BACH
Superbowl, Homeboy!
My third post in my little off-season evaluation series, where I try to evaluate Monti and come with suggestions - but looking at it from Monti's chair.
There are many great threads on the draft, the players and what's next from @Harry, @Chopper0080 , @Gandhi et all, so my focus will be on the process more than the players.
For those interested, here's the link to my two previous posts.
https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/my-suggested-approach-to-the-off-season-bach.576870/
https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/f...season-1st-wave-wrap-up-looking-ahead.609345/
I put up a couple a couple of pre-requisites for my thinking/how I think Monti thinks.
This is year three of a complete re-build and change of culture. Year 1 was shredding the teams of non-fits to install the new culture. Year 2 was to build the depth of the team and continuing to expand the new culture. Year 3 is the year to put a contender on the field. The goal should be to put a team together that should go to the 2nd round of the play-offs at a minimum.
I like how the team has been build so far. I cannot remember when a Cardinals team has been this deep at so many positions. There are still a few glaring need positions, but the overall depth is really solid. While depth is good, the team lacks elite talent, which also reflects back to Monti's drafts. None of the players Monti has drafted have been complete busts. All are looking the part of solid pieces (or has the trajectory), but at the same time none have been immediate superstars. Garrett Williams is the only one that is close, but hopefully we will see players like PJJ, MHJ and others take a step forward.
I graded Monti B+ for free agency, because he did very well in re-signings and upgrades, but I felt he needed to do more.
I did praise him for how well he positioned the roster, so he entered the draft with no position liabilities and gaping holes, but of course still with areas to upgrade. I asked if Monti would continue to secure the roster buttom-up or try make solid position groups into elite positions.
Draft Analysis
By design or by the way the draft fell, Monti chose the latter and stocked up on position groups.
Not discussing the results and players, but from a process POV we can analyze from Monti's draft strategy after 3 drafts:
1. Monti (and Gannon) value RAS scores and metrics more that most teams. The Colts are probably the team that draft most by metrics, but the Cardinals under MO is not far behind. We have seen this in earlier drafts, where especially the 3rd rounders last year stood out by being players with extremely high metrics and perhaps "overdrafted" if you look at the pure production. Nolen was a borderline top 5 player if only looking at metrics, Burch tested out of this world and therefore a natural pick taking this into account, while many of us were wishing for Princely. The same with ILB Simon over Chris Paul, who was the consensus best LB left in the 4th, because Simon had a much higher RAS score.
2. Monti clearly drafts in brackets, which was confirmed in the interview with assistant GM Sears. We already knew that they had PJJ in the same bracket as Anderson and Monti traded down and then back up to secure the player the wanted in the right bracket in the first draft. Last year, he traded down with DeJean still available because they still had enough players in the bracket to take from. 20/20 that was probably the wrong evaluation (along with 25 other teams that passed on him), but it shows the process and that Monti follows the board and the brackets. In the interview Sears says that he never expected Johnson to be available at #47 and that they had to take him, because they had him in another bracket. The same scenario played out with Burke and they had to take him because he was much much higher on the board (another bracket).
3. Monti is not afraid of moving around. We have seen that in previous years, but this year only a minor trade by trading down in the 5th and picking up the extra 6th rounder that we were missing from Browning. Again, I believe this is directly correlated to him sticking to his brackets and moving up to get a higher bracket player or down if there are plenty of options in the current bracket and of course that the roster is so much better and there wasn't a need to move (up or down) for a specific position.
4. Monti and Gannon drafts players to develop. This is a contrast to Keim, who took huge gambles to try to stike gold at a position of need. There is a plan and it's not by coincidence, which it often felt like with Keim. I feel this is source of a lot of frustration on the board, because we see very little impact from the lower draft picks. Monti has drafted OL and DB in every single draft for development. It's well proven that OL takes time to develop into NFL level players and entering the regime's 3rd year it's time to see whether that strategy is working.
5. Monti is helping his HC much more by taking scheme fit into the process. Not only did Monti score 4th highest in terms over value points (perceived value of a player at the drafted position), but every single pick fits the scheme that Gannon is running.
