Making the leap

[BACH]

A spin-off from my off-season evaluation inspired by the SI article about, who would step up in the secondary.

One of the difference of this regime is drafting for developing players. Monti drafts for depth to develop and scheme fits typically from big schools, which is the opposite Keim, who took crazy flyers on a lot of players expecting them to make an immediate impact (a few home runs and A LOT of misses).

We are entering the 3rd year of the regime and in terms of drafting results it's a bit peculiar.

- This is the highest number of draft picks for the Cardinals over any 3 year stretch since the draft was reduced to it's 7 round format.
- Last season we had most top 100 picks by any NFL team on 34 years
- There doesn't appear to any draft busts, but there hasn't been any immediate impact stars either.
- Instead the we have a lot (as in a lot a lot) of developmental young players that look to have a solid trajectory.

Someone will make a leap. Someone will disappoint.

So... We are in the dull period of the season. Let's discuss.
Who is going to make the leap forward from the 2nd and 3rd players?
Which rookie is going to make an impact?

Round 1 - T Paris Johnson
Round 2 - LB BJ Ojulari
Round 3 - DB Garrett Williams
Round 3 - WR Michael Wilson
Round 4 - G Jon Gaines
Round 5 - QB Clayton Tune
Round 5 - LB Owen Pappoe
Round 6 - DB Kei'Trel Clark
Round 6 - DT Dante Stills
Undrafted - CB Sterling Thomas

Round 1 - WR Marvin Harrison
Round 1 - DT Darius Robinson
Round 2 - DB Max Melton
Round 3 - RB Trey Benson
Round 3 - G Isaiah Adams
Round 3 - TE Tip Reiman
Round 3 - DB Elijah Jones
Round 4 - DB Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Round 5 - DE Xavier Thomas
Round 5 - T Christian Jones
Round 6 - WR Tejhaun Palmer
Round 7 - DB Jaden Davis
Undrafted - WR Xavier Weaver

Round 1 - DT Walter Nolen
Round 2 - DB Will Johnson
Round 3 - DE Jordan Burch
Round 4 - LB Cody Simon
Round 5 - DB Denzel Burke
Round 6 - G Hayden Conner
Round 7 - DB Kitan Crawford

 

[BACH]

My take...

PJJ
O-linemen takes time to adjust to the NFL. I got ridiculed on another thread for writing that 9 of 10 do not reach their peak until their 3rd year or later. Well.. I had to appologize. Taking the top 15 OTs in the NFL and the correct number is only 88%.... Paris is entering his 3rd year. His 2nd at LT. He was just below pro-bowl level last season. I believe he'll take the next step next season.

Tipp Reiman
Tight-End is one of the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL. The bust rate for TEs is insanely high - high to low pick. Reiman is a special case. He was hardly used in college and played for a run heavy team. But he scored the 2nd highest metrics and athletic scores ever in the combine. He's a freak! The coaching staff eased him into the starting line-up and made him concentrate only on the run-blocking. This is not unusual for a TE. McBride was kept off the field as a rookie because he didn't grasp the blocking assignments. Reiman understood and made it on the field. He wasn't however not involved much in the passing game and he wasn't schemed to be part of the passing game. We saw one game where is was actually a part of the passing game (NE) and Reiman caught everything throw to him. Nothing indicates that this will not continue and I expect him to be a much bigger part of the passing game. Bold prediction. He'll have 4th most receptions on the team this season.

That is also absolutely necessary that Reiman turns into a TE1 as Monti most likely will trade McBride because he's closing in on 64 starts (it’s a joke. if you know, you know)

Max Melton
Melton needed some time to adjust to the NFL level. He had some great games, but also some very bad games. I'm certain that he'll adjust and stabilize his game.

Christian Jones
Jones had a really rough pre-season game with 4 holding penalties in a row. But interestingly. He played really well and he did it again in the season finale, which was his sole start. I think he'll take a step up. It might not be enough to be a starter, but he'll be ready enough that Beachum will not be re-signed after this season.

