Good draft for Suns

[sunsallday]

just b/c there are busts doesn't mean that as a gm you aren't held to a level of expertise to avoid the busts. that's why those guys are paid.

actually, i'm not even sure what message your post is supposed to convey.

What I'm trying to say is a player can seem like a sure all-star in the draft, but can become a huge bust. How many GMs picked the best looking player in the draft that completely sucked. Countless. You can't avoid a bust because anyone can become one. Some people look real good in college, but can become sub par or horrible in the NBA. That is why I say that the Draft is all about potential. It is a win or lose situation.

 

[Cheesewater]

first, you're basically telling me to shut up and not have an opinion b/c professionals make decisions. that's silly. i have eyes and a mind, i can watch players and form an opinion for myself. i'm even allowed to share it - SHOCKER OF SHOCKERS - on a sports forum!

The very last thing I wrote was "You are free to judge the Suns draft as good or bad as you see it. Just don't expect people to be moved by your opinion." How is that telling you to shut up? It is the opposite, actually.

i'm just having a discussion. i could care less if i sway anyone. i do care that people jump on those of us that are critical of a move made by our front office immediately upon stating an observation or opinion.

I hope you mean that you COULDN'T care less. And actually it's me reacting to posters who are jumping on the pick.

some of you believe that b/c you agree with everything the suns say that you have the weight of authority behind your statement, that's as false as my thinking my opinion may sway anyone. you know, maybe you should take your own advice . . . you are free to judge the suns draft as good or bad as you see it. just don't expect people to be moved by your opinion.

Good try there with the sweeping generalization. If you don't give much creedence to what the professionals believe, that is your choice. If I watch Lopez and see what they are seeing, it is perfectly appropriate for me to feel reinforced in my observation by supporting it with the opinions of professionals in the field.

 

[Chaplin]

"Upside" is a myth. Drafting for "upside" is a huge risk because it rarely works. Lopez was drafted because he already has a skill set that fits what the Suns are looking for. No more, no less. You are making this whole thing out to be completely overblown--they didn't draft Robin Lopez at #15 to save the team, even though you want that pick to.

 

[sunsallday]

Some people were too delusional with the #15 pick including me. I obviously wanted Brandon Rush until Portland spitefully took him(how much more talent do you want Portland?). But I also knew that a draft pick is not going to save your team. The player is just another piece of trying to make the team get better. If Lopez does become our starting center of the future, then so be it. He doesn't have to be our offensive go to guy as we already have Stoudemire for that. He can be a role player and do the dirty work.

People seem to forget that basketball is a team sport. A winning team is when 5 teammates are playing on the court playing as one. A losing team is 5 individuals playing on the court playing for themselves.

 

[BigRedRage]

I like Skinner

 

[Mulli]

I like Skinner

Did you type that standing up?

 

[Cheesewater]

the higher up your position, the fewer mistakes are allowed and the less costly the mistakes have to be to the organization. kerr is already over a year into his job at the highest level in the organization. his mistakes, especially if they are continued mistakes, could devastate the organization. you don't give THAT guy a lot of leeway.

and i take everything into account before i "villify" him. contrary to what you might think, i am hopeful he ends up being brilliant. i WANT him to succeeed. hell, i hope i am WRONG about lopez (but don't think i'll be proven so). but thus far, the evidence is heavily weighted against steve.

You didn't seem to take into account the difficulty of the job. If you flip burgers for a year and suck at it, of course you are gone. Flipping burgers is easy, there are thousands of others who can flip better than you. But being GM of an NBA team is a bit more complicated. Over the hundred or so (let's just say) things Kerr has had to manage, if he makes 4 mistakes and it hasn't destroyed the business, I would like to see some leeway. He made decisions and probably not all on his own without consulting others on the staff and Sarver. Sometimes you swing and it's a miss, sometimes you connect. It's a difficult job, there aren't a shipload of qualified candidates, it costs money to fire and rehire.

 

[nowagimp]

"Upside" is a myth. Drafting for "upside" is a huge risk because it rarely works.

I dont know about that one: amare stoudemire, dwight howard, david west, tyson chandler, were all guys that were drafted with "upside", that is they werent ready skills wise to know how good they could be. As it turns out steve nash had a huge upside, at the time of his drafting, many didnt think his skills would translate to the NBA starting PG position, and he became the best PG in the NBA. Good teams draft some guys with upside, for example the pistons drafted amir johnson and maxiell for upside and stuckey as a more reliable producer. Dragic is an upside guy, he's not there yet, but someday he may be special. DJ was an upside guy, needing development to see what he can be. The suns have alot of upside guys: DJ, tucker, Dragic. The "safe" pick of lopez just balances things out as it should be. Its a good thing the suns got a guy who can produce and complement amare at the '5'. If the suns dont get help down there amare might just turn down his player option and leave. If the suns dont try to compete they likely cant even hold on to the talent they have.

