The Case for Taking Simpson Third

Harry

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The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?
 

GeorgiaCard88

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I’d be down to trade back into the first round super late to take a flyer on Simpson similar to the giants last year with dart.

Way too expensive for #3 though. This puts us in a QB quandary - but taking Simpson so early and losing on a blue chipper seems like a huge mistake
 

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I like Simpson but not at #3. What also hurt Simpson was the fact that the Alabama team had no decent runners this year. It was all on him. Plus the OL broke down and he was constantly being pressured. I think with the right NFL team, he could do well. Additionally he needs to sit for a while and not be a day one starter.
 
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oaken1

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The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?
Kurt Warner.
But then he added a couple years of arena ball to the skillset.
 

oaken1

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I'm almost set on a defender or lineman with our first pick...then trading back into the first from 34 to get a QB...rather it's Simpson, Beck, Allar..whatever...that 5th year is especially valuable for quarterbacks.

But if we do that it's tough to decide rather to stick at 3 or try and trade back to around ten....
Almost feels like trade back...then use the gained compensation to trade up from 34...
 

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The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?
Sounds like a case against taking Simpson #3. Which is the right stance.
 

football karma

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the pragmatic problem with Simpson (and Dante Moore to a lesser extent):

given their inexperience, they must sit for their first year. They then compete for playing time / starting in year 2. 2027 becomes the real evaluation year.

IF you take either at 3 this year, it probably puts you out of the QB market next year-- when (supposedly) the QB market will be better

It says you wont be competing for anything meaningful until year 3. that feels like a lifetime away

its the thing that is most depressing about being a Cardinal fan right now.
 

football karma

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and FWIW: my biggest issue with the cost of taking Simpson is less about the draft pick and more about the opportunity cost.

if you take him at #3 (or top 10 after a trade down) -- he is the guy for probably 3 seasons
 

TheCardFan

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Kurt Warner.
But then he added a couple years of arena ball to the skillset.

You made your own point.

Warner didn't go straight to NFL - got cut by Packers.
He then had 50 starts in Arena league and NFL Europe

The point is - there are zero QB's that have been successful in the NFL with less than 15 starts before the NFL.
Do we think the Cardinals are the team to break that record? :biglaugh:
 
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Harry

Harry

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the pragmatic problem with Simpson (and Dante Moore to a lesser extent):

given their inexperience, they must sit for their first year. They then compete for playing time / starting in year 2. 2027 becomes the real evaluation year.

IF you take either at 3 this year, it probably puts you out of the QB market next year-- when (supposedly) the QB market will be better

It says you wont be competing for anything meaningful until year 3. that feels like a lifetime away

its the thing that is most depressing about being a Cardinal fan right now.
You also have to consider with contracts virtually fixed now the slot charge ties up a bunch of cap money, especially if he fails.
 

BooksOrangePlanet

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if we don't want simpson with the 3rd pick than we don't want simpson period - he's still the same qb later in the 1st round or 2nd round - he should have stayed another year but next year's qb crop is supposed to have a few bad asses - im still mendoza or bust
 

PACardsFan

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if we don't want simpson with the 3rd pick than we don't want simpson period - he's still the same qb later in the 1st round or 2nd round - he should have stayed another year but next year's qb crop is supposed to have a few bad asses - im still mendoza or bust
Agree. Outside of Mendoza, there’s not a QB in this draft that I would take in the first 3-4 rounds.
 

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Cam Newton started 14 games at Auburn but played a year at Blynn college in Texas where he won a JUCO championship. Similar path that Trininad Chambliss took to Ole Miss. Anyway it’s fair to point out Simpson’s lack of starts although he has taken over 1,000 snaps in his college career if you include two years of backing up Jalen Milroe. As already stated not beating out Milroe is definitely a red flag. Both guys were behind Bryce Young their first years at Bama so age and class wasn’t an advantage for either guy. Milroe beat him straight up under both Saban and DeBoer.

To take Simpson #3 you’d have to develop him perfectly which I don’t think is possible without someone like McCarthy or McDaniels and to a lesser extent Kubiak. Kubiak called played for Darnold this year and was the 49’ers passing game coordinator during Brock Purdy’s MVP caliber season 23’. Even then you’d be pairing him with a rookie HC.

I’m interested to see his combine measurements and testing b/c like Harry said he’s not a big as you think.
 

slanidrac16

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The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?
Thank you for the great write up.
No you don’t take him at 3. You take what seems to be the BPA regardless of position.
My fear is Monti might play the smartest guy in the room and take Simpson. What he should do is trade back up into the first round if he feels Simpson COULD be the guy.
 

BooksOrangePlanet

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Cam Newton started 14 games at Auburn but played a year at Blynn college in Texas where he won a JUCO championship. Similar path that Trininad Chambliss took to Ole Miss. Anyway it’s fair to point out Simpson’s lack of starts although he has taken over 1,000 snaps in his college career if you include two years of backing up Jalen Milroe. As already stated not beating out Milroe is definitely a red flag. Both guys were behind Bryce Young their first years at Bama so age and class wasn’t an advantage for either guy. Milroe beat him straight up under both Saban and DeBoer.

