OT: When to go for 2

[gusmahler]

Hypothetical:

You're down 29-14. 4th quarter. 7 minutes left.

You score a TD to make the score 29-20. Do you go for 2 now? Or do you kick the XP now and go for 2 after you score again?

 

[Shane]

Extra point IMO. You have to get the guaranteed points when you have them. An extra point is as close to a guaranteed point as you can get.

There is no guarantee you will get the 2nd TD or stop the other team from scoring again. But if you do you worry about the 2 pt conversion at that time.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

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When they are twins

 

[Shane]

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When they are twins

I know them

 

[Buckybird]

Kick it!!

Never go for the deuce until you have to.

 

[ajcardfan]

I hate it when coaches go for 2 too early. Or, when they go for TDs over FGs too early as well. Like numbnut Wade Phillips did against the Giants Monday.

 

[Pariah]

Unless you line up for the XP and have a killer fake drawn up and practiced to perfection, you go for the 2 later, IMO.

 

[Russ Smith]

Extra point IMO. You have to get the guaranteed points when you have them. An extra point is as close to a guaranteed point as you can get.

There is no guarantee you will get the 2nd TD or stop the other team from scoring again. But if you do you worry about the 2 pt conversion at that time.

Agreed, the generally accepted practice is you don't go for 2 until you have to.

So in that scenario you kick the XP and then go for 2 the next time.

 

[CardLogic]

When to go for two...

When you need only two to tie or win!


Of course, the best time to go for two is when Ben Graham and the cover team have downed the punt on the one yard line!

 

[FArting]

Go for 2

 

[DemsMyBoys]

Extra point.

Then pray to God you can get the ball back, with no damage done by the other side, and move it down the field. THEN you worry about the two points.

 

[gusmahler]

There is no guarantee you will get the 2nd TD or stop the other team from scoring again.

If either of these events happen, the question is moot.

The results are what I figured (75% say go for 1 now). Here's my explanation for why I would go for 2 now.

What if you wait to go for 2 until the second TD and miss. Then you have to onside kick and get the ball back. IOW, you have to panic because you had been playing as if it was a one possession game but the game turned into a 2-possession game as soon as you miss the 2-point conversion.

Contrast that with going for 2 now:

If you make it, you are about 99% sure (the XP conversion rate) that it's a one possession game now.

If you miss it, you are now 100% sure that it's a two possession game. Thus you play accordingly.

The problem with going for 1 now is that you play as if it's a one possession game (OK with letting the other team kill time; letting the clock go down when you have the ball). Yet you don't KNOW that it's a one possession game. The likely result of you waiting to go for two is that you score the TD to make it 29-27 with less than a minute left, then you panic if you miss the conversion.

If you know it's a two possession game, you try to score as quickly as you can because you know for certainty that you need to score twice.

Wouldn't you rather know if it's a one or two possession game now rather than having only a 40% chance of it being a one possession game?

 

[ajcardfan]

The problem with going for 1 now is that you play as if it's a one possession game (OK with letting the other team kill time; letting the clock go down when you have the ball). Yet you don't KNOW that it's a one possession game. The likely result of you waiting to go for two is that you score the TD to make it 29-27 with less than a minute left, then you panic if you miss the conversion.

I think if you are a smart enough coach to take the point when you should, you wouldn't be dumb enough to do that as the game ends.

 

[Mulli]

Extra point IMO. You have to get the guaranteed points when you have them. An extra point is as close to a guaranteed point as you can get.

There is no guarantee you will get the 2nd TD or stop the other team from scoring again. But if you do you worry about the 2 pt conversion at that time.

This.

 

[Jersey Girl]

Wouldn't you rather know if it's a one or two possession game now rather than having only a 40% chance of it being a one possession game?

Not necessarily. I think my team would be more motivated to play hard if the score were 29-21 rather than 29-20 with just under 7 to go. With the latter, you really only have to drive down the field once (if you score the 2-pt conversion). With the former, you already know you need to drive down the field and score twice in order to win.

 

[BigRedFan]

This is the situation Oklahoma had against Missouri. I think both have their pros and cons with neiher a right answer. As for going for 2, you will have to make the 2 point conversion now or later to avoid an additional possession; if I miss Id rather know sooner than later so theres more time to deal with it. If you go for the 1 pointer, then most likely the offense will take more of the remaining time to score the TD and then go for the 2 pts at the very end, at which point there will be no time for another possession if it is missed . It would be harder playing to gain time while assuming you will miss the 2 pointer if you haven't attempted it yet. Not that kicking the extra point is a bad call, just think going for 2 makes slightly more sense.

In favor of going for 1, Jersy girls post makes sense too, so I'll say even.

If either of these events happen, the question is moot.

The results are what I figured (75% say go for 1 now). Here's my explanation for why I would go for 2 now.

