Round One Conundrums

dreamcastrocks

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Chris Jones, Fletcher Cox, or Justin Madubuike for DT help for starters. I'd also love to see Brian Burns or Danielle Hunter at Edge. Kendall Fuller would instantly make the CB room better.

We have the money to sign at least two of them if we wanted.
 

kerouac9

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Chris Jones, Fletcher Cox, or Justin Madubuike for DT help for starters. I'd also love to see Brian Burns or Danielle Hunter at Edge. Kendall Fuller would instantly make the CB room better.

We have the money to sign at least two of them if we wanted.
I don't expect the crossed out guys to be available or available to us.

Danielle Hunter and Kendall Fuller seem like sugar rush candidates unlikely to be core players on the next Arizona Cardinals playoff team, but they're likely to get top-of-market deals from one of the many teams with more cap space than us.

Fletcher Cox is whatever to me.
 

dreamcastrocks

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I don't expect the crossed out guys to be available or available to us.

Danielle Hunter and Kendall Fuller seem like sugar rush candidates unlikely to be core players on the next Arizona Cardinals playoff team, but they're likely to get top-of-market deals from one of the many teams with more cap space than us.

Fletcher Cox is whatever to me.
You're right. Nobody on the free agent market is worth signing.

...and yet, all last season, you were pining that the Cards didn't sign anyone of notice. The irony is not lost on me.
 

kerouac9

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You're right. Nobody on the free agent market is worth signing.

...and yet, all last season, you were pining that the Cards didn't sign anyone of notice. The irony is not lost on me.
Your assertion is that there are good players that we can acquire is what I wanted to discuss. If you don't like people discussing your assertions, why are you on a message board.

Having such an attitude is unbecoming in a moderator. I'm not going to engage in a flame war with one.
 

oaken1

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Chris Jones, Fletcher Cox, or Justin Madubuike for DT help for starters. I'd also love to see Brian Burns or Danielle Hunter at Edge. Kendall Fuller would instantly make the CB room better.

We have the money to sign at least two of them if we wanted.
christian Wilkins..... 5/107mil
 

Krangodnzr

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Do you mean LTs or all OTs? Cause, honestly, there are plenty of good starting tackles drafted outside the first round. From current playoff teams:

BAL RT Morgan Mosses - 3rd round
BAL LT Ronnie Stanley - 1st round (6th overall)
HOU LT Laremy Tunsil - 1st round
HOU RT George Fant - UDFA
KAN LT Donovan Smith - 2nd round
KAN RT Jawaan Taylor - 2nd round
BUF RT Spencer Brown - 3rd round
BUF LT Dion Dawkins - 2nd round

TAM LT Tristan Wirfs - 1st round
TAM RT Luke Goedeke - 2nd round
DET RT Penei Sewell - 1st round (7th overall)
DET LT Taylor Decker - 1st round
GB RT Zach Tom - 4th round
GB LT Rasheed Walker - 7th round

SFO LT Trent Williams - 1st round (4th overall)
SFO RT Colton McKivitz - 5th round



Who?
How many of those non-first round guys are "really good"?
 

Solar7

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No way would I use a 3rd round pick on a RB. I say that knowing I usually agree with oaken.
Do you mean ever? Or just this year because of Conner and a lesser RB draft class? Reminder, Conner is close to 30 and right near the standard cliff for RBs.

The numbers show that the vast majority of starting RBs in the league were drafted in the 3rd round or higher. At the start of 2023 only 8 backs in a starting role were from a later round or undrafted. That number projects to be less this year since Ekeler may not have a starting role.
 
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Solar7

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I don't expect the crossed out guys to be available or available to us.

Danielle Hunter and Kendall Fuller seem like sugar rush candidates unlikely to be core players on the next Arizona Cardinals playoff team, but they're likely to get top-of-market deals from one of the many teams with more cap space than us.

Fletcher Cox is whatever to me.
Fletcher Cox is going to retire so I guess cross out everyone.

How many of those non-first round guys are "really good"?
Most of those listed are pretty solid guys IMO.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Your assertion is that there are good players that we can acquire is what I wanted to discuss. If you don't like people discussing your assertions, why are you on a message board.

Having such an attitude is unbecoming in a moderator. I'm not going to engage in a flame war with one.
Okay.
 

Garthshort

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Do you mean ever? Or just this year because of Conner and a lesser RB draft class? Reminder, Conner is close to 30 and right near the standard cliff for RBs.