 

[Mainstreet]

You know no one can defeat this statement. Very, very slippery.

However, I can offer a simple explanation that comes as close as any. The Suns have needed a veteran PG since Nash arrived in Phoenix. Early on Nash was largely able to carry the team. However, it now appears he has slowed somewhat this past season, but more importantly the teams know how to stop him. They just constantly double team him and use physical force (bumping and hacking him) to throw him off his game. He desperately needs another true PG to rest him or play beside him in stretches. If the Suns do not address this need for a veteran backup PG (like using LB or Strawberry again as his primary backup), this is where I see the Suns stumbling.

Irish you then said:

How did we go from saying it is impossible for the Suns to win to criticisming the Suns for not getting a veteran pG backup?

Well have you ever heard the quote from JLA? The Nail is a three-issue comic book mini-series published by DC Comics.

For want of a nail the shoe was lost,
for want of a shoe the horse was lost,
for want of a horse the knight was lost,
for want of a knight the battle was lost.
So it was a kingdom was lost - all for want of a nail.

Just substitute a backup PG for "nail" and I'm sure you will get the drift of how this issue could have deprived the Suns a Championship. The Suns would have played Banks as a backup PG if he had showed any ability in this area. D'Antoni gave him his chance. The lack of an adequate PG was the Suns' Achilles' heel.

 

[Irish]

This is just an off the wall question: who was the "real PG" that backed up Rondo on the Celtics in the playoffs?

Rajon Rondo - 4.1 apg
Cassell - 1.2 apg
House - 0.9 apg
Tony Allen -0.2 apg

or was it Pierce at 4.6 apg
--------------------------------------------------
Who was the PG on the 2005-06 Heat

Dwayne Wade 5.7 apg
Jason Williams 3.8 apg
Antoine Walker 2.4 apg
Gary Payton 1.7 apg
-------------------------------------------------
This years Pistons in the playoffs

Chauncy Billips 5.5 apg
Richard Hamilton 3.9 apg
Tayshaun Prince 3.2 apg

Rodney Stuckey 3.4 apg
Lindsay Hunter 0.9 apg
-------------------------------------------------
Who is the Suns backup PG? Here is the playoffs stats:

Nash 7.8 apg
Diaw 4.4 apg

If I didn't know better, I'd think Diaw was the Suns backup PG.

 

[arwillan]

The problem with the draft is not being able to predict the future. All players from the lottery ones to the second rounders are picked based on potential. Just because you were picked #1, doesn't mean you are the best player in the draft. There have been plenty lottery pick busts and draft steals. That is what makes the draft exciting because anybody can be anything. Gilbert Arenas, a second round 31st pick, is one of the most talented offensive PGs in the game. Nobody expected him to be in the top 5 in scoring.

Kwame Brown, a #1 lottery pick. Guess what, a bust.
Michael Olowakandi, a #1 lottery pick, a bust
Darko Milicic. a #1 first round pick, a complete bust

The list goes on.

Darko was actually a number 2 pick. just f.y.i.

 

[AZBALLER]

"Upside" is a myth.

ya, and Jordan won a title his first year in the league while the Suns demanded 3 first rounders for Nash, when they traded him...

 

[Irish]

Darko was actually a number 2 pick. just f.y.i.

Darko is not a total bust, just a guy with journeyman stats. But he's a perfect example of a guy who's "potential" was vastly overrated. If he'd been drafted in the 20's, his 0256 rebounds per minute would have been considered OK. But everyone loved his potential.

 

[Mainstreet]

This is just an off the wall question: who was the "real PG" that backed up Rondo on the Celtics in the playoffs?

Rajon Rondo - 4.1 apg
Cassell - 1.2 apg
House - 0.9 apg
Tony Allen -0.2 apg

or was it Pierce at 4.6 apg
--------------------------------------------------
Who was the PG on the 2005-06 Heat

Dwayne Wade 5.7 apg
Jason Williams 3.8 apg
Antoine Walker 2.4 apg
Gary Payton 1.7 apg
-------------------------------------------------
This years Pistons in the playoffs

Chauncy Billips 5.5 apg
Richard Hamilton 3.9 apg
Tayshaun Prince 3.2 apg

Rodney Stuckey 3.4 apg
Lindsay Hunter 0.9 apg
-------------------------------------------------
Who is the Suns backup PG? Here is the playoffs stats:

Nash 7.8 apg
Diaw 4.4 apg

If I didn't know better, I'd think Diaw was the Suns backup PG.

