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Red Sox Lineup Predicted To Shatter Modest Power Projections originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Home runs have become a popular conversation point around the Boston Red Sox before the 2026 season.
The ZiPS projection system set tepid expectations for Boston's lineups, forecasting no Red Sox hitter to reach 20 home runs. Not everyone shares that pessimism.
Lucy Burdge predicted that several Red Sox players will accomplish that benchmark on NESN's "Boston Has Entered The Chat."
"And I thought, that's stupid already," Burdge said of the ZiPS projection. "But now I'm thinking this team could have five guys hit 20 home runs."
Jarren Duran went from 21 home runs in 2024 to 16 last year, but the outfielder is currently on a power heater. The 29-year-old has hit three home runs in spring training -- including a blast off left-handed ace Chris Sale -- and three more for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.
Burdge can see Duran carrying that momentum into the regular season and delivering 20-plus dingers.
"You see what Jarren Duran is doing?" Burdge said. "You watch what he has done so far in the WBC and in spring training. I was at one game where he hit two home runs, another game where he hit one home run, and that's just the two games I was there."
Five Red Sox hitters hitting 20 homers wouldn't be all that far-fetched.
Willson Contreras has reached that mark in five of the last six full seasons. Wilyer Abreu delivered 22 homers in 115 games last season, and Alex Cora said he wants the Gold Glove right fielder to also play against left-handed pitching this year.
It's a matter of health for Trevor Story, who socked 25 long balls in a bounce-back 2025. Ceddanne Rafaela could untap some more pop after touching them all 16 times last season, and Roman Anthony may surge far beyond 20 if he elevates the ball more.
Burdge went one step further, predicting a Red Sox championship when posting the show clip on social media.
"The Red Sox will have at least five guys hit 20+ home runs and win the World Series."
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