To take Simpson #3 you’d have to develop him perfectly which I don’t think is possible without someone like McCarthy or McDaniels and to a lesser extent Kubiak. Kubiak called played for Darnold this year and was the 49’ers passing game coordinator during Brock Purdy’s MVP caliber season 23’. Even then you’d be pairing him with a rookie HC.

I’m interested to see his combine measurements and testing b/c like Harry said he’s not a big as you think.
i want kubiak
 

PACardsFan

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Thank you for the great write up.
No you don’t take him at 3. You take what seems to be the BPA regardless of position.
My fear is Monti might play the smartest guy in the room and take Simpson. What he should do is trade back up into the first round if he feels Simpson COULD be the guy.
There’s almost nothing about Simpson that makes me think MO would think he’s the guy. And no way do you waste draft capital that early on a guy who has so many question marks. Maybe if he’s still there in the 3rd. No sooner than that.
 

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If he had set CFB on fire in his 1 year...you could make an argument to take him. He has bust written all over high with an insanely high risk probability. I'd take him in the 4th tho.
 

oaken1

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There’s almost nothing about Simpson that makes me think MO would think he’s the guy. And no way do you waste draft capital that early on a guy who has so many question marks. Maybe if he’s still there in the 3rd. No sooner than that.
I would argue that any quarterback you feel is worth a day 2 pick...is worth trading up to 28 or so to get.
That fifth year of financial control is very valuable for QB's
not so much for guards or MLB's.... but for a quarterback it can mean $50mil.....and for a QB you are developing you need time to know if he is gonna work out before you have to commit to signing him or dumping him.
most times it will be a waste.... but that one time it results in the light coming on for the player before you have to make the decision it is all worth it.
worst case scenario you lose out on 25mil in guaranteed money and have to cut a guy that didnt work out....and maybe miss out on a decent OT or LB due to the pick
 

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I'm almost set on a defender or lineman with our first pick...then trading back into the first from 34 to get a QB...rather it's Simpson, Beck, Allar..whatever...that 5th year is especially valuable for quarterbacks.

But if we do that it's tough to decide rather to stick at 3 or try and trade back to around ten....
Almost feels like trade back...then use the gained compensation to trade up from 34...
Ime with ya trade back inside top 10 get Love the Rb use the extra pick on Oline if its early enough or 2nd round on one the trade up in 2nd grab Nussmeir type etc definitly free agency in O/D line
 

ajcardfan

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The Simpson story is almost the exact opposite of the Bailey story. Simpson was great for the first two thirds of the season and marginal for the last third. There are 2 schools of thought on why. Some believe the defenses just caught up to him. Others believe the accumulation of injuries lowered his capabilities.

Simpson is the son of a college coach and he was well trained. His throwing mechanics are nearly textbook. He can read defenses, anticipate blitzes, use hot reads and identify coverage advantages. He has a quick release, while exhibiting excellent ball placement. This has provided receivers with an exceptional opportunity for YAC. Simpson does a good job of moving safeties with his eyes. He’s impressive when maneuvering in the pocket; reminiscent of Drew Brees. This enables him to avoid quick sacks and allowing receivers to get greater separation. It also gives him better throwing lanes. When he faces tight coverage he has good touch to drop the ball into layered defenses. The first 9 games of the season he was almost unstoppable.

The Oklahoma game seemed to change everything. They decided to treat Simpson like an NFL QB and began disguising their defenses; often shifting at the last moment. It disoriented Simpson who had his worst game to date. This trend continued for the remainder of Alabama’s games. Simpson never looked like he did in those first 9 games. His completion percentage dropped from 70 to 57. In fairness to Simpson we’ve subsequently learned he was dealing with a number of health issues that may have somewhat impaired his performance. That said with a 17 NFL game schedule, no QB is likely to be fully healthy for the last third of the season. Playing hurt effectively is critical.

There are other concerns about Simpson. He does not have an extremely strong arm. On throws under 30 yards, he’s very accurate. On longer throws he’s erratic. He showed he can get the ball there, but not consistently on target. Occasionally he locks on receivers, telegraphing his target.

He also has a turnover issue not only with interceptions, but he fumbled in 5 straight games. Some of the interceptions come from timing. He often waits until the receiver comes out of his break to throw the ball giving the defender a chance to jump the route. He recognizes rush gaps and can escape, but not with great acceleration. He is especially troubled by mid line rushers. In fairness many QBs are.

I’ve saved the biggest concern for last. I cannot find a successful NFL QB with 15 or fewer college starts. If you consider Murray successful, he only stated 17. Through the first 9 games Simpson inspired a number evaluators to believe that he could change the paradigm. Once teams started to disguise defenses many reversed their opinion. Simpson could surprise evaluators and be the first one of this group to succeed. However, do you want to risk pick number 3 to find out, especially without a great QB guru in place?

No. Just no.
 

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Matt Cassel did pretty well considering he was a backup his whole college career. He wasn't great but he did pretty well considering. I Don't thing he started a single game in college.
 

SoonerLou

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This would be like taking Mac Jones at 3.

Now TBF if Mac Jones went to the 49ers year one he'd be pretty good imo.
I have a feeling Ty would be good enough year 1 as well.

Long term Im just not sure its worth it unless they hire a rockstar HC.
 

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