How Close Are The Cardinals?

[Cbus cardsfan]

Ah... "after his injury." Why exclude the 18 points against the Chargers in Week 1?

And why not talk about the points the OFFENSE scored, instead of the Cards? Because the defense scored 7 points against Washington in a Rashard Johnson INT return? Because the defense scored 14 points against St. Louis?

The intellectual dishonesty you're displaying here is really breathtaking. Like, extraordinarily dishonest.

I used the total point scored for all teams as a basis for the 16 game projection. Unless the Cards are the only team that scored defensive or special teams points, there's nothing dishonest about it. Factoring the 18 points against SD, that would put the Cards 8th in the NFL rather than 7th. That still shows the offense is not an issue with CP at the helm. Without CP running the show the Cards scored 14.6 points a game, or more than 10 points less per contest. There's no disputing that.

 

[kerouac9]

I actually think they're a good line in both areas. Wilson scrambles because they have very sub-par receivers. They have no one with speed on the outside and no good route runners. Wilson is an awesome QB and can operate in the pocket if dudes get open.

You're welcome to think that, but there isn't a lot of evidence to back that up. Seattle allowed sacks on 8.7% of their dropbacks per football outsiders, which puts them 24th in the league in pass blocking.

I used the total point scored for all teams as a basis for the 16 game projection. Unless the Cards are the only team that scored defensive or special teams points, there's nothing dishonest about it. Factoring the 18 points against SD, that would put the Cards 8th in the NFL rather than 7th. That still shows the offense is not an issue with CP at the helm. Without CP running the show the Cards scored 14.6 points a game, or more than 10 points less per contest. There's no disputing that.

Because defensive scoring 21 points (not counting short fields due to turnovers, FGs converted based on short drives, etc.) isn't necessarily replicable over a 16 game season--as we saw as the season wore on. Just like Carson Palmer not throwing INTs at the beginning of the year wasn't sustainable.

I think that Carson Palmer is fine. I don't think he's a Top 8 quarterback, and I think the Cards would still need to lean on their D to win games and create turnovers to get points. You're not going to get better than Carson Palmer in 2015--that's just the fact.

But you have to get better on offense. Whether that's finding a more explosive option than Larry Fitzgerald, whether that's finding an additional running back you have faith in, whether it's continuing to chum the waters for a TE, or a combination, this offense is going to have to improve to be successful and actually be a Super Bowl contender.

 

[don7031]

On defense the Cardinals are close. They played very well despite have major personnel liabilities. They couldn't speed the quarterback up with a four man rush. When Seattle had that problem earlier in the year, their defense couldn't get off the field. The good news is that the draft is full of late first round rated rush backers.

The other pressing need is middle linebacker. It's hard to believe that in today's NFL you could go into the season in a 3-4 scheme without having inside backers with coverage skills. But the Cardinals did.

The other side of the ball is much more problematic. The non-existent running game had two causes. The dearth of talent on the offensive line led to emphasizing pass protection and that Andre Ellington was hurt going into the season (MRI on foot prior to the opening game).

Running back is easy to address. There is a constant influx of adequate backs from the collegiate ranks.

The offensive line has one keeper in Jared Veldheer who was attributed only one sack last year. The other four guys need to be rolled over starting with Bobbie Massie. I know the interior of the line can't run block worth a damn, but if Massie is playing tackle next September, Carson Palmer won't be under center in December. The Cardinals are probably going to look for a second tier free agent or two as a quick fix, but offensive lines are built via the draft. Nine out of the ten offensive lineman in the Super Bowl are playing for their original team.

I'm reading Fitz can't get open all the time here. Fitz is running: short, short, short all day long. The other team knows that. If he goes elsewhere and has stellar season people are going to be saying "well he didn't do that here". What have the Cardinals asked him to do?

 

[kerouac9]

On defense the Cardinals are close. They played very well despite have major personnel liabilities. They couldn't speed the quarterback up with a four man rush. When Seattle had that problem earlier in the year, their defense couldn't get off the field. The good news is that the draft is full of late first round rated rush backers.

