2014 Arizona Cardinals Over/Unders

[kerouac9]

A tradition like no other. As always, these are not my predictions, they're just estimations I hope will force you to make difficult choices if you're interested in being right about things.

Offense First:

Carson Palmer

13.5 starts
4200 yards
24 TDs
16 INTs
4.5 fumbles
​

Andre Ellington

800 rushing yards
6 rushing TDs
30 receptions
350 receiving yards
3 receiving TDs
4.5 YPC​

Jonathan Dwyer

300 rushing yards
3 rushing TDs
3.8 YPC​

Stepfan Taylor

250 rushing yards
2 rushing TDs
3.5 YPC​

Larry Fitzgerald

85 receptions
1100 yards
9.5 TDs
0.5 dropped passes​

Michael Floyd

80 receptions
1250 yards
8.5 TDs​

John Brown

45 receptions
800 yards
3.5 TDs​

Ted Ginn, Jr.

25 receptions
300 yards
2.5 receiving TDs

10.5 yards per punt return
1.5 punt return TDs

17.5 yards per kick return
0.5 kick return TDs​

John Carlson

60 receptions
650 yards
3.5 TDs​

Rob Housler

30 receptions
500 yards
1.5 TDs​

 

[crisper57]

My picks.

Carson Palmer

13.5 starts OVER
4200 yards OVER
24 TDs OVER
16 INTs UNDER
4.5 fumbles UNDER
​

Andre Ellington

800 rushing yards UNDER
6 rushing TDs UNDER
30 receptions PUSH
3 receiving TDs OVER
4.5 YPC​

OVER

Jonathan Dwyer

300 rushing yards UNDER
3 rushing TDs UNDER
3.8 YPC​

UNDER

Stepfan Taylor

250 rushing yards UNDER
2 rushing TDs UNDER
3.5 YPC​

UNDER

Larry Fitzgerald

85 receptions UNDER
1100 yards UNDER
9.5 TDs UNDER
0.5 dropped passes​

UNDER

Michael Floyd

80 receptions OVER
1250 yards OVER
8.5 TDs​

OVER

John Brown

45 receptions OVER
800 yards OVER
3.5 TDs​

OVER

Ted Ginn, Jr.

25 receptions UNDER
300 yards OVER
2.5 receiving TDs UNDER

10.5 yards per punt return OVER
1.5 punt return TDs UNDER

17.5 yards per kick return UNDER
0.5 kick return TDs​

UNDER

John Carlson

60 receptions UNDER
650 yards UNDER
3.5 TDs​

UNDER

Rob Housler

30 receptions UNDER
500 yards UNDER
1.5 TDs UNDER​

 

[82CardsGrad]

Finally!

A tradition like no other. As always, these are not my predictions, they're just estimations I hope will force you to make difficult choices if you're interested in being right about things.

Offense First:

Carson Palmer

13.5 starts - Over
4200 yards - Over
24 TDs - Over
16 INTs - Under
4.5 fumbles - Under
​

Andre Ellington

800 rushing yards - Under
6 rushing TDs - Under
30 receptions - Over
3 receiving TDs - Over
4.5 YPC - Under
​

Jonathan Dwyer

300 rushing yards - Over
3 rushing TDs - Over
3.8 YPC - Over
​

Stepfan Taylor

250 rushing yards - Under
2 rushing TDs - Over
3.5 YPC - Under
​

Larry Fitzgerald

85 receptions - Over
1100 yards - Over
9.5 TDs - Over
0.5 dropped passes - Over
​

Michael Floyd

80 receptions - Over
1250 yards - Over
8.5 TDs - Under
​

John Brown

45 receptions - Under
800 yards - Under
3.5 TDs - Under
​

Ted Ginn, Jr.

25 receptions - Over
300 yards - Over
2.5 receiving TDs - Over

10.5 yards per punt return - Under
1.5 punt return TDs - Under

17.5 yards per kick return - Under
0.5 kick return TDs - Under
​

John Carlson

60 receptions - Over
650 yards - Over
3.5 TDs - Over
​

Rob Housler

30 receptions - Under
500 yards - Under
1.5 TDs - Under
​

 

[kerouac9]

Sorry, crisper and 82. I forgot to put in Ellington receiving yards.

 

[crisper57]

Sorry, crisper and 82. I forgot to put in Ellington receiving yards.