I'm really not sure what is your point. Being able to pass the ball is a function of a PG but being able to execute the team's offense is a different matter. If passing the ball a PG make, then Diaw would be a PG. However, as has been demonstrated, Diaw cannot effectively run the Suns offense when Nash sits down. I mean Alvin Adams could have been a PG if you are using apg as the only measure. I'm sure there are a lot of other players that can accumulate a number of assists but that doesn't mean they can run the offense. However, if you're trying to say a team needs good passers you are correct. Some teams with multiple passers can actually act as a backup PG when their starting PG is out of the lineup. Unfortunately no one has ever proven he can run the Suns offense when Nash sits since his return to Phoenix.

 

[Irish]

It's an old argument for me. Maybe, finally, they have a PG who can come to Phoenix and play just like Nash so the Suns don't have to come up with an offense that does not require Nash.

I simply disagree with trying. There is one Nash and only one. Nobody else plays like Steve. Every other PG in the NBA works in a system that has at least some structure. They have real plays and do not require the PG to do ALL the playmaking.

Remember back when the Kings were one of the top offensive teams in the NBA? With the Kings, Bibby had only one season where he averaged more than 6.0 assists per game. In 2001-02 he averaged 5.0 assists per game in 33.2 minutes a game on a team that won 62 games. Their team averaged 23.9 assists per game because everybody had assists:

Webber - 4.8
Peja 2.5
Christie 4.2
Divac 3.7

Their backup PG was Bobby Jackson who averaged only 2.0 in 21.6 minutes.

My point is that their offense was not built around having a do everything PG. I'm not suggesting running that style when Nash is in the lineup. I'd like them to develop an approach that works for the kind of people the Suns have (or reasonably can expect to have). In any case, the bizzare part about this subject is that there has not been a championhip team which had a dominant distributor PG in a very long time.

Rondo averaged 5.1 apg this year, up to 6.6 apg in the playoffs, but Pearce led the team

Parker is a shoot first PG who averaged 5.5 apg in 2006-07 in their last championship. He averages 5.5 apg for his career and just 6.0 apg this year.

Billips averaged 6.8 apg this season. He's had more assists under Sanders, but won the championship with under 6 apg.

Lakers won three championships with Kobe as their top assist man.

Heat won a chamionship with Wade their top assist man at 7.5 while Williams averaged 5.5 apg.

Bulls in the last three years, Pippen lead the team except for one year Jordan had the most assists.

Teams with great PG'S have been able to get to the finals (KJ and Nash for example), but the winners have tended to be defense oriented shooters rather than distributors. I don't know what it means for the Suns, but I'm encouraged that Dragic is a long guy who can play defense.

 

[Joe Mama]

The offense just needs to become far less reliant on Steve Nash altogether. On any given night one or two of our frontcourt players are going to have a distinct advantage in the post. It would be great to have a backup point guard who can create a shot for himself or one of his teammates on the shot clock is winding down, but a subtle shift in the offensive philosophy will do wonders when Steve Nash is not on the court IMO.

Joe

 

[nowagimp]

Teams with great PG'S have been able to get to the finals (KJ and Nash for example), but the winners have tended to be defense oriented shooters rather than distributors. I don't know what it means for the Suns, but I'm encouraged that Dragic is a long guy who can play defense.

During the jordan era, several teams with very good PG's didnt win, but what does that mean? the jazz were thin in low post players and bench depth and KJ was injured frequently. KJ(once) and stockton(twice) didnt win against MJ's bulls, wouldnt losses against MJ's bulls as a general rule. Before jordan, isiah thomas, magic, mo cheeks were all great pass first PG's and champions. Since that era PG's have become combo guards, there were almost no shoot first PG's except stockton. Its no suprise that great shoot first PG's havent won, there werent any after the jordan era till nash. Contracts were negotiated based on scoring so being a pass first PG was financially punished. Teams can run their offense through a big man like TD, or divacs, but the big man must be able to take care of the ball, have low TO's, not many big men like that. The pistons use an elaborate series of screens and lots of motion off the ball to free up shooters, the screens and motion create the offense(not the PG), but the pistons arent a good offensive team, it has been their downfall in recent years in the playoffs. General rules for winning championships are difficult to discern with so few teams winning over the last 25 years.

