Report: Suns engaged in trade talks for Dallas PG Dennis Smith Jr

[Hoop Head]

Is his ceiling Brandon Knight?

That's probably pretty accurate based on what I've seen and heard about him. Outside of a trade involving the Bucks picks and Bender or Okobo, I wouldn't do it. I'd be hesitant to trade Melton for him because at least Melton is a good defender who plays within the team concept of the offense and I don't think Smith Jr does that. He's a score first PG similar to Knight and Bledsoe but he doesn't have Bledsoe's explosiveness or defense but he's actually really comparable to Knight. He's as fragile as either of them also, having already had extensive knee surgery at his age. He doesn't make those around him better and despite playing more off the ball with Doncic this year his scoring has actually gone down because he's not a very good shooter either. He shot 39% last season and this year he's shooting 44% but he's also a terrible FT shooter, having shot below 70% in both seasons, 69% in his rookie year and 68% this year. He averaged 2.8 FT attempts a game last year and this year he's at 2.6, which isn't a lot but it's also enough to know that his FT% isn't a fluke from limited attempts.

 

[Cheesebeef]

man, if we give anything up more than the Bucks pick and one of the young PGs, i am going to pissed.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Bleep this... I don't think there is anything the Suns have that I would give up for Smith... his ceiling is Eric Bledsoe without the defense, or as someone else, mentioned, Brandon Knight, with slightly better knees.

Maybe, MAYBE, the Milwaukee pick and Melton... maybe... that's as high as I would go. Smith is not the answer to the Suns PG problem, and likely ends up being more of a minus than a plus, on the whole.

I wouldn't even include Melton. I don't know if he will ever be able to run a team (hope he will) but at worst, he'll be a defensive dynamo off the bench.

 

[Hoop Head]

Apparently the Mavericks want to include Wesley Matthews in a deal that involves Dennis Smith Jr also, which complicates things even more. Matthews is due $18.6 million this year but he's an expiring contract as well. Since he's actually expiring that might work if we traded Okobo, Ryan Anderson, and the Bucks pick for Matthews and Smith, with Matthews being bought out or flipped in another deal, which would allow us more cap space this next summer because we wouldn't have to waive and stretch Anderson. Still not that excited about DSJ.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...p-efforts-deal-pg-dennis-smith-jr-sources-say

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Jackson is our 4th best wing. Warren, Oubre and Bridges are all better.

Let's be real I like Jackson but good lord has he been a disappointment and he was the player I wanted most in that draft.

This isn't true. Warren is our worst wing outside of scoring. Right now the ranking is Oubre, Jackson, Bridges, Warren

And Warren has the least upside of them.

 

[Proximo]

This isn't true. Warren is our worst wing outside of scoring. Right now the ranking is Oubre, Jackson, Bridges, Warren

And Warren has the least upside of them.

That is just your opinion.

It depends on what you value - potential or current production - then you have to take into account their contract situations.

In terms of actual value for the buck with their current production / contract situation - the ranking is 1. Bridges, 2. Warren, 3. Oubre, 4. Jackson

But if we base it off potential its 1. Jackson 2. Bridges 3. Oubre 4. Warren IMO.

I really don't think Oubre or Warren are going to improve much. Jackson has the highest ceiling - but he also has the lowest floor. Bottom line I think it's too early to make a decision

 

[BC867]

Bleep this... I don't think there is anything the Suns have that I would give up for Smith... his ceiling is Eric Bledsoe without the defense, or as someone else, mentioned, Brandon Knight, with slightly better knees.

Maybe, MAYBE, the Milwaukee pick and Melton... maybe... that's as high as I would go. Smith is not the answer to the Suns PG problem, and likely ends up being more of a minus than a plus, on the whole.

If Smith is not the answer to the Suns Point Guard problem who will likely end up being more of a minus than a plus, then why would we end our search for a facilitating Point Guard IF they accept Melton and the Milwaukee pick? Even if they accepted a large box of popcorn, why bring someone on board who is going to end our search for what we need?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

That is just your opinion.

It depends on what you value - potential or current production - then you have to take into account their contract situations.

In terms of actual value for the buck with their current production / contract situation - the ranking is 1. Bridges, 2. Warren, 3. Oubre, 4. Jackson

But if we base it off potential its 1. Jackson 2. Bridges 3. Oubre 4. Warren IMO.