OVER

 

[82CardsGrad]

OVER

 

[kerouac9]

Defensive Over/Unders

Calais Campbell
7.5 sacks

Dan Williams
1.5 sacks

Frostee Rucker
2.5 sacks

Tommy Kelly
1.0 sacks

John Abraham
7.5 sacks

Matt Shaugnessy
5.5 sacks

Sam Acho
5.5 starts
3.5 sacks

Kevin Minter
10.5 starts
85 tackles
2.5 sacks
0.5 INTs
4.5 passes defensed

Larry Foote
12.5 starts
60 tackles
2.5 sacks
0.5 INTs
4.5 passes defensed

Desmond Bishop
5.5 starts
40 tackles
1.5 sacks
0.5 INTs

Patrick Peterson
2.5 INTs

Antonio Cromartie
5.5 INTs

Jerraud Powers
3.5 starts
1.5 INTs

Tyrann Matthieu
11.5 starts
35 tackles
2.5 INTs
1.5 fumbles forced

Deone Buccannon
9.5 starts
40 tackles
2.5 INTs

Rashad Johnson
12.5 starts
2.5 INTs

 

[kerouac9]

Is everyone so bearish on Andre Ellington as a rusher? 800 yards is only 50 rushing yards a game. Are the Cards just not going to run the ball at all?

 

[crisper57]

Is everyone so bearish on Andre Ellington as a rusher? 800 yards is only 50 rushing yards a game. Are the Cards just not going to run the ball at all?

That is my thought. With all those weapons on the outside, he won't need to run very much.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Is everyone so bearish on Andre Ellington as a rusher? 800 yards is only 50 rushing yards a game. Are the Cards just not going to run the ball at all?

Couple of reasons for me:

- I think his touches via run attempts will be kept down due to the increase in his touches via the passing game

- I think Dwyer will see a good amount of action in the run game

- I think our defense will be tested to the point where we could end up having to score more = more passing attempts

- I am very little confidence at this stage in the effectiveness of our run game

 

[kerouac9]

Unit and Season Over/Unders

Wins: 7.5

Offense (yardage): 12.5
Offense (scoring): 10.5

Defense (yardage): 12.5
Defense (scoring): 9.5

 

[kerouac9]

Hrm... No traction on this thread this year? I wonder if a lot of you guys just don't want to jinx what feels like a very precarious optimism by weighing in with your own predictions.

Wins: 7.5 - OVER. I think this is probably an 8- or 9-win team. The schedule is harder this year, and I think we're going to have matchup problems with the NFC East that will make us underperform against them in a way that the rest of the division might not.

Offense (yardage): 12.5 - UNDER. This is a hard one for me, because I think we'll be somewhere between 12th and 10th. I think there's a steep dropoff from the top 5 NFL offenses and everyone else. It's hard for me to figure out where we'll land.
Offense (scoring): 10.5 - UNDER. I think that Palmer will be able to protect the ball better this year, but I don't think we'll be able to cash in enough opportunities to become a top 10 scoring offense.

Defense (yardage): 12.5 - Over. Top 8-10 would be a dropoff from last year, but I think that we're very quietly transitioning from a run defense that's focused on two stars to one that's more along the Seahawks model of a bunch of average to above-average veterans in a heavy rotation to keep everyone fresh.
Defense (scoring): 9.5 - Under. We were 7th in the NFL in scoring defense last year against a pretty soft schedule. We're not as talented a defense, so there's going to be a dropoff.

Carson Palmer

13.5 starts - Over. I think that Palmer's 16 starts last year were an aberration, particularly considering how often he got hit. I think he'll start 14 games. I think it would take Matt Schaub-levels of incompetence to get him out of the starting lineup when the alternative is Drew Stanton.
4200 yards - Over. I hope the pass defense prevents teams from racking up big leads, which means we could be in shootouts where Palmer will be throwing for yards.
24 TDs - Over. Lacking a strong short-area back, and having big options in the passing game, I expect 28-35 TDs.
16 INTs - Over. Unfortunately, I don't think that Palmer is going to break his propsensity to mis-diagnose the opponent's jersey as his own. I think the difference between a wild card spot and home again in January is going to be 15 vs. 18 INTs.
4.5 fumbles - Under. But just.
​

