NCAA baseball bracket projections, bubble watch on selection day

[ASFN Admin]

Selection day is here for the NCAA baseball tournament as the full field of 64 will be revealed.

In the final few days of the weekend, several conference champions in one-bid leagues lost in their conference tournaments, leaving a weaker-than-usual pool of No. 3 seeds.

This season, the selection committee is seeding all of the 2-seeds and assigning them to regionals in groups of four. That was done here, while the 3- and 4-seeds were assigned based on geography and other factors.

The selection show will take place at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN2.

Host sites announced​

The 16 host sites have already been announced, though not in order. Ultimately, Oregon, West Virginia and Mississippi State landed host spots over bubble team Arkansas, Southern Cal and Oregon State.

Here are the 16 hosts, in alphabetical order:

• Alabama
• Auburn
• Florida
• Florida State
• Georgia
• Georgia Tech
• Kansas
• Mississippi State
• Nebraska
• North Carolina
• Oregon
• Southern Miss
• Texas
• Texas A&M
• UCLA
• West Virginia

NCAA baseball tournament bubble watch​

The bubble has some intrigue as top mid-majors and power-conference teams will be pitted against one another. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State, Kentucky and TCU are battling for position with Troy, Texas State, Mercer and UTSA.

In this projection, Kentucky and Virginia Tech made the field due to strong metrics, while Troy, Mercer and NC State took the final two spots. Troy helped itself more than just about any other non-autobid in its conference tournament. With an RPI of 35 and the second-ranked non-conference strength of schedule — the first mid-major to have a top-10 NCSOS since 2018 — the Trojans would be a major snub.

Mercer has some highs and some lows in the résumé. The Bears are 28th in RPI, which would be the best RPI to ever be left out of the field. They also rank 44th in DSR and 50th in KPI and have only one Quadrant 4 loss, but they won just one of five Quadrant 1 opportunities.

The final spot came down to NC State vs. TCU. TCU has slightly better metrics and a more difficult non-conference schedule, but went just 11-16 against the top two quads, compared to 13-16 for NC State. Perhaps more importantly, the Wolfpack saw the retirement of longtime coach Elliott Avent, and there's a long history of bubble teams getting in the field after their coach retired.

NCAA baseball bracket projections​

An asterisk (*) denotes automatic bids.

Last 4 In: Virginia Tech, Troy, Mercer, NC State

First 4 Out: TCU, Texas State, UTSA, Miami (Ohio)

Los Angeles Regional​

1. UCLA (1)
2. Liberty (31)
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Binghamton*

Morgantown Regional​

1. West Virginia (16)
2. Ole Miss (20)
3. Virginia Tech
4. Rider*

Gainesville Regional​

1. Florida (8)
2. Miami (28)
3. Mercer
4. Milwaukee*

Tallahassee Regional​

1. Florida State (9)
2. Jacksonville State* (23)
3. UCF
4. Holy Cross*

Auburn Regional​

1. Auburn (4)
2. Louisiana (32)
3. Cal Poly*
4. Alabama State*

Lincoln Regional​

1. Nebraska (13)
2. Arkansas (17)
3. Arizona State
4. South Dakota State*

Chapel Hill Regional​

1. North Carolina (5)
2. Tennessee (25)
3. East Carolina*
4. USC Upstate*

Lawrence Regional​

1. Kansas* (12)
2. Wake Forest (21)
3. Kentucky
4. Yale*

Atlanta Regional​

1. Georgia Tech (2)
2. Oklahoma (29)
3. The Citadel*
4. Lipscomb*

Starkville Regional​

1. Mississippi State (15)
2. Southern Cal
3. Troy
4. Little Rock*

Tuscaloosa Regional​

1. Alabama (7)
2. Coastal Carolina (26)
3. VCU*
4. Northeastern*

College Station Regional​

1. Texas A&M (10)
2. Virginia (24)
3. Tarleton State*
4. Long Island*

Athens Regional​

1. Georgia* (3)
2. Missouri State (30)
3. NC State
4. Saint John's*

Eugene Regional​

1. Oregon (14)
2. Oregon State (18)
3. Washington State*
4. Saint Mary's*

Austin Regional​

1. Texas (6)
2. Oklahoma State (27)
3. Northern Illinois*
4. Lamar*

Hattiesburg Regional​

1. Southern Miss (11)
2. Cincinnati (22)
3. Boston College
4. Illinois-Chicago*

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball bracket, regional bubble teams on selection day

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