 

[Chaplin]

I dont know about that one: amare stoudemire, dwight howard, david west, tyson chandler, were all guys that were drafted with "upside", that is they werent ready skills wise to know how good they could be. As it turns out steve nash had a huge upside, at the time of his drafting, many didnt think his skills would translate to the NBA starting PG position, and he became the best PG in the NBA. Good teams draft some guys with upside, for example the pistons drafted amir johnson and maxiell for upside and stuckey as a more reliable producer. Dragic is an upside guy, he's not there yet, but someday he may be special. DJ was an upside guy, needing development to see what he can be. The suns have alot of upside guys: DJ, tucker, Dragic. The "safe" pick of lopez just balances things out as it should be. Its a good thing the suns got a guy who can produce and complement amare at the '5'. If the suns dont get help down there amare might just turn down his player option and leave. If the suns dont try to compete they likely cant even hold on to the talent they have.

You list 4 guys, and Amare wasn't drafted for upside, he contributed right away. Chandler and West? Yes. That's why I said it "rarely" works, not that it never works.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I dont know about that one: amare stoudemire, dwight howard, david west, tyson chandler, were all guys that were drafted with "upside", that is they werent ready skills wise to know how good they could be. As it turns out steve nash had a huge upside, at the time of his drafting, many didnt think his skills would translate to the NBA starting PG position, and he became the best PG in the NBA. Good teams draft some guys with upside, for example the pistons drafted amir johnson and maxiell for upside and stuckey as a more reliable producer. Dragic is an upside guy, he's not there yet, but someday he may be special. DJ was an upside guy, needing development to see what he can be. The suns have alot of upside guys: DJ, tucker, Dragic. QUOTE]

i agree with this portion of your post 100%. the "non-upside" guy in the dwight howard draft was okafor. he had the skills and had "proven" himself in college. dwight was raw with considerable "upside." for you not to recognize that "upside" DEFINITELY exists and can make-or-break a franchise on occasion (do you think the magic and bobcats would be where they are, respectively, if those players had be swapped from the onset?), then you're just refusing to see the truth for the sake of disagreeing.

 

[mojorizen7]

Unfortunately no one has ever proven he can run D'Antoni's offense when Nash sits since his return to Phoenix.

FTFY

 

[Chaplin]

i agree with this portion of your post 100%. the "non-upside" guy in the dwight howard draft was okafor. he had the skills and had "proven" himself in college. dwight was raw with considerable "upside." for you not to recognize that "upside" DEFINITELY exists and can make-or-break a franchise on occasion (do you think the magic and bobcats would be where they are, respectively, if those players had be swapped from the onset?), then you're just refusing to see the truth for the sake of disagreeing.

Please stop trying to be so insulting. You have your opinion and I have mine, can't you just leave it at that?

When did I say "upside" doesn't exist? Time to re-read some posts. I said drafting for upside rarely works. And that's true. I NEVER said it never works.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You list 4 guys, and Amare wasn't drafted for upside, he contributed right away. Chandler and West? Yes. That's why I said it "rarely" works, not that it never works.

i believe you are wrong if you don't think amare was drafted for his upside. his skillset was extremely limited coming out. just because he "contributed right away" doesn't mean that he was fully developed or that anyone expected those contributions immediately. nor does it speak to how quickly he ended up meeting his upside. i don't understand how you cannot see this

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Please stop trying to be so insulting. You have your opinion and I have mine, can't you just leave it at that?

When did I say "upside" doesn't exist? Time to re-read some posts. I said drafting for upside rarely works. And that's true. I NEVER said it never works.

first, i'm sorry if that came off as insulting. i don't mean to insult you chap. i really don't.

second, you said "upside is a myth." how is that no saying it doesn't exist? isn't calling something a myth implying that it doesn't exist???

 

[Chaplin]

you are outta your mind if you don't think amare was drafted for his upside. his skillset was extremely limited coming out. just because he "contributed right away" doesn't mean that he was fully developed or that anyone expected those contributions immediately. nor does it speak to how quickly he ended up meeting his upside. again, to deny that amare was drafted based on his upside is ridiculous.

Ok, let's say I concede that Amare was drafted for "upside". It's easy to point out the successes, but look at all the failures: Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic, Nikiloz Tchikitschvili, Jake Tsakalidis... the list goes on and on. For every Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire, there are 5 guys that go nowhere.

 

[Chaplin]

first, i'm sorry if that came off as insulting. i don't mean to insult you chap. i really don't.

second, you said "upside is a myth." how is that no saying it doesn't exist? isn't calling something a myth implying that it doesn't exist???

You're right. My wording was bad. It was more about the concept of upside being a myth rather than the reasoning. People draft for upside all the time, but it rarely turns out the way teams were expecting/hoping.