Good draft for Suns

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Ok, let's say I concede that Amare was drafted for "upside". It's easy to point out the successes, but look at all the failures: Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic, Nikiloz Tchikitschvili, Jake Tsakalidis... the list goes on and on. For every Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire, there are 5 guys that go nowhere.

oh, i agree that drafting for the upside comes with a bigger downside as well. there's no doubt about that. my point is that you have a greater chance at a homerun with one of the upside guys than you do with one of the safe guys. again, you have to buy into the thought that we're rebuilding to adopt my philosophy - if the window's shut, and you're rebuilding, you're doing so for a time post-nash and shaq which means you have to swing for the fences to get a superstar to place alongside amare otherwise you risk being mired in mediocrity or worse, which also risks losing amare (imo). you don't convince amare to stay with varajeos of the world. you convince him to stay with the mcgradys, dwight howards, kobe bryants - guys that had high upsides.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You're right. My wording was bad. It was more about the concept of upside being a myth rather than the reasoning. People draft for upside all the time, but it rarely turns out the way teams were expecting/hoping.

see, i'm at least realistic enough to recognize that when drafting for upside you can't really have "expectations," but rather you have to have "hopes." i think there's a wide chasm between the two. if my team takes a flyer on potential and comes up empty i say, "well, we took a chance. we hoped he would rise to greatness and he didn't. we recognized that could happen." if my team drafts a "safe" guy i say, "he better produce within in his limited safe range. i have expectations for this guy b/c i passed on the upside guy." so if the "safe" guy fails it's almost a greater failure.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

btw, when i said "i'm at least realistic" i wasn't comparing myself to you, chap. rather i was just saying that i'm being realistic in not having expectations about upside guys.

 

[nowagimp]

You list 4 guys, and Amare wasn't drafted for upside, he contributed right away. Chandler and West? Yes. That's why I said it "rarely" works, not that it never works.

So you think there are only 4? OK another sample is in order: Bynum, Al jefferson, inguodala, Noah, Richard Jefferson, josh howard, Gerald wallace. These guys have nearly tripled their effectiveness from their rookie seasons. Upside doesnt mean not being able to contribute, but jefferson was 9.4ppg @ 45% FG's to almost 23ppg last year and a stopper defender. Thats upside, jefferson even increased his FT% by ~10%. Jefferson couldnt even shoot well as a rookie(23% 3 pt), but he shot 36% 3 pters last year. Josh howards numbers are similar, and tayshaun prince had 3ppg his rookie year. There are many more cases of upside in the NBA like monta ellis(6.8ppg%41% FG's to 20ppg and 53% FG's). Look around, upside guys are all over the NBA, its not so rare as you make it out to be.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So you think there are only 4? OK another sample is in order: Bynum, Al jefferson, inguodala, Noah, Richard Jefferson, josh howard, Gerald wallace. These guys have nearly tripled their effectiveness from their rookie seasons. Upside doesnt mean not being able to contribute, but jefferson was 9.4ppg @ 45% FG's to almost 23ppg last year and a stopper defender. Thats upside, jefferson even increased his FT% by ~10%. Jefferson couldnt even shoot well as a rookie(23% 3 pt), but he shot 36% 3 pters last year. Josh howards numbers are similar, and tayshaun prince had 3ppg his rookie year. There are many more cases of upside in the NBA like monta ellis(6.8ppg%41% FG's to 20ppg and 53% FG's). Look around, upside guys are all over the NBA, its not so rare as you make it out to be.

and furthermore, and more to my point, the upside guys are usually the guys most likely to become superstars.

yes, i'll concede, there are some guys were who always safe to assume that they'd become superstars (the shaqs, duncans, pennys, roses, durants, odens, lebrons, and wades). but the mcgradys, the jeffersons, the howards, the amares, boshs, parkers, nashs, kobes, rashard lewises, joe johnsons of the world were all upside guys.

who do you want, the kobes or the rips of the world? rip was considered "safe" and kobe the gamble. could kobe have become a telfair? sure. more likely so than rip. but rip could never become a kobe.

 

[nowagimp]

and furthermore, and more to my point, the upside guys are usually the guys most likely to become superstars.

yes, i'll concede, there are some guys were who always safe to assume that they'd become superstars (the shaqs, duncans, pennys, roses, durants, odens, lebrons, and wades). but the mcgradys, the jeffersons, the howards, the amares, boshs, parkers, nashs, kobes, rashard lewises, joe johnsons of the world were all upside guys.

who do you want, the kobes or the rips of the world? rip was considered "safe" and kobe the gamble. could kobe have become a telfair? sure. more likely so than rip. but rip could never become a kobe.

