particularly OL.

However, if there are only 4 or 5 players deemed blue chip worthy, we should stay put.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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If we are still guaranteed a blue chip defensive prospect, we should trade down all day long. Too many needs at all levels of this defense, regardless of scheme. Getting an additional 1st or 2nd would serve this roster so well, particularly OL.

However, if there are only 4 or 5 players deemed blue chip worthy, we should stay put.
To me, there are many more concerns on the offensive side of the ball. There's an unproven QB, an injured rookie WR, and an unmotivated RB on that side of the ball and that's about it.

The Cards biggest concerns are ILB and interior OL, two positions that don't often get addressed at the top of the draft. Offensively, they also need playmakers but no WR is worthy of a top 5 pick this year.
 

Krangodnzr

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To me, there are many more concerns on the offensive side of the ball. There's an unproven QB, an injured rookie WR, and an unmotivated RB on that side of the ball and that's about it.

The Cards biggest concerns are ILB and interior OL, two positions that don't often get addressed at the top of the draft. Offensively, they also need playmakers but no WR is worthy of a top 5 pick this year.

Honestly, I'd try to trade down a few spots and take White. He is that sideline to sideline LB that this team needs. Or I would trade down to the middle of round one and grab a receiver.
 

DVontel

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Honestly, I'd try to trade down a few spots and take White. He is that sideline to sideline LB that this team needs. Or I would trade down to the middle of round one and grab a receiver.
Trading down sounds good in theory, but it is rarely executed.

Honestly don’t remember the last time the trading back team actually won their deal over the trading up team.
 

TheCardFan

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Trading down sounds good in theory, but it is rarely executed.

Honestly don’t remember the last time the trading back team actually won their deal over the trading up team.

The last time the Cardinals were picking this high...we traded the #2 pick to SD for the #3 pick. We got another 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick, and 2 players.

They selected Ryan Leaf and we got Andre Wadsworth, Corey Chavous, and David Boston plus the 2 current players (forgot their names).

Side note - we got the #2 overall pick that year (highest draft slot ever) and missed Peyton Manning by 1 pick. We had Jake Plummer, so we would probably have traded the pick anyway and it would go down in Cardinal lore along with Levi Brown vs Adrian Peterson.
 

Ronin

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I am not sure I want the Cardinals to trade.

one name to keep an eye on is Greedy Williams. I think he is going to be a top 5 pick.

Yeah I know I am really going on a limb with that guess on Greedy Williams.:cool:o_O
 

wa52lz

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The last time the Cardinals were picking this high...we traded the #2 pick to SD for the #3 pick. We got another 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick, and 2 players.

They selected Ryan Leaf and we got Andre Wadsworth, Corey Chavous, and David Boston plus the 2 current players (forgot their names).

Side note - we got the #2 overall pick that year (highest draft slot ever) and missed Peyton Manning by 1 pick. We had Jake Plummer, so we would probably have traded the pick anyway and it would go down in Cardinal lore along with Levi Brown vs Adrian Peterson.
Eric Metcalf and Patrick Sapp I believe
 

MaoTosiFanClub

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The last time the Cardinals were picking this high...we traded the #2 pick to SD for the #3 pick. We got another 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick, and 2 players.

They selected Ryan Leaf and we got Andre Wadsworth, Corey Chavous, and David Boston plus the 2 current players (forgot their names).

Side note - we got the #2 overall pick that year (highest draft slot ever) and missed Peyton Manning by 1 pick. We had Jake Plummer, so we would probably have traded the pick anyway and it would go down in Cardinal lore along with Levi Brown vs Adrian Peterson.
If it makes ya feel better zero chance Peyton would have shown up.
 

football karma

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Only if we can get Johnson and Pace.

some fun history trivia there: a very defensive Rod Graves claimed that even had they stayed put, Suggs wasn't the pick, but Jonathan Sullivan, a DT out of Georgia

a trainwreck no matter how you cut it
 

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