Predictions on how high the DOW goes pre and post election?

[Russ Smith]

I actually just put in sell orders to go more into cash I'll be about 50% cash in one IRA and 60 in the other after they execute tomorrow.

DOW is up over 1000 points in the last year and more to the point 500 points in the last 6 weeks.

I wouldn't be stunned if it stayed up going into the elections but not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised to see DOW 15K next year if Obama is re-elected, for some reason I think a Romney win would not necessarily tank the market but won't take it up as high.

Note, not saying an Obama win would make 15K a rational target just that it's already gone up over 13,500 for not a whole lot of good reasons.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm thinking it goes up over the next year.

Tons of people have their money out of the stock market right now because of the uncertainty with the election this year. Once the election is over, a lot of that uncertainty will be gone IMO. By the middle of next year the lame duck congress will be back to work. Hopefully the budget will be agreed upon by then. If all of that happens then I think people start putting their money back into the market.

 

[Mulli]

Romney knows WAY more about this than I do.

It depends of course which markets you're talking about, which types of commodities and so forth, but my own view is that if we win on November 6th, there will be a great deal of optimism about the future of this country. We'll see capital come back and we'll see—without actually doing anything—we'll actually get a boost in the economy. If the president gets re-elected, I don't know what will happen.​

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm thinking it goes up over the next year.

Tons of people have their money out of the stock market right now because of the uncertainty with the election this year. Once the election is over, a lot of that uncertainty will be gone IMO. By the middle of next year the lame duck congress will be back to work. Hopefully the budget will be agreed upon by then. If all of that happens then I think people start putting their money back into the market.

You could be right several "experts" are predicting a 10-15% drop is due but it goes up and down without good reasons and might again.

It's just under 13,500 right now. 15% would be a roughly 2000 point drop to 11,500. I would guess 10 is probably more accurate down to just over 12 but a total guess.

I do think even as a Republican it's quite likely that Obama re-elected is better for the market short term than Romney. He just seems to be a little too vague with his economic policy it's sort of trust me just elect me and then I'll tell you what I'm going to do.

 

[conraddobler]

I'd say that once the election is over they'll pull the plug on a lot of excess stimulus in the form of liquidity to the market.

It's all rigged now with the FED intervening in everything, the last election right after was a huge dump because a lot of the band aids were left to expire before the new ones kicked in.

My guess is that once it's over no matter who wins they'll take this chance to revamp or re-align the market, not that they should be able to but they can and it's as good a time as any for a dump seeing as the election will be over and unaffected by any such dump.

Which is why you might even see it start to dump early, before the election as the smart money runs for cover.