What if you wait to go for 2 until the second TD and miss. Then you have to onside kick and get the ball back. IOW, you have to panic because you had been playing as if it was a one possession game but the game turned into a 2-possession game as soon as you miss the 2-point conversion.

Contrast that with going for 2 now:

If you make it, you are about 99% sure (the XP conversion rate) that it's a one possession game now.

If you miss it, you are now 100% sure that it's a two possession game. Thus you play accordingly.

The problem with going for 1 now is that you play as if it's a one possession game (OK with letting the other team kill time; letting the clock go down when you have the ball). Yet you don't KNOW that it's a one possession game. The likely result of you waiting to go for two is that you score the TD to make it 29-27 with less than a minute left, then you panic if you miss the conversion.

If you know it's a two possession game, you try to score as quickly as you can because you know for certainty that you need to score twice.

Wouldn't you rather know if it's a one or two possession game now rather than having only a 40% chance of it being a one possession game?

 

[English on tour]

Later all day long. Don't kill the game before you are in it.

If you are denny green then both ;-)

 

[gusmahler]

Not necessarily. I think my team would be more motivated to play hard if the score were 29-21 rather than 29-20 with just under 7 to go. With the latter, you really only have to drive down the field once (if you score the 2-pt conversion).

That's a pretty big if.

The whole "one possession" line of reasoning is an illusion. It's not really a one possession game until you convert the 2 pointer.

 

[gusmahler]

I think if you are a smart enough coach to take the point when you should, you wouldn't be dumb enough to do that as the game ends.

That means that you would rather go for 1 now. Stop the other team and score as quickly as possible. The downside to that is you're going to give the other team the ball with a ton of time. You have to, because you're playing as if it's a two possession game, when it wasn't.

Contrast that with going for 2 first and converting. Then, you know it's a one possession game and you won't give the other team much time.

 

[Mainstreet]

Well, one thing to consider, it would be easier to run a trick play for a 2 point conversion after the first TD but I generally believe in going for the extra point first. If a team fails to score on a two point conversion with the score 29-20 the game it will take two scores to win and thus there is more of a strategy change.

 

[CardLogic]

If either of these events happen, the question is moot.

The results are what I figured (75% say go for 1 now). Here's my explanation for why I would go for 2 now.

What if you wait to go for 2 until the second TD and miss. Then you have to onside kick and get the ball back. IOW, you have to panic because you had been playing as if it was a one possession game but the game turned into a 2-possession game as soon as you miss the 2-point conversion.

Contrast that with going for 2 now:

If you make it, you are about 99% sure (the XP conversion rate) that it's a one possession game now.

If you miss it, you are now 100% sure that it's a two possession game. Thus you play accordingly.

The problem with going for 1 now is that you play as if it's a one possession game (OK with letting the other team kill time; letting the clock go down when you have the ball). Yet you don't KNOW that it's a one possession game. The likely result of you waiting to go for two is that you score the TD to make it 29-27 with less than a minute left, then you panic if you miss the conversion.

If you know it's a two possession game, you try to score as quickly as you can because you know for certainty that you need to score twice.

Wouldn't you rather know if it's a one or two possession game now rather than having only a 40% chance of it being a one possession game?

You're making the second biggest mistake in coaching football: over-analyzing your options.


The biggest mistake is prematurely going for two!

 

[gusmahler]

You're making the second biggest mistake in coaching football: over-analyzing your options.


The biggest mistake is prematurely going for two!

Thing is, at least I'm analyzing options. This thread is stopping analysis at "everyone goes for one"

 

[bg7brd]

Go for the XP. If you go for 2 and miss you kill your momentum. Football is a game of momentum.

 

[ajcardfan]

That means that you would rather go for 1 now. Stop the other team and score as quickly as possible. The downside to that is you're going to give the other team the ball with a ton of time. You have to, because you're playing as if it's a two possession game, when it wasn't.

Contrast that with going for 2 first and converting. Then, you know it's a one possession game and you won't give the other team much time.

When you are down by a TD you shouldn't be worrying about how much time you are going to leave the other the team with the ball. You should be trying to score, tie it, and have your D get the ball back so you have time to win in regulation. And, if you don't get the 2, you have time to either use timeouts and play defense for a stop or go for the onsides kick if you are out of timeouts.

I guess I can see some logic in your thinking if you have a really crappy defense. That's a pretty sad statement on your defense though. "We have to tie it right at the end of the game, and hope we get the ball first in OT."

 

[ajcardfan]

I hate it when coaches go for 2 too early. Or, when they go for TDs over FGs too early as well. Like numbnut Wade Phillips did against the Giants Monday.

Of all the things that happened yesterday, Whiz going for the TD rather than the FG pissed me off the most.