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Projection Model Still Pessimistic About Red Sox's Power Output originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Boston Red Sox should defy an overly negative preseason projection, but maybe not by as much as they'd like.
Before the 2026 season started, the ZiPS projection model didn't forecast a single Red Sox hitter to reach 20 home runs. Willson Contreras and Jarren Duran are already halfway there, entering June with 11 and 10 long balls, respectively.
With nearly two-thirds of the season remaining, ZiPS now anticipates Contreras and Duran to each clear 20 home runs. The rest-of-season projections have each Red Sox veteran touching them all 13 more times.
However, that still means ZiPS doesn't project any Boston hitter to finish with 25 or more home runs. Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, it would be the first time since 2017 that no Red Sox player reached that tally.
Trevor Story was the only Boston player to hit 25 homers last season, but he went deep just three times in 41 games before going on the injured list on May 21. The shortstop would have to go on a considerable power tear upon returning from surgery on a sports hernia.
Wilyer Abreu seemed poised for a power breakout after homering three times in his first six games, but he's notched three more in 51 ensuing games. ZiPS projects him to accrue a dozen more this season.
Ceddanne Rafaela will match last season's career-high 16 home runs if meeting the ZiPs projection for 11 more. Roman Anthony remains sidelined with one home run all season, so he's a long shot to end his first full season with 20.
The Red Sox ended May with 44 team home runs, MLB's second-fewest ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers (40). Yet they also rank fourth with 102 doubles and have climbed to 21st in OPS after scoring nine runs each in back-to-back weekend wins over the Cleveland Guardians.
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