Again, a lot has been written on the players already, but I believe we saw Monti operating "most natural" because there was less pressure to find a specific position and his range of options were so much greater with the roster being so much better. He was meticulous, kept his cool and let the board fall to him. As a result, Monti got a lot of talent and talent not expected to fall that far. It's hard to evaluate especially this draft, but given the preference for metrics, the closest measuring stick from the media is probably PFF. Monti landed their #7 rated player in Nolen and the their #14 rated player in Johnson. Simon was probably the only need pick in the 4th, while Monti just kept stacking up talent - and talent in often filled rooms.
I'm still concerned about the OL and how the OL was bypassed, but it's hard not to look at the result and say "Bravo, Monti!". On paper this looks to be a really good draft, Monti helps Gannon a lot more than Keim ever did by drafting scheme fit players, so I'll give a A- to Monti for it. OL was missing, but cannot argue with a great outcome.
Roster Evaluation
Overall for the off-season it's even harder not to look at Monti's work and be impressed with how significantly better this roster is compared to 3 months ago. If we go back to my first post and re-view the position groups of need it's a much different team. I believe it's the deepest roster we have seen in Arizona. It's not the best roster as there is still the problem with lack of top-end talent, but it's the roster with the least amount of question marks.
Edge - not a concern anymore. Lack a truly elite player, but stacked room.
DL - Stacked roster with high-end players and elite potential in WN and DR and impressive depth.
CB - Stacked roster with incredible depth, 1 elite player in Williams and hopefully another in Johnson.
LB - I think a lot of us would like to see better players here, but it's obvious that ILB is the least prioritized position in JG's scheme and seems like MO and JG are content with the position group.
That basicly leaves only two positions with question marks IMO and you can then discuss whether the concern for one position is only for us on the board or that concern is shared by MO and JG.
WR
I believe most here thinks there is room for upgrade at WR. Whether that is a need for clear starter or adding a speed WR to compliment (which I want) can be discussed. The interesting thing is, that MO did nothing to improve this position. No FAs even visiting and he passed on what seemed to be good fits several times in the draft. So, what gives? I believe there are multiple factors at play here:
- The scheme is sooo TE heavy that it simply lessens the need for WR.
- We have to expect that MHJ will develop, Reiman will be involved more and Zay Jones will be more involved with a full off-season.
- There clearly were som issues with Petzing and the scheme in getting the passing game going. That could be a problem with Petzing, a problem with player talent or that the Petzing was required to play super conservative to mitigate for the underskilled defense. The frustrating thing is, that we saw glimpses of Dortch having a role in the passing game, we saw a few games with excellent usage of Zay Jones and we saw Reiman catching everything, but was never schemed or involved.
- Maybe we are right about the lack of talent, but MO has shown that he doesn't spend any money for marginal upgrades, so maybe they feel this is good enough until a true upgrade is there.
I honestly do not see MO doing anything here. I think the position is locked and only if a great upgrade is available there will be an addition.
OL
This is my big area of concern with some clear indication that Monti shares this concern as he tried to add Fries in FA (again a significant upgrade) and I highly suspect that the developmental OT that was leaked to be the draft strategy was Simmons OR Ersery. When Johnson fell, Ersery was no longer an option as he went #48 (which also could be considered a slide).
Williams is returning from injury at RT and is on his last year of his contract.
Brown was re-signed, but is IMO more an elite back-up than a true starter.
Adams has potential, but showed nothing last year to make you comfortable with him sliding into a starting role. So there is a need for at least 1 starting G and future options at RT.
The bad news is that OL is in short supply and it's hard to find on the market or through trades.
The good news is that MO has drafted developmental players on the OL every year. OL players takes about 3 years before they hit their peak, so the back-ups should be better. The question is if better is good enough to start? I like the potential of Adams, I actually liked what we saw from Christian Jones in his one start, but I'm skeptical and I think one more starting player is needed here.
What is next?