Andre Ellington

800 rushing yards - Over. C'mon, guys. It's not that hard to rush for 1000 yards in the NFL anymore. 13 starting running backs did it last season. Anything less than 1100 rushing yards from Ellington should be considered a disappointment.
6 rushing TDs - Over. There were more RBs with 6+ rushing TDs than there were 1000 yard rushers last year. I think that Ellington will have 3 rushing TDs of 10 yards or more, and then will have at least 4 more from inside the red zone.
30 receptions - Over, way over. I set this line way too low. 50 receptions would have been a better number.
350 receiving yards - Over
3 receiving TDs - Over, but I think it'll be close.
4.5 YPC - Under. It's hard to maintain that kind of momentum when you're on the field in more obvious running situations.​

Jonathan Dwyer

300 rushing yards - Over, but probably not by much.
3 rushing TDs - Push.
3.8 YPC - Under.​

Stepfan Taylor

250 rushing yards - Over. Earn your spot, young man!
2 rushing TDs - Over!
3.5 YPC - Over! Stepfan Taylor is the new Jim Dray. I'm gonna be sad if he gets cut tomorrow.​

Larry Fitzgerald

85 receptions - Over. Palmer and Arians are going to continue to force the ball to Fitzgerald.
1100 yards - Under.
9.5 TDs - Under. A more explosive offense is going to reduce the opportunity for Fitz to get cheapie red-zone TDs. I think that Floyd and Carlson are going to nab 3 or 4 of these.
0.5 dropped passes - Under. ​

Michael Floyd

80 receptions - Over
1250 yards - Over
8.5 TDs - Over​

John Brown

45 receptions - Over. Did you know that Andre Roberts had 43 receptions last year?
800 yards - Under. Welcome to the NFL, youngin.
3.5 TDs - Under. No, OVER.​

Ted Ginn, Jr.

25 receptions - Under
300 yards - Over
2.5 receiving TDs - Under

10.5 yards per punt return - Over
1.5 punt return TDs - Over

17.5 yards per kick return - Over
0.5 kick return TDs - Under​

John Carlson

60 receptions - Over.
650 yards - Over
3.5 TDs - Over. I think we're going to see how much Jim Dray and Rob Housler hobbled the offense last year.​

Rob Housler

30 receptions - Over
500 yards - Under
1.5 TDs - Over​

Calais Campbell
7.5 sacks - Over. I think that a solid DL rotation is going to boost Campbell's production to pro bowl levels. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get 10+ sacks.

Dan Williams
1.5 sacks - Over. Contract year

Frostee Rucker
2.5 sacks - Over.

Tommy Kelly
1.0 sacks - Over

John Abraham
7.5 sacks - Over

Matt Shaugnessy
5.5 sacks - Under

Sam Acho
5.5 starts - Over, but mostly because there's no one else.
3.5 sacks - Over.

Kevin Minter
10.5 starts - Under. He'll get every chance to compete, but he hasn't shown the ability to compete much so far.
85 tackles - Under.
2.5 sacks - Over.
0.5 INTs - Under.
4.5 passes defensed - Over.

Larry Foote
12.5 starts - Over
60 tackles - Over
2.5 sacks - Under
0.5 INTs - Under
4.5 passes defensed - Under

Desmond Bishop - It's increasingly becoming clear that Bishop isn't going to make the initial 53-man roster. If Minter is going to be healthy enough to play Week 1, I anticipate that the Cards are going to cut and re-sign Bishop at a time when his salary will not be completely guaranteed.
5.5 starts
40 tackles
1.5 sacks
0.5 INTs

Patrick Peterson
2.5 INTs - Over. I expect that Peterson is going to get 3 INTs in the first 2 weeks of the season and then teams will stop throwing in his direction altogether.

Antonio Cromartie
5.5 INTs - Over. Cromartie has built a career on gobbling up the additional targets that come from playing across from an elite cornerback.

Jerraud Powers
3.5 starts - Over, but just barely.
1.5 INTs - Under

Tyrann Matthieu
11.5 starts - Under, I certainly hope.
35 tackles - Over.
2.5 INTs - Over
1.5 fumbles forced - Over

Deone Buccannon
9.5 starts - Under
40 tackles - Under
2.5 INTs - Under

Rashad Johnson
12.5 starts - Under.
2.5 INTs - Over

 

[Shaggy]

I'll add my Over Unders just before the first game.