NCAA baseball tournament projections, bubble watch as selection day approaches

[ASFN Admin]

Selection day is quickly approaching as baseball teams jockey for position on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Two teams have already earned automatic bids, Yale in the Ivy League and Holy Cross in the Patriot League. Beyond those, several top seeds face elimination in losers bracket games on May 22.

The selection show will take place May 25 (11 a.m. CT, ESPN2).

This season, the selection committee is seeding all of the 2-seeds and assigning them to regionals in groups of four. That was done here, while the 3- and 4-seeds were assigned based on geography and other factors.

NCAA baseball bubble watch​

A trio of Sun Belt Conference teams have really helped themselves in the conference tournaments. Louisiana feels like a safe bet to be in the field now, and Texas State and Troy also picked up wins. The latter two are still very much on the bubble and might be competing for one spot. The two resumes are very similar, so it may come down to which team advances further.

Trending down is the Big Ten duo of Michigan and Purdue. Though both teams are still alive in the Big Ten Tournament, they each took a loss to a non-regional team in the double-elimination portion. They likely need to win their next game (Michigan against Nebraska and Purdue against UCLA) to get in the conversation.

NC State took a loss to last-place Duke in the ACC Tournament, but coach Elliott Avent announced his retirement on May 21. In the past, several bubble teams with retiring coaches have made the field − 2019 Florida State, 2021 LSU and 2024 Coastal Carolina are a few notable examples.

Miami (Ohio) and Kent State each took losses in the double-elimination portion of the MAC Tournament. Though both are still alive, those losses reduce the probability of a stolen bid as the two teams will face off in an elimination game on May 22. This season is setting up to have few stolen bids, good news for bubble teams.

NCAA baseball bracket projections​

An asterisk * denotes projected automatic bids. Automatic bids were given to the highest remaining seed in each conference tournament, even if that team is in the losers bracket.

Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.

Last 4 In: Virginia Tech, East Carolina, NC State, Troy

First 4 Out: Texas State, Michigan, Kent State, Purdue

Los Angeles Regional​

1. UCLA (1)
2. UC Santa Barbara* (32)
3. Arizona State
4. San Diego State*

Lawrence Regional​

1. Kansas (16)
2. Arkansas (18)
3. Virginia Tech
4. SIU-Edwardsville

Tallahassee Regional​

1. Florida State (8)
2. Jacksonville State* (28)
3. Kentucky
4. North Florida*

Gainesville Regional​

1. Florida (9)
2. Coastal Carolina (24)
3. Miami (Ohio)*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Auburn Regional​

1. Auburn (4)
2. Missouri State (30)
3. Campbell*
4. Wright State*

Starkville Regional​

1. Mississippi State (13)
2. Wake Forest (20)
3. Louisiana
4. Long Island*

Austin Regional​

1. Texas (5)
2. Oklahoma State (26)
3. UTSA*
4. Tarleton State*

Morgantown Regional​

1. West Virginia (12)
2. Virginia (23)
3. Liberty
4. Saint Joseph's*

Atlanta Regional​

1. Georgia Tech (2)
2. Oklahoma (29)
3. Troy
4. Binghamton*

Eugene Regional​

1. Oregon (15)
2. Oregon State (17)
3. Gonzaga*
4. Illinois-Chicago*

Tuscaloosa Regional​

1. Alabama (7)
2. Miami (27)
3. Mercer*
4. Rider*

College Station Regional​

1. Texas A&M (10)
2. Southern Cal (21)
3. TCU
4. Oral Roberts*

Athens Regional​

1. Georgia (3)
2. UCF (31)
3. NC State
4. St. John's*

Hattiesburg Regional​

1. Southern Miss (14)
2. Ole Miss (19)
3. Boston College
4. Lamar*

Chapel Hill Regional​

1. North Carolina (6)
2. Tennessee (25)
3. East Carolina
4. Yale*

Lincoln Regional​

1. Nebraska (11)
2. Cincinnati (22)
3. High Point*
4. Holy Cross*

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball tournament projections, bubble watch as selection day approaches

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