Ouchie I agree that upside guys are an essential part of the NBA team building process. But, depending on too many upside guys will get you in the cellar position. The suns dont have many good picks coming up, and they have been getting robbed in trades, so a safe backup big to keep amare from being targeted is a good strategy. IF the suns dont protect amare from being the target when shaq sits, he will just leave when his option year comes due. Great players dont want to play on a rebuilding team. Not only with FA's laugh at you, but your best guys will be looking for a way out to a contender. Hopefully dragic and DJ will be upside guys, they are both good defensively already. I think DJ will have his chance with porter and porter will see to it that he is instructed in the ways of NBA guardplay. If that doesnt work when nash and shaqs contracts expire, the suns can steal someone elses "developed" upside guys.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Ouchie I agree that upside guys are an essential part of the NBA team building process. But, depending on too many upside guys will get you in the cellar position. The suns dont have many good picks coming up, and they have been getting robbed in trades, so a safe backup big to keep amare from being targeted is a good strategy. IF the suns dont protect amare from being the target when shaq sits, he will just leave when his option year comes due. Great players dont want to play on a rebuilding team. Not only with FA's laugh at you, but your best guys will be looking for a way out to a contender. Hopefully dragic and DJ will be upside guys, they are both good defensively already. I think DJ will have his chance with porter and porter will see to it that he is instructed in the ways of NBA guardplay. If that doesnt work when nash and shaqs contracts expire, the suns can steal someone elses "developed" upside guys.

i don't necessarily disagree with what you are saying, but the best analogy i can make is the cavs. it seems that the cavs have continued to surround lebron with "safe" type guys (boobie gibson, varejeo, luke jackson, jason kapono, etc.). these guys either weren't impact players or failed to even reach their "safe" potential - luuuuuke. and does anyone think as a result he's staying in cleveland? no way. they haven't gotten him a super runningmate to convince that he can win there. now i'll also concede that the one time (and really only ONE time) that they took a flyer (albeit prior to landing king james) it didn't work out (wagner), but if that choice had paid off on it's potential then i'll be willing to bet that bron would be much more content in cleveland (mind you, MORE content, not definitely staying - i get the jayzee thing).

 

[AzStevenCal]

i don't necessarily disagree with what you are saying, but the best analogy i can make is the cavs. it seems that the cavs have continued to surround lebron with "safe" type guys (boobie gibson, varejeo, luke jackson, jason kapono, etc.). these guys either weren't impact players or failed to even reach their "safe" potential - luuuuuke. and does anyone think as a result he's staying in cleveland? no way. they haven't gotten him a super runningmate to convince that he can win there. now i'll also concede that the one time (and really only ONE time) that they took a flyer (albeit prior to landing king james) it didn't work out (wagner), but if that choice had paid off on it's potential then i'll be willing to bet that bron would be much more content in cleveland (mind you, MORE content, not definitely staying - i get the jayzee thing).

Well, I certainly wouldn't put Luke Jackson in the same group with Varejeo. That aside, we're all over the map with "upside" to the point where you could reasonably apply that label to every college player and most foreign players too. For me, I tend to consider an "upside" player as one whose ceiling is considerably higher than they have currently shown at whatever level they are playing. But even my definition leaves a lot of wiggle room. Maybe it's like the Porn quote - I don't know what porn is but I know it when I see it.

Steve

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Well, I certainly wouldn't put Luke Jackson in the same group with Varejeo. That aside, we're all over the map with "upside" to the point where you could reasonably apply that label to every college player and most foreign players too. For me, I tend to consider an "upside" player as one whose ceiling is considerably higher than they have currently shown at whatever level they are playing. But even my definition leaves a lot of wiggle room. Maybe it's like the Porn quote - I don't know what porn is but I know it when I see it.

Steve

agreed.

 

[Irish]

Let's go back and think about what gives somebody "upside".

1. Physical - athletic, strong, size

2. Ability to learn

What goes against upside

1. Developed skills

2. Age (old is bad)

So why don't Tucker and Strwaberry have any upside? They are too old and apparently too many skills. But mostly they are old.

Undeveloped young athletic young guys by definition have "potential", but we need a lot more than that to say if they have a good chance of reaching their potential.

 

[pokerface]

Let's go back and think about what gives somebody "upside".

Lets go back further and look at the original point of this thread.


Was it a good draft? Yes. Why? Because we drafted a athletic center and a point guard...positions we needed to fill. We didnt sell the pick or trade it away...something for the average fan to grab on to.

I see nothing in this thread to make me down on this draft.

 

[Irish]

It may be the Suns upside is getting closer. There is a real chance Drajic might be here this year after all.

http://thehoop.blogspot.com/2008/07/one-big-mess-with-goran-dragic.html