The other pressing need is middle linebacker. It's hard to believe that in today's NFL you could go into the season in a 3-4 scheme without having inside backers with coverage skills. But the Cardinals did.

The other side of the ball is much more problematic. The non-existent running game had two causes. The dearth of talent on the offensive line led to emphasizing pass protection and that Andre Ellington was hurt going into the season (MRI on foot prior to the opening game).

Running back is easy to address. There is a constant influx of adequate backs from the collegiate ranks.

The offensive line has one keeper in Jared Veldheer who was attributed only one sack last year. The other four guys need to be rolled over starting with Bobbie Massie. I know the interior of the line can't run block worth a damn, but if Massie is playing tackle next September, Carson Palmer won't be under center in December. The Cardinals are probably going to look for a second tier free agent or two as a quick fix, but offensive lines are built via the draft. Nine out of the ten offensive lineman in the Super Bowl are playing for their original team.

I'm reading Fitz can't get open all the time here. Fitz is running: short, short, short all day long. The other team knows that. If he goes elsewhere and has stellar season people are going to be saying "well he didn't do that here". What have the Cardinals asked him to do?

Your comments on the offensive line are not in line with the reality. Our offensive line was one of the top pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, and Massie and Sendlein were tied for the second-best players on that line.

The problem is poor guard play, particularly in the running game.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Your comments on the offensive line are not in line with the reality. Our offensive line was one of the top pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, and Massie and Sendlein were tied for the second-best players on that line.

The problem is poor guard play, particularly in the running game.

This, and guard is not a give me but it is one of the easier positions to fill... but from my estimation Arian's requires a athletic guard for pulling and maybe that has been the problem but the guards starting now do not seem that athletic

 

[don7031]

When passing backed up deep in their own end, the Cardinals would pull Larsen to double with the running back on the edge rusher from the right side rather than entrust Massie to make the block. Think about that for a second. The Cardinals would rather have a guard make a very difficult block and take the back out of the pattern rather than have Massie responsible for the edge rusher. When in jeopardy of giving up a safety, the Cardinals chose Larsen over Massie. The Cardinals showed you on the field who is the weakest link on the line.

 

[kerouac9]

When passing backed up deep in their own end, the Cardinals would pull Larsen to double with the running back on the edge rusher from the right side rather than entrust Massie to make the block. Think about that for a second. The Cardinals would rather have a guard make a very difficult block and take the back out of the pattern rather than have Massie responsible for the edge rusher. When in jeopardy of giving up a safety, the Cardinals chose Larsen over Massie. The Cardinals showed you on the field who is the weakest link on the line.

I've seen a lot of teams do that. It happens some times, particularly when teams put up an overload blitz. It's not ideal, but it is what it is. And the Cards only did that in special situations, not consistently like they had to do last year with Bradley Sowell at OT in particular.

 

[Darkside]

You're welcome to think that, but there isn't a lot of evidence to back that up. Seattle allowed sacks on 8.7% of their dropbacks per football outsiders, which puts them 24th in the league in pass blocking.

I don't dispute your numbers, but I think if you look up any "scrambling QB" their sack rates are atrocious.

The point I was making is that Wilson has to scramble due to a lack of talent at the WR position. Kaepernick, for example, has decent receivers and didn't need to but I'd imagine his sack rate is disgusting. Cam Newton also does it out of necessity I'd argue.

That being said, I think your point about Wilson needing clear throwing lanes, because of his lack of height, is accurate. I've wondered if he holds the ball too long--my assumption is that he does so because his guys can't get open. You may be entirely accurate, however, in stating that he's trying to create throwing lanes by holding the ball and scrambling.

I would argue though that whether Wilson does that due to below average receivers or due to a lack of height really isn't an indication of their offensive line. All I know with certainty is that their receivers suck and Wilson holds the ball way too long unless he's throwing slants.

