Deandre Ayton and Rookie expectations

Discussion in 'Phoenix Suns' started by Yuma, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. Hoop Head

    Hoop Head Señor Caca Cabeza Contributor

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    They are very different players. Think back a few years with Embiid. If his health didn't knock him down a few spots, he would have been the #1 pick. Even still, I bet the Timberwolves would rather have him than Wiggins. Wiggins made an impact right away but does that matter when the big is someone you can build a title contender around when they hit their prime? Will Wiggins ever be a part of a title team? I know Ayton and Doncic are different but the point still stands, franchise bigs are more valuable than franchise wings. They take a little longer to pan out but if they do, you are vaulted into contention because of them. The odds of a wing alone leading you to the playoffs or to compete for a title? Not happening.

    Unless there is a health issue, you always take the big over the wing. Even if there is health concerns, you weight those carefully before making the call. That's why Oden went before Durant. People knew KD would be really good, probably not an MVP but Oden was projected to be one of the best defensive bigs ever. Until news came out about how bad Oden's knees were, Portland got a pass for taking him when KD was scoring 20+ ppg as a rookie.

    Ayton doesn't have Oden or Embiid's health issues. He's not seen as good as them defensively but almost all the analysts predicted him to be better offensively. There's a reason he was compared to Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem. He could go down as the one of the greats if he's healthy and improves as projected.
     
  2. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    I tend to be an anti-homer, so allow me to explain my position.

    I agree that doncic has “it.” And he already has it. Which means he’s less of a risk. And I don’t think he’s near his ceiling as others argue. I think he’ll be a top 5-10 player in the league at his peak. That’s lofty status. But due to his relative physical limitations (again saying relative, not that he’s not athletic), I believe with the right guy you might be able to bother his game just enough to overcome the mavs if they are only modestly successful in surrounding him with talent. In fact, I could see he and bridges having epic offense/defense battles for years if bridges continues to develop (he’s pretty advanced defensively already too).

    On the other hand, Ayton put up some numbers that (a) none of us predicted; and (b) have some historical significance. And many of us were still disappointed because we could see the hint of what he could be. Couple that with the fact that (a) he cane to basketball later than most stars; and (b) most bigs take time to develop, and his upside is potentially astronomical. As in, rare will be the occasion when he faces a player capable of battling him. Now understand I’m certainly not all candy canes and rainbows. It means Ayton finding some nasty, making good in all the talk about learning, and his maximizing his potential.

    I think Ayton hitting his peak is much less likely than doncic hitting his. But I think if they both do Ayton has the greater chance of bringing a championship.

    Also if note, we are the suns. I don’t have much faith in Sarver and crew identifying and effectively adding the cast needed to support a peak doncic while I believe a peak Ayton doesn’t need as great support. So in the unlikely event they both reach their peak I don’t have to rely on Sarver as much.
     
  3. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    They are six months apart in age. Doncic has significantly more experience than Ayton. Its fine to prefer Doncic if you like, but prefering the 7-1 Adonis, with skills is not silly.
     
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  4. slinslin

    slinslin Welcome to Amareca

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    But did he?

    He has a negative net rating (net +-), his team performed better when he was on the bench AND the Mavs were 5-3 when Doncic did not play at all.

    Also Aytons raw stat line was better.
     
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  5. AzStevenCal

    AzStevenCal ASFN Contributor Contributor

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    I've said this before but I believe Luka gets more favorable press than he deserves and less negative attention than his play sometimes warranted and the reverse has been true of Ayton. But having said that and even with your stats on Doncic, it's also true he repeatedly came up huge in big moments like we've never seen from a rookie. I think he's special and going to get better. I just think Ayton will improve even more and while he may never match Luka's killer instinct and sense of the moment, Doncic will never have Deandre's size, quickness, athleticism or physical strength in a game that rewards all four of those attributes.
     
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  6. Yuma

    Yuma Passed my 90 days! Thanks BigRedRage!

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    Smaller guys who have the rock more, get better votes in the ROY and MVP voting. Guys who need to be fed the ball like Ayton do worse. I've seen a couple shows where ex-NBA players point this out. More bias on the guy who is the creator versus the big men finishers. That said Doncic earned ROY. Historically, Ayton measures well for his first year compared to former NBA greats.
     
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  7. Ronin

    Ronin Registered

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  8. Yuma

    Yuma Passed my 90 days! Thanks BigRedRage!

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    Super Sweet! First team. Pretty much lead by three guys according to points. Maybe the Luka Doncic ROY not locked looking at the points Trae garnered?
     
  9. TJ

    TJ Suge White

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    Whoever voted Ayton second team should be castrated with a dull, rusty spoon.
     
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  10. 95pro

    95pro Registered

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    I looked at the votes too, and was like who else is going to be first team instead of Ayton.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2019
  11. itlnsunsfan

    itlnsunsfan Registered

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    Mitchell Robinson I'd imagine.
     
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  12. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    No look at the guys on the second team garnering first team votes. Like SGA.
     
  13. Raindog

    Raindog Registered

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    Dallas pretty much ran their whole offense through Doncic for about three quarters of the season. It's not really surprising he put up the best numbers of any rookie. Meanwhile, Ayton spent half of his playing time setting screens at the three point line and generally floundering around in Igor's clueless offensive sets.

    I will give Doncic props for being more mentally mature and ready for the NBA, however. But that should also be somewhat expected given he had already been playing for years in a professional league with more mature competition than any of the other rookies.
     
  14. GatorAZ

    GatorAZ Formerly known as GatorHater

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    Should’ve been a Sun.
     
  15. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    I think we are going to love us some bridges over the years, but yes he would’ve solved one major hope for us likely. I was high on him.
     

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