Monti has done a great job so far improving the roster and he constructed the contracts to have cap space to spend. We have to assume that more moves are coming, but there are not that many options available to truly improve the roster.
Another aspect to consider here is this GM and HC are developing players more than we have seen before and we do not have a "status" on the progress of Gaines, Reiman, Adams, OT Jones, CB Jones, Xavier Thomas or any of the WRs. This makes it even harder for us to guess from the outside.
Signing FAs
You have to assume that bringing back Hernandez is still an option. Maybe he needs to clear medically or they want to evaluate the many depth players first, but he's an option. Brandon Scherff is still available and draft bust Willis could be an option to play at G or RT, as the Browns insisted on keeping him at LT. I think it's very likely that a player will be added on the OL.
Trades
Adding players could also come through a trade. However, of all the players rumored to be on the trade block I have a hard time seeing a fit as there are several veteran DL, Edge and CBs. Those rooms are full now. We have to assume that Ramsey and Hendrickson are non-options at this point considering how full the Edge and CB rooms are.
One option could be Penning in NO to play at G. Great run-blocker. Disaster in pass-blocking at OT.
I truly believe some of the cap space is kept for having an option to trade for a player mid season, when losing teams are starting to clear their roster for players they do not see in their future plans.
Camp cuts/trades
I expect there to be some activity at the end of camp. Monti will be looking to upgrade and we have a lot of roster quality players at DL and CB and simply not enough roster spots.
Of players that I consider good enough for the final 53 somewhere in the league AND possible left out on this team I have:
- DL Stills
- DL LJ Collier
- DL Nichols
- CB SMB
- CB Sterling Thomas
- CB Clark
- DE Xavier Thomas
3-4 of these player will not be on the final roster IMO.
2xThomas and Stills are good enough while still being on their rookie deal to get you a draft pick in return - 5th-7th rounder.
SMB and Nichols are untradeable unless we eat some of their salary.
Clark and Collier will probably not get you anything.
There is the option of trading them for players on the verge of being cut from another team, but Monti has build really good depth, so realisticly we are taking players at the buttom of the roster and I only see WR depth, OL depth, LB depth and perhaps the 4th S as realistic positions to add.
There are many great threads on the draft, the players and what's next from @Harry, @Chopper0080 , @Gandhi et all, so my focus will be on the process more than the players.
For those interested, here's the link to my two previous posts.
https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/my-suggested-approach-to-the-off-season-bach.576870/
https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/f...season-1st-wave-wrap-up-looking-ahead.609345/
I put up a couple a couple of pre-requisites for my thinking/how I think Monti thinks.
This is year three of a complete re-build and change of culture. Year 1 was shredding the teams of non-fits to install the new culture. Year 2 was to build the depth of the team and continuing to expand the new culture. Year 3 is the year to put a contender on the field. The goal should be to put a team together that should go to the 2nd round of the play-offs at a minimum.
I like how the team has been build so far. I cannot remember when a Cardinals team has been this deep at so many positions. There are still a few glaring need positions, but the overall depth is really solid. While depth is good, the team lacks elite talent, which also reflects back to Monti's drafts. None of the players Monti has drafted have been complete busts. All are looking the part of solid pieces (or has the trajectory), but at the same time none have been immediate superstars. Garrett Williams is the only one that is close, but hopefully we will see players like PJJ, MHJ and others take a step forward.
I graded Monti B+ for free agency, because he did very well in re-signings and upgrades, but I felt he needed to do more.
I did praise him for how well he positioned the roster, so he entered the draft with no position liabilities and gaping holes, but of course still with areas to upgrade. I asked if Monti would continue to secure the roster buttom-up or try make solid position groups into elite positions.
Draft Analysis
By design or by the way the draft fell, Monti chose the latter and stocked up on position groups.