I really don't think Oubre or Warren are going to improve much. Jackson has the highest ceiling - but he also has the lowest floor. Bottom line I think it's too early to make a decision

Right now I just going with what the numbers show me. I don't believe we can have two of the poorest defenders in the league both starting / getting major minutes and have any sort of success.


Warren would be fine if he wasn't playing with Booker.

 

[SirStefan32]

Warren is not one of the poorest defenders in the league. I do agree that good defenders fit better. Proximo is right that there are different factors to think about, such as potential, current production, salaries, and I would add the overall fit for the team to that list. My list is Bridges, Oubre, Warren, Jackson. I value defense, and I tend to be cautious of "potential".

 

[JCSunsfan]

Why would we give them Jackson (4) AND a pick for Smith (9). Makes NO sense. Plus, it's not mentioned in the article.

Well. Where they were picked means absolutely nothing. It has no bearing on their present value.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Well. Where they were picked means absolutely nothing. It has no bearing on their present value.

Agreed but when you're talking about players that have yet to reach their potential, it does seem to come into consideration.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I would not give up Jackson and a pick, but DSJr is being under valued on this board. He is a good great scorer, a very good defender. He has some excellent passing skills. There are plenty of vids of him making some amazing pass plays. I don't think he has enough NBA experience to know whether he can play within a team concept or not.

His skill set is very similar to DeAaron Fox.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...is+Smith+Jr.&player_id2=smithde03&idx=players

 

[AzStevenCal]

His skill set is very similar to DeAaron Fox.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=De'Aaron+Fox&player_id1_select=De'Aaron+Fox&player_id1=foxde01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id2_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id2=smithde03&idx=players

Okay, but I don't see it. But looking at his stats I found it interesting that his DRtg is 110 and his ORtg is 94 which isn't much different to our rookie, Melton, who has a 110 and 91 rating. Smith has a slight offensive advantage but it comes with a much higher usage rate so I see little gain. I'll stick with Melton who has not had a serious knee injury.

 

[JCSunsfan]

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OK. Wild speculation here. James Jones doesn't want people here who don't want to be here. In negotiations, he asked to speak to Smith or his agent. When JJ asked if he was interested in playing for Phoenix, he got a flat "no." JJ then dropped all negotiations and walked away.

 

[GatorAZ]

Whoa Jude LaCava just went in on Dennis Smith Jr. lol

JLC is still around?

 

[Phrazbit]

I would not give up Jackson and a pick, but DSJr is being under valued on this board. He is a good great scorer, a very good defender. He has some excellent passing skills. There are plenty of vids of him making some amazing pass plays. I don't think he has enough NBA experience to know whether he can play within a team concept or not.

His skill set is very similar to DeAaron Fox.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=De'Aaron+Fox&player_id1_select=De'Aaron+Fox&player_id1=foxde01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id2_select=Dennis+Smith+Jr.&player_id2=smithde03&idx=players

Man... I dunno. I think he has elite athleticism for his size and he is scary in the open court... after that, it's really hard to make an argument that Dennis Smith does anything well. He's a poor shooter, I really don't know where the idea that he is good on D comes from, virtually every defensive stat (metric or otherwise) rates him poorly, his passing stats are bad... highlight videos don't mean much when a dude has low assist totals and a bad ratio. Even as a scorer he is really inefficient.

I think Dallas is trying to unload a stinker of a prospect for value before the league realizes what he is. I certainly wouldn't offer JJ. Okobo and... maybe the Bucks pick... is as high as I would go, and in the end I think we'd regret it, but it's worth taking a flyer on. I don't see how another ball dominating player with poor shooting touch and bad defense does anything for us. I'd be hoping his ability in the open court would give us a transition attack that we're sorely lacking.

 

[slinslin]

Josh Jackson frustrates me to no end but no way I would give him up right now.

He is playing a lot better lately and his long-term potential is clearly there. Needs to get more seasoned and stronger and if he does that it wouldn't even matter much if he does not make big strides as a shooter. He should be effective simply getting to the rim, living at the freethrow line, in the open court and passing.

 

[Proximo]

OK. Wild speculation here. James Jones doesn't want people here who don't want to be here. In negotiations, he asked to speak to Smith or his agent. When JJ asked if he was interested in playing for Phoenix, he got a flat "no." JJ then dropped all negotiations and walked away.

