You don’t need a great QB to win a championship. You need a great defense.
15 thoughts - draft
- Thread starter Gandhi
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You don’t need a great QB to win a championship. You need a great defense.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
How has that been working out for you and us? The Cards are 19-49 under Monti’s leadership and he’s had three top-five picks to use.
That’s resulted in a red-chip offensive tackle, a wide receiver averaging 51 yards per game, and a running back that no one thinks is gonna move the needle in the win column.
You don’t get better by losing on purpose.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Just a point of order here. The Falcons were 7th in the NFL in rushing last year. They were 10th in YPA.
Don’t get fooled by fantasy points and highlight videos.
This goes without being said, but you have to actually hit your picks.
And you need a QB. And good/decent coaching.
We had neither last season or while Monti was here. Yes, we all know Monti sucks too.
Next year IS the QB pick, unless Beck is somehow him. Good QB can make others around them look better. Until then, it doesn't matter.
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kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
We have an “there’s always next year” two months before camp opens. Just wonderful.
So we don't need a QB to compete, got it. I hope we have Jacoby's and Kyler's, Skelton's, and Hall's forever and ever. Just build around 'em, duh!
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
My man the last five Super Bowl winners were Sam Darnold (fifth team), Jalen Hurts (second round), Pat Mahomes (10th overall, KC traded up from 27th overall), and Stafford (traded for).
No one is coming to save us
Wow! Yes, they all had solid teams that hit picks, already said that. Darnold was a top pick. Mahomes wasn't falling. Stafford also high pick. Of course QB isn't a 1 man team, but they sure are important.
And a 6th round pick won 7 Superbowls! We should make sure to pick our QBotF then too.
I'll take better odds at higher pick.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
No one has been able to show me a model of an NFL franchise that has tanked its way to success
Dude, in another thread you argue that it’s all about individual achievements to determine if Jereymiah Love was a good pick, while here you argue that it is about team success if a quarterback is a worthwhile pick. Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold didn’t even play great in the seasons where they won the Super Bowl. Choose. This way is hypocrisy.
Everything I explain to you here is from 2011-2025.
Franchise QB hit-rate among QB’s drafted in top 10 is between 40-44%, while that number is less than 20% for QB’s drafted between #11-#32.
A franchise QB is here defined by getting a huge second contract (with the team that drafted them). 80+ starts, 4000+ yards passing or 30+ touchdowns in a season, starting 75% of a team’s offensive snaps in a four year-span.
65% of quarterbacks drafted in top 10 get a big second contract with the team drafting them, while about 35% drafted in the rest of round 1 does that.
47% of quarterbacks selected in the top 10 have started more than 80 games for the team drafting them, while that number falls to 35% for quarterbacks in the rest of round 1.
About 60% of quarterbacks drafted in top 10 have gone to at least one Pro Bowl, while the number is 33% for quarterbacks drafted in the rest of round 1.
Pro Bowl is obviously a bit fishy, but QB’s chosen in the top 10 have 8-12% chance of becoming 1st team All-Pro. That number is less than 2% for QB’s drafted in the rest of round 1.
And lastly, let’s include your focus on team success in the calculations. Pro Football-Reference has a metric called “Approximate Value” for a quarterback. It shows how good he is in one number. That number is found through a combination of team offensive success, personal share in that success and recognition for that success (All-Pro’s and Pro Bowl’s). An AV of 15+ is elite-level play, while an AV of 0-5 is bust territory.
Quarterbacks chosen in the top 10 have a 14% chance of multiple 15+ AV-seasons, while quarterbacks chosen in the rest of round 1 have a 6% chance of the same.
Throughout their careers, quarterbacks selected in the top 10 (last ten years) have an AV of more than 70, while quarterbacks selected in the rest of round 1 have an AV of about 66. That might sound like a small difference, but when you combine the entire groups, 4 points less is a massive fall.
By the way, one reason why QBs in top 10 have a much higher AV is because they play longer as shown in the other stats.
The draft is about risk assessment, and as you can understand, the chance of drafting a successful quarterback is drastically bigger in the top 10 compared to the rest of the first round. I am not willing to tank, but when you use statistics to prove your point, at least understand what you are talking about.
Garthshort
ASFN Icon
Okay, make that a VG running game. Especially if that is 7th of 32. I think that 7th is something to aim for.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
We were 7th in passing last season
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
I agree with this.
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
I think it is important to specify that you can be competitive without a top QB even if you may not be likely to win a Super Bowl. However, Hurts and Darnold are both flawed players whose teams built a roster around them to overcome their limitations. Plenty of opportunities arise to grab a QB if the rest of your roster is solid.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
I expect we’ll be bad enough to pick in the top 10 regardless of self-sabotage. I dont think there’s much difference between top 5 and top 10 in QB results. Top 5 you have to be especially inept or lose on purpose.
Eight of the 14 playoff teams last year started quarterbacks who they did not draft in the top 10. In 2024 it was seven of 14.
Give me a Roseman or Schneider first. Then we can go get a second hand Darnold, Hurts, Foles, Wentz, or Wilson.*
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Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
If we are being honest, I can't remember the last inept front office to win a Super Bowl. Closest thing is probably Cincy and then SF after that.
So the next best thing is a (potential) great QB. Coaching, line, defense, yada yada.
If we can take the #1 or the last pick. What's the best odds? (In regards to SF/Cincy)
I'm assuming we will never have a great FO.
Garthshort
ASFN Icon
And that was great since we had SO MANY RB injuries. Our running game will be near the top once we have a VG QB. Along with our total Offense. "Moving On Up."
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Where did this number come from? I did my own analysis just based on guys who extended (excluding the 2023 class and later).
47.2% of 36 first-round QBs have gotten extensions with the teams who drafted him.
58.3% of 24 top 10 drafted QBs got extensions with the teams who drafted them.
52.9% of 17 top 5 drafted QBs for extensions with the teams who who drafted them.
That third number includes guys like Jared Goff, Tua, and Carson Wentz who were extended and the teams immediately regretted the decision.
A combination of data from ESPN, CBS, Bleacher Report and PFF.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
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some dumb guy
Hall of Famer
I call you the stat man purely out of respect. Can I ask what you do or did for a living? Statistician seems too mundane and picturing you sitting in a basement surrounded by computers and monitors seems a little too gothic. I'll completely understand if you don't want to respond since it's a personal question but I'm just curious.
And I've sat here for 10 minutes trying to decide to hit post or not...........Ah, worst case you don't respond and that's understandable.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
I’m actually a copywriter and trained in creative writing. The math skills were developed in the path of telling better/more interesting/more accurate stories. I’ve worked in financial services and banking.
Haven’t taken math since junior year in high school!
some dumb guy
Hall of Famer
Wow, impressive!
WAIT, please don't tell me your posts are manufactured stories with made up stats.
You know how many people would freak out right now???? LOLOLOLOL
And if they are, damn, you are very good at your job!!!
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