Not discussing the results and players, but from a process POV we can analyze from Monti's draft strategy after 3 drafts:
1. Monti (and Gannon) value RAS scores and metrics more that most teams. The Colts are probably the team that draft most by metrics, but the Cardinals under MO is not far behind. We have seen this in earlier drafts, where especially the 3rd rounders last year stood out by being players with extremely high metrics and perhaps "overdrafted" if you look at the pure production. Nolen was a borderline top 5 player if only looking at metrics, Burch tested out of this world and therefore a natural pick taking this into account, while many of us were wishing for Princely. The same with ILB Simon over Chris Paul, who was the consensus best LB left in the 4th, because Simon had a much higher RAS score.
2. Monti clearly drafts in brackets, which was confirmed in the interview with assistant GM Sears. We already knew that they had PJJ in the same bracket as Anderson and Monti traded down and then back up to secure the player the wanted in the right bracket in the first draft. Last year, he traded down with DeJean still available because they still had enough players in the bracket to take from. 20/20 that was probably the wrong evaluation (along with 25 other teams that passed on him), but it shows the process and that Monti follows the board and the brackets. In the interview Sears says that he never expected Johnson to be available at #47 and that they had to take him, because they had him in another bracket. The same scenario played out with Burke and they had to take him because he was much much higher on the board (another bracket).
3. Monti is not afraid of moving around. We have seen that in previous years, but this year only a minor trade by trading down in the 5th and picking up the extra 6th rounder that we were missing from Browning. Again, I believe this is directly correlated to him sticking to his brackets and moving up to get a higher bracket player or down if there are plenty of options in the current bracket and of course that the roster is so much better and there wasn't a need to move (up or down) for a specific position.
4. Monti and Gannon drafts players to develop. This is a contrast to Keim, who took huge gambles to try to stike gold at a position of need. There is a plan and it's not by coincidence, which it often felt like with Keim. I feel this is source of a lot of frustration on the board, because we see very little impact from the lower draft picks. Monti has drafted OL and DB in every single draft for development. It's well proven that OL takes time to develop into NFL level players and entering the regime's 3rd year it's time to see whether that strategy is working.
5. Monti is helping his HC much more by taking scheme fit into the process. Not only did Monti score 4th highest in terms over value points (perceived value of a player at the drafted position), but every single pick fits the scheme that Gannon is running.
Again, a lot has been written on the players already, but I believe we saw Monti operating "most natural" because there was less pressure to find a specific position and his range of options were so much greater with the roster being so much better. He was meticulous, kept his cool and let the board fall to him. As a result, Monti got a lot of talent and talent not expected to fall that far. It's hard to evaluate especially this draft, but given the preference for metrics, the closest measuring stick from the media is probably PFF. Monti landed their #7 rated player in Nolen and the their #14 rated player in Johnson. Simon was probably the only need pick in the 4th, while Monti just kept stacking up talent - and talent in often filled rooms.
I'm still concerned about the OL and how the OL was bypassed, but it's hard not to look at the result and say "Bravo, Monti!". On paper this looks to be a really good draft, Monti helps Gannon a lot more than Keim ever did by drafting scheme fit players, so I'll give a A- to Monti for it. OL was missing, but cannot argue with a great outcome.
Roster Evaluation
Overall for the off-season it's even harder not to look at Monti's work and be impressed with how significantly better this roster is compared to 3 months ago. If we go back to my first post and re-view the position groups of need it's a much different team. I believe it's the deepest roster we have seen in Arizona. It's not the best roster as there is still the problem with lack of top-end talent, but it's the roster with the least amount of question marks.
Edge - not a concern anymore. Lack a truly elite player, but stacked room.
DL - Stacked roster with high-end players and elite potential in WN and DR and impressive depth.
CB - Stacked roster with incredible depth, 1 elite player in Williams and hopefully another in Johnson.
LB - I think a lot of us would like to see better players here, but it's obvious that ILB is the least prioritized position in JG's scheme and seems like MO and JG are content with the position group.
That basicly leaves only two positions with question marks IMO and you can then discuss whether the concern for one position is only for us on the board or that concern is shared by MO and JG.
WR
I believe most here thinks there is room for upgrade at WR. Whether that is a need for clear starter or adding a speed WR to compliment (which I want) can be discussed. The interesting thing is, that MO did nothing to improve this position. No FAs even visiting and he passed on what seemed to be good fits several times in the draft. So, what gives? I believe there are multiple factors at play here:
- The scheme is sooo TE heavy that it simply lessens the need for WR.