Will Johnson
I think Nolan will have a role as a rookie and make some impact, but with a full DT room I do not expect him to have more than 40-45% snaps.
Will Johnson will be a day 1 starter.

Honerable mentions
(players but I expect to show progress, but not sure how much)
MHJ
Adams
Xavier Thomas

First Monti players I expect to not be on the final roster
Pappoe
Clark

 

[Stout]

I like your write up, and your write ups in general. You go long but you don't sermonize like some on this board.

That said, the Tip love, here and from other posters, is puzzling. He's a blocking TE. He's decent at it but also takes costly penalties. Teams also know we're likely to run when he is in the game, so our offense becomes predictable. He's a nonentity in the passing game. One outlier game does not a pass-catching TE make. That's not a knock on him--blocking TEs serve a purpose. He was a reach in the 3rd, but that's in the past and doesn't matter now, though some will always hold that against him. His combine numbers mean less than nothing. If he can clean up the penalties, he'll be on this team a long time. As he was a rookie, I think he can clean those penalties up, so he will have value, especially in an offense like this. Should we ever move off of Petzing and move away from a run heavy offense, that value will diminish.

 

[BirdGangThing]

i actually almost kinda appreciated the 4 holding penalties in a row - i think it shows something character wise - lack of technique - inexperience - but there's also a mental "you shall not pass" mindset taking place there - after the first 2 penalties a lot of young guys wouldn't dare hold again and after the 3rd forgetaboutit

 

[BACH]

I like your write up, and your write ups in general. You go long but you don't sermonize like some on this board.

That said, the Tip love, here and from other posters, is puzzling. He's a blocking TE. He's decent at it but also takes costly penalties. Teams also know we're likely to run when he is in the game, so our offense becomes predictable. He's a nonentity in the passing game. One outlier game does not a pass-catching TE make. That's not a knock on him--blocking TEs serve a purpose. He was a reach in the 3rd, but that's in the past and doesn't matter now, though some will always hold that against him. His combine numbers mean less than nothing. If he can clean up the penalties, he'll be on this team a long time. As he was a rookie, I think he can clean those penalties up, so he will have value, especially in an offense like this. Should we ever move off of Petzing and move away from a run heavy offense, that value will diminish.

And that is your opinion, which you are entitled to.

I just have a different opinion and that is the whole reason I made this thread. To have a discussion.

My reasoning.

Tight-End has one the highest bust probabilities of all positions.

You see some TEs have early success, but they are all pure receiving tight-ends without much involvement in run blocking. Complete TEs playing from day 1 is the rarest breed in the league.

We have arguebly the best TE in the league on the team. He barely sniffed the field as a rookie because he couldn't pick up the blocking scheme.

Last year we saw a rookie that was actually able to pick the blocking scheme and be a significant addition to the run game. Was it perfect? No!

But Reiman is already ahead of the curve by having a role on the team as a rookie.

On top of that Reiman is a freak athlete scoring the second highest athletic score in the combine - ever. So there potential for him to expand the role significantly and be included in the passing game.

I believe he will. He already passed the roadblocks that are the reason, why so many TEs flop. He's ready to add the next layer and take his game to the next level IMO.

 

[BACH]

His combine numbers mean less than nothing.

Please explain the #17 overall pick in this year's draft then.

Or Kyle Pitts taken #4 overall.

 

[BirdGangThing]

i want to see more of tip at fullback - higgins and mcbride make the better two tight end set - idc about combo numbers neither but the power is undeniable - no other tight end sledded like tip did

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Proximo]

The guys I expect the most improvement from are Isiah Adams, Darius Robinson, Max Melton, and Marvin

 

[Stout]

And that is your opinion, which you are entitled to.

I just have a different opinion and that is the whole reason I made this thread. To have a discussion.

My reasoning.

Tight-End has one the highest bust probabilities of all positions.

You see some TEs have early success, but they are all pure receiving tight-ends without much involvement in run blocking. Complete TEs playing from day 1 is the rarest breed in the league.