 

[Darkside]

I used the total point scored for all teams as a basis for the 16 game projection. Unless the Cards are the only team that scored defensive or special teams points, there's nothing dishonest about it. Factoring the 18 points against SD, that would put the Cards 8th in the NFL rather than 7th. That still shows the offense is not an issue with CP at the helm. Without CP running the show the Cards scored 14.6 points a game, or more than 10 points less per contest. There's no disputing that.

Palmer isn't a top 10 QB. That's just a fact. He's good enough to take us to a SB IMO but even that is debatable. Without a running game, no. With receivers dropping a crap load of balls, no. There's no evidence whatsoever Palmer can win big games. Not just SBs, but the games to get us there.

I checked Warners stats weekly in 08 during our SB run when he was lighting it up. He was almost always in the top 10, but he was only top 5 I believe one week and the rest of the time he was 7, 8 9 etc. Few times he was out of the top 10 entirely. Palmer is nowhere near a Kurt Warner. The only thing they have in common is they can both throw 4 INTs and continue chucking it like nothing happened. Which is hugely important, don't get me wrong, see the Seattle game last year. That's the difference between a SB winning QB and a dude like Palmer.

You simply can't extrapolate Palmers #'s over the course of a year. For one thing, averages tend to matter. For another, the toughest part of our schedule with the best defenses occurred after he went down.

I like CP and think he's our best chance. But I think he's middle of the pack, which is pretty good frankly. I think he gives us a chance because he can make almost every throw (his fade sucks). He can make the tough throws and has an iron will and doesn't get discouraged.

But let's be honest here, without a team around him, defense, special teams, a running game, he's not taking us anywhere. A top 10 QB gets you in the playoffs by himself. See Andrew Luck.

 

[Darkside]

This, and guard is not a give me but it is one of the easier positions to fill... but from my estimation Arian's requires a athletic guard for pulling and maybe that has been the problem but the guards starting now do not seem that athletic

Agreed. I think we witnessed an adjustment from BA for that reason. Wasn't a lot of pulling but more traps and power running between the tackles.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't dispute your numbers, but I think if you look up any "scrambling QB" their sack rates are atrocious.

The point I was making is that Wilson has to scramble due to a lack of talent at the WR position. Kaepernick, for example, has decent receivers and didn't need to but I'd imagine his sack rate is disgusting. Cam Newton also does it out of necessity I'd argue.

That being said, I think your point about Wilson needing clear throwing lanes, because of his lack of height, is accurate. I've wondered if he holds the ball too long--my assumption is that he does so because his guys can't get open. You may be entirely accurate, however, in stating that he's trying to create throwing lanes by holding the ball and scrambling.

I would argue though that whether Wilson does that due to below average receivers or due to a lack of height really isn't an indication of their offensive line. All I know with certainty is that their receivers suck and Wilson holds the ball way too long unless he's throwing slants.

San Francisco ranked 30 in Adjusted Sack Rate. Carolina actually ranked above Seattle, which is surpirsing because their OL personnel is a dumpster fire.

I disagree with you that Wilson is a "scrambling QB" as much as a QB who scrambles. His movements in the pocket remind me of what Drew Brees has to do to find passing lanes.

 

[BigRedMO]

Your comments on the offensive line are not in line with the reality. Our offensive line was one of the top pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, and Massie and Sendlein were tied for the second-best players on that line.

The problem is poor guard play, particularly in the running game.

Spot on about pass protection. They tied for 6th fewest sacks allowed. To tell you the truth I was shocked to see the stats because between the QB injuries and it seemed like the QB was always being hit I assumed they were a bad pass protecting unit. So I really dont get why they cant run the ball and really have not been able to do it consistently for a full season since the days of Ottis Anderson. KC Chiefs have one of the best run games in the league but their o-line ranks near worst in sacks allowed. Makes no sense to me. To me a good lineman is a good line man and can pass protect and run block because it comes from their athleticism and not technique. Dan Dierdorf and the lines he played on could do any kinda blocking you needed. Pass or run did not matter. I realize the techniques are different and other factors come into play like quickness of QB release skill of running backs etc.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...fensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false