- We have to expect that MHJ will develop, Reiman will be involved more and Zay Jones will be more involved with a full off-season.
- There clearly were som issues with Petzing and the scheme in getting the passing game going. That could be a problem with Petzing, a problem with player talent or that the Petzing was required to play super conservative to mitigate for the underskilled defense. The frustrating thing is, that we saw glimpses of Dortch having a role in the passing game, we saw a few games with excellent usage of Zay Jones and we saw Reiman catching everything, but was never schemed or involved.
- Maybe we are right about the lack of talent, but MO has shown that he doesn't spend any money for marginal upgrades, so maybe they feel this is good enough until a true upgrade is there.
I honestly do not see MO doing anything here. I think the position is locked and only if a great upgrade is available there will be an addition.
OL
This is my big area of concern with some clear indication that Monti shares this concern as he tried to add Fries in FA (again a significant upgrade) and I highly suspect that the developmental OT that was leaked to be the draft strategy was Simmons OR Ersery. When Johnson fell, Ersery was no longer an option as he went #48 (which also could be considered a slide).
Williams is returning from injury at RT and is on his last year of his contract.
Brown was re-signed, but is IMO more an elite back-up than a true starter.
Adams has potential, but showed nothing last year to make you comfortable with him sliding into a starting role. So there is a need for at least 1 starting G and future options at RT.
The bad news is that OL is in short supply and it's hard to find on the market or through trades.
The good news is that MO has drafted developmental players on the OL every year. OL players takes about 3 years before they hit their peak, so the back-ups should be better. The question is if better is good enough to start? I like the potential of Adams, I actually liked what we saw from Christian Jones in his one start, but I'm skeptical and I think one more starting player is needed here.
What is next?
Monti has done a great job so far improving the roster and he constructed the contracts to have cap space to spend. We have to assume that more moves are coming, but there are not that many options available to truly improve the roster.
Another aspect to consider here is this GM and HC are developing players more than we have seen before and we do not have a "status" on the progress of Gaines, Reiman, Adams, OT Jones, CB Jones, Xavier Thomas or any of the WRs. This makes it even harder for us to guess from the outside.
Signing FAs
You have to assume that bringing back Hernandez is still an option. Maybe he needs to clear medically or they want to evaluate the many depth players first, but he's an option. Brandon Scherff is still available and draft bust Willis could be an option to play at G or RT, as the Browns insisted on keeping him at LT. I think it's very likely that a player will be added on the OL.
Trades
Adding players could also come through a trade. However, of all the players rumored to be on the trade block I have a hard time seeing a fit as there are several veteran DL, Edge and CBs. Those rooms are full now. We have to assume that Ramsey and Hendrickson are non-options at this point considering how full the Edge and CB rooms are.
One option could be Penning in NO to play at G. Great run-blocker. Disaster in pass-blocking at OT.
I truly believe some of the cap space is kept for having an option to trade for a player mid season, when losing teams are starting to clear their roster for players they do not see in their future plans.
Camp cuts/trades
I expect there to be some activity at the end of camp. Monti will be looking to upgrade and we have a lot of roster quality players at DL and CB and simply not enough roster spots.
Of players that I consider good enough for the final 53 somewhere in the league AND possible left out on this team I have:
- DL Stills
- DL LJ Collier
- DL Nichols
- CB SMB
- CB Sterling Thomas
- CB Clark
- DE Xavier Thomas
3-4 of these player will not be on the final roster IMO.
2xThomas and Stills are good enough while still being on their rookie deal to get you a draft pick in return - 5th-7th rounder.
SMB and Nichols are untradeable unless we eat some of their salary.
Clark and Collier will probably not get you anything.
There is the option of trading them for players on the verge of being cut from another team, but Monti has build really good depth, so realisticly we are taking players at the buttom of the roster and I only see WR depth, OL depth, LB depth and perhaps the 4th S as realistic positions to add.
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