We have arguebly the best TE in the league on the team. He barely sniffed the field as a rookie because he couldn't pick up the blocking scheme.

Last year we saw a rookie that was actually able to pick the blocking scheme and be a significant addition to the run game. Was it perfect? No!

But Reiman is already ahead of the curve by having a role on the team as a rookie.

On top of that Reiman is a freak athlete scoring the second highest athletic score in the combine - ever. So there potential for him to expand the role significantly and be included in the passing game.

I believe he will. He already passed the roadblocks that are the reason, why so many TEs flop. He's ready to add the next layer and take his game to the next level IMO.

Healthy disagreement is the bedrock of the board! I agree that getting playing time his rookie season serves him well. He had his penalty bumbles, so they will need to stop. Hopefully they are out of his system.

His athletic scores, however, will not make a single block, catch a single pass, or impact his career whatsoever. His athleticism itself also holds no guarantee he will develop as a pass catcher. Maybe he will. I'd love to be wrong.

 

[Stout]

Please explain the #17 overall pick in this year's draft then.

Or Kyle Pitts taken #4 overall.

I didn't realize he was drafted in the 1st round!

Sorry man, his scores mean nothing now. The draft is well in the past for Tip. Can pure athleticism make him a major pass catcher after he proved out not to be that in college? I have my doubts, obviously.

 

[PACardsFan]

And that is your opinion, which you are entitled to.

I just have a different opinion and that is the whole reason I made this thread. To have a discussion.

My reasoning.

Tight-End has one the highest bust probabilities of all positions.

You see some TEs have early success, but they are all pure receiving tight-ends without much involvement in run blocking. Complete TEs playing from day 1 is the rarest breed in the league.

We have arguebly the best TE in the league on the team. He barely sniffed the field as a rookie because he couldn't pick up the blocking scheme.

Last year we saw a rookie that was actually able to pick the blocking scheme and be a significant addition to the run game. Was it perfect? No!

But Reiman is already ahead of the curve by having a role on the team as a rookie.

On top of that Reiman is a freak athlete scoring the second highest athletic score in the combine - ever. So there potential for him to expand the role significantly and be included in the passing game.

I believe he will. He already passed the roadblocks that are the reason, why so many TEs flop. He's ready to add the next layer and take his game to the next level IMO.

You’ve put up 3 very good posts! I agree with you that Reiman’s play last year was impressive from a blocking standpoint. Being mostly retired now, I have really watched a ton of replays from
last season and seasons past. Reiman had some great blocks last year & he’ll only get better. As far as penalties are concerned, the one that killed us the most was against the Vikings, and that was total bs. He’s the perfect complement to Trey, mainly because he’s a significantly better blocker than McBride. I do believe he will progress this year as a pass catcher also.

It’s impressive to me that all 28 of our draft picks over the last 3 years are still affiliated with the team. We may lose a couple this year, but that’s the price of continued improvement. I think the greatest strides will be made from the 2024 draft class. MHJ has to be at the top of that list in the area of greatest improvement. It was unfair to think he would be the savior of a position room that was awful in 2023. He had a good rookie season, but we weren’t a playoff team unless he was very good to great. And he wasn’t the latter. But, just looking at the physical off-season body transformation he’s made, my expectations are much higher.

My greatest expectations of improvement lie with the following players

2023 class
PJJ
Ojulari

2024 class
MHJ
DRob
Melton
Benson
Adams
Reiman
Rabbit
C Jones

We shouldn’t forget about Elijah Jones either. But, like Gaines from the 2023 draft, he was set back with the injury. He’ll contribute this year, but more so in 2026.

 

[CardNots]

It’s impressive to me that all 28 of our draft picks over the last year are still affiliated with the team.

I was stunned

 

[ASUCHRIS]

That is also absolutely necessary that Reiman turns into a TE1 as Monti most likely will trade McBride because he's closing in on 64 starts (if you know, you know)

I don't know...does he turn into a pumpkin? I think anyone suggesting we trade our best player on offense who is in his prime is un poco loco.