The numbers show that the vast majority of starting RBs in the league were drafted in the 3rd round or higher. At the start of 2023 only 8 backs in a starting role were from a later round or undrafted. That number projects to be less this year since Ekeler may not have a starting role.
I think our three man RB group is VG. If we do pick a RB I hope it's a 5th or later round. Too many defensive needs to use a third round for a RB. JMO.
 

cardpa

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Do you mean ever? Or just this year because of Conner and a lesser RB draft class? Reminder, Conner is close to 30 and right near the standard cliff for RBs.

The numbers show that the vast majority of starting RBs in the league were drafted in the 3rd round or higher. At the start of 2023 only 8 backs in a starting role were from a later round or undrafted. That number projects to be less this year since Ekeler may not have a starting role.
I suspect the coaching staff thinks there is a no need in the RB room. I could see them going with Connor, Carter, and Demercado as the RBs and if they do decide to draft one it won't be until the 5th round or later especially should a really decent RB fall into the 5th round or later.

We all know Connor is going to miss a number of games and I think they believe that Carter can fill in short term along with Demercado and an as yet unknown 4th RB. I could even see them picking up a older cut RB after camp like Mack last season.
 

Krangodnzr

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The better measure is surely getting an 83 PFF grade on a 5-12 team. Thats where the true dogs play.
I know five or six of those guys are pretty blah players, if not outright bad.

The Bills have wanted to replace Spencer Brown for awhile now. Jawann Taylor has been dreadful for most of the season. Rasheed Walker is pure replacement level. George Fant is the definition of journeyman, back up swing tackle. McKivitz has given up a ton of sacks and pressures.

So yeah, most of the non-first round guys you listed aren't good at all.
 

kerouac9

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I know five or six of those guys are pretty blah players, if not outright bad.

The Bills have wanted to replace Spencer Brown for awhile now. Jawann Taylor has been dreadful for most of the season. Rasheed Walker is pure replacement level. George Fant is the definition of journeyman, back up swing tackle. McKivitz has given up a ton of sacks and pressures.

So yeah, most of the non-first round guys you listed aren't good at all.
It's amazing their teams have advanced to the divisional rounds of the playoffs with such bad players at the second-most important offensive line position.
 

Solar7

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I suspect the coaching staff thinks there is a no need in the RB room. I could see them going with Connor, Carter, and Demercado as the RBs and if they do decide to draft one it won't be until the 5th round or later especially should a really decent RB fall into the 5th round or later.

We all know Connor is going to miss a number of games and I think they believe that Carter can fill in short term along with Demercado and an as yet unknown 4th RB. I could even see them picking up a older cut RB after camp like Mack last season.
I think our three man RB group is VG. If we do pick a RB I hope it's a 5th or later round. Too many defensive needs to use a third round for a RB. JMO.
Conner finished strong but if this team thinks it's set at running back, oof.
 

Solar7

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lol with all the holes we have & how good the running game looked, you wanna waste our 2nd round pick on a rather mediocre RB class?
No, no. But, we have three third rounders and I think we'd be silly to completely dismiss the concept of drafting say Brooks, Benson, or Corum if they were there. Conner is getting very long in the tooth and probably doesn't have much left. Carter is pretty meh and would be a non-factor if Conner misses time (which he almost always does). Demercado is a JAG.

I'm not saying we HAVE to acquire a running back in the draft, just that I think it should be on the table. And I'm still not sure if @Garthshort is philosophically against drafting a running back in the top three rounds or if it's just his take on what our situation is this year.

Lets see...we have a good starter, an ok backup, and a young guy that showed some promise. What else are you looking for at the position?
I still don't think Conner is very good. He's pretty pedestrian. Misses a lot of time. I think we're in the back half of RB rooms right now, depending on what shifts are made around the league.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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This has been cited numerous times over the years on actual analysis of drafts.


OT has amongst the lowest bust rates of any position. While you always want to find a star, it's still better to find a decent player than to find a bust. Busting on first round picks can really set a team back as we have all seen.

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@Solar7 posted a study a few years back that demonstrated that the best round to take a WR was round two. Round two WRs had a lower bust rate than round one.
This is weird. You say tackles have the lowest bust rate but the chart you show clearly indicates center and safety as lower.

Also, I’m unsure this is the line of reasoning to follow. If you read the article, using this logic in terms of what to draft in the first round it would direct us to draft (in order) . . .

Safety
Center
Tightend
Linebacker
Guard

. . . as they have the greatest difference between pro bowler and bust. That goes against all convention wisdom in terms of using valuable draft capital on low value positions.
 
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