The Case for Taking Simpson Third

[Vacard]

The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?

Cam went 14-0 at Auburn. We dont count those community college starts

 

[Vacard]

You made your own point.

Warner didn't go straight to NFL - got cut by Packers.
He then had 50 starts in Arena league and NFL Europe

The point is - there are zero QB's that have been successful in the NFL with less than 15 starts before the NFL.
Do we think the Cardinals are the team to break that record?

Cam

 

[PJ1]

No case in my opinion. Don’t want him at all.

 

[HairZach]

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[TheCardFan]

Cam went 14-0 at Auburn. We dont count those community college starts

Of course you count them - he started is career at Florida (edited), then Blinn JC, and then Auburn.

26 college starts.

The point is experience starting games before you get to the NFL.

 

[Harry]

Cam went 14-0 at Auburn. We dont count those community college starts

Why? It’s Junior College. These places have all the kids who typically can’t meet the admissions standard of the big schools. Some of these players are actually better than the ones in the traditional college settings. The ones in the playoffs are especially talented. It’s certainly as good as the lower college divisions and guys like Flacco came from there. Is it as valuable as sitting on the bench in Division 1, like Simpson did? It’s maybe better. So I think it’s not that straight forward.

 

[Garthshort]

I certainly don't want Simpson, but Harry makes a great case explaining why QB's are over drafted. JMO.

 

[azgreg]

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[Harry]

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He knows that and turned it down

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

If Malik Willis is off the board, and he is there, this is our pick.

 

[Sparky16]

I'm almost set on a defender or lineman with our first pick...then trading back into the first from 34 to get a QB...rather it's Simpson, Beck, Allar..whatever...that 5th year is especially valuable for quarterbacks.

But if we do that it's tough to decide rather to stick at 3 or try and trade back to around ten....
Almost feels like trade back...then use the gained compensation to trade up from 34...

Allar is trash

 

[Tacticool Nerd]

Sorry Harry. But I from my own non expert experience. But Simpson is not a first round QB.

 

[oaken1]

Allar is trash

Nope. He has been in a trash situation. But he has the talent...and aside from talent even the best coaches in the world cannot coach 6'5 and 230

 

[Redsz]

The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?

Hi Harry, hes been compared to Baker Mayfield. Is that an accurate comparison?

 

[Stout]

James Franklin is trash

FTFY

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Allar is trash

Nope. He has been in a trash situation. But he has the talent...and aside from talent even the best coaches in the world cannot coach 6'5 and 230

FTFY

Sparky has it right.

 

[Stout]

Sparky has it wrong.

FTFY

 

[WakeForestCard]

Of course you count them - he started at Florida, then Blinn JC, and then Auburn.

26 college starts.

The point is experience starting games before you get to the NFL.

Cam Newton started over Tebow at Florida?

 

[mjb21aztd]

I would take simpson over love from nd

Least he is decent size for a qb and good arm

 

[TheCardFan]

Cam Newton started over Tebow at Florida?

Good catch - I meant to say he started his college career at Florida/then he transferred.

 

[Harry]

Hi Harry, hes been compared to Baker Mayfield. Is that an accurate comparison?

Not really. Mayfield is a proven running threat. He also seems to throw better when rolling out. I think Simpson may read defenses better. They are about the same in the pocket. Remember Mayfield struggled for a while before he adapted his game to the NFL. Simpson may need even more polishing.