I’ve got another wild speculation. I think Dallas told Woj to make this tweet to try and start a bidding war because the suns and Orlando are the only teams that have shown any interest, but both have offered far less than what Dallas wants.

I think the suns are interested, but they know what Orlando is offering, and it is less than the suns offer. I think they called up Gambo and told him to tweet they had no interest.

This should have the effect of keeping Orlando’s offer the same, and might allow the suns to acquire him very cheaply.

 

[sunsfan88]

OK. Wild speculation here. James Jones doesn't want people here who don't want to be here. In negotiations, he asked to speak to Smith or his agent. When JJ asked if he was interested in playing for Phoenix, he got a flat "no." JJ then dropped all negotiations and walked away.

Eh why wouldn’t DSJ wanna play here considering all of the NBA views the Suns PG position as the most depleted one in the league so he’d almost be guaranteed minutes by default.

 

[slinslin]

The main problem with Smith is that there is no guarantee that he is going to pan out better than Melton or even Okobo.

Smith is a project still.

I like him, his favotire NBA players are actually Chris Paul/Steve Nash from what I remember so he doesn't really have that Marbury/Francis mindset that many people pigeon-hole him into.

I would be willing to do something like

Warren, Bender, Daniels for Smith, Matthews (expiring) which gives us 10M$ additional caproom.

or

Okobo, Bender maybe Milwaukee pick for Smith

but nothing more.

Melton looks kind of promising and we will have more options to get a PG in the summer through the draft (Morant, Garland) or free agency (Irving, Walker, Russell, Rubio...)

 

[Russ Smith]

Man... I dunno. I think he has elite athleticism for his size and he is scary in the open court... after that, it's really hard to make an argument that Dennis Smith does anything well. He's a poor shooter, I really don't know where the idea that he is good on D comes from, virtually every defensive stat (metric or otherwise) rates him poorly, his passing stats are bad... highlight videos don't mean much when a dude has low assist totals and a bad ratio. Even as a scorer he is really inefficient.

I think Dallas is trying to unload a stinker of a prospect for value before the league realizes what he is. I certainly wouldn't offer JJ. Okobo and... maybe the Bucks pick... is as high as I would go, and in the end I think we'd regret it, but it's worth taking a flyer on. I don't see how another ball dominating player with poor shooting touch and bad defense does anything for us. I'd be hoping his ability in the open court would give us a transition attack that we're sorely lacking.

That's my take too. Dallas realizes that with Doncic, they need to move Smith off the ball. The problem is if they do that, it lowers his trade value because everyone else sees he's really an undersized 2 not a 1. He's not horrible but he has to change his approach to the game, there's still time to do it he's still young but right now he's a ball stopper who looks to shoot first, the NBA is going away from isolations, except with Houston and Harden and LA with LeBron, so it's tough to fit a guy like Smith Jr.

 

[sunsfan88]

Okay, but I don't see it. But looking at his stats I found it interesting that his DRtg is 110 and his ORtg is 94 which isn't much different to our rookie, Melton, who has a 110 and 91 rating. Smith has a slight offensive advantage but it comes with a much higher usage rate so I see little gain. I'll stick with Melton who has not had a serious knee injury.

This is the most overlooked factor here. Is DSJ going to actually be better than Melton? I’m not all that certain especially considering DSJ is in his second year and Melton his first.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Warren is not one of the poorest defenders in the league. I do agree that good defenders fit better. Proximo is right that there are different factors to think about, such as potential, current production, salaries, and I would add the overall fit for the team to that list. My list is Bridges, Oubre, Warren, Jackson. I value defense, and I tend to be cautious of "potential".

Defensive Box PM = -1.7 Source: Basketball Reference.com

Defensive Win Shares League Ranking: #337 Source NBA.Com

Defensive Rating 5th from last Source Foxsports.com

 

[Chris_Sanders]

BTW, Booker is worse than Warren at #372 in Defensive Win Shares and 4th from last in Defensive Rating.

They simply need to stop being on the court together. This is why we are getting in these huge first quarter holes.

 

[devilalum]

DSJ has big potential. He’s just a bad fit with Doncic so he’s got to go.


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