 

[PACardsFan]

I was stunned

My bad lol. Obviously I meant the last 3 years lol.

 

[BACH]

I don't know...does he turn into a pumpkin? I think anyone suggesting we trade our best player on offense who is in his prime is un poco loco.

It’s a joke

 

[CardNots]

My bad lol. Obviously I meant the last 3 years lol.

I took it as such as you first mentioned last 3 so no worries. Still stunning accomplishment.

 

[BACH]

Gannon mentioned a couple of guys to take a leap in his press confernce.

Not the list of players you would expect

- MHJ
- Reiman
- Adams
- Xavier Weaver

 

[CardNots]

Gannon mentioned a couple of guys to take a leap in his press confernce.

Not the list of players you would expect

- MHJ
- Reiman
- Adams
- Xavier Weaver

I’m hoping Reiman becomes Max Williams like.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Gannon mentioned a couple of guys to take a leap in his press confernce.

Not the list of players you would expect

- MHJ
- Reiman
- Adams
- Xavier Weaver

Adam's stepping up and earning the RG spot would nice

We need these kind of guys to make an impact

 

[oaken1]

Adam's stepping up and earning the RG spot would nice

We need these kind of guys to make an impact

agree. he was pretty effective in the run game. If he can bring his pass protection up to par it goes a long way in easing my concerns over the interior line.
That Will Hernandez injury really hurts. I know I like Hernandez more than most on here. But his presence was missed in nearly every game. Adams has big shoes to fill.
surprisingly, this kid we drafted this year has a similar profile...good run blocker but sorely lacking in pass pro. But unlike Adams I dont think his feet are quick enough for his pass pro to improve much.
whoever wins the starting jobs, continuity will be key. if we can just keep guys healthy and not have to rely on our interior depth we should be fine.

I am also wondering about Jones... he played fairly respectable ball at OT when he got in there...could he play inside? We have Beach to come off the bench so at the moment we dont really need Jones as depth...and we would have to have two OT injuries to make him kick out... and if that happens we are kinda screwed anyway... but getting our best five on the field could include having Jones play guard

 

[Cheesebeef]

Gannon mentioned a couple of guys to take a leap in his press confernce.

Not the list of players you would expect

- MHJ
- Reiman
- Adams
- Xavier Weaver

The last two are unexpected to hear they’re taking a leap, but we shouldn’t expect the #4 pick or a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft to take a leap in their second year? I def expect guys drafted that high to take a second year leap.

 

[oaken1]

The last two are unexpected to hear they’re taking a leap, but we shouldn’t expect the #4 pick or a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft to take a leap in their second year? I def expect guys drafted that high to take a second year leap.

I could see Weaver making a leap... I mean, the south florida bulls aint really a coaching powerhouse and a single season as a colorado buffalo isnt much help. so he can be coached up.
plus, for the draft he was only 169 pounds...pretty light for a 6 foot wr
so between coaching and weight training a jump should be likely
rather or not it gets him 15 or 20 percent of the snaps is another question all together...its not like our offense has a ton of extra targets to spread around

 

[Stout]

Adam's stepping up and earning the RG spot would nice

We need these kind of guys to make an impact

As of now, there's nothing to earn--Adams IS the RG.

 

[BirdGangThing]

As of now, there's nothing to earn--Adams IS the RG.

hoping he's been in the weight room with everyone else

 

[Totally_Red]

I could see Weaver making a leap... I mean, the south florida bulls aint really a coaching powerhouse and a single season as a colorado buffalo isnt much help. so he can be coached up.
plus, for the draft he was only 169 pounds...pretty light for a 6 foot wr
so between coaching and weight training a jump should be likely
rather or not it gets him 15 or 20 percent of the snaps is another question all together...its not like our offense has a ton of extra targets to spread around

I am intrigued by Weaver. If memory serves he was on the 53 man roster all season but never active meaning they didn't want to lose him and thought he had developmental potential.