The Market (2022-2026)

[Folster]

Gold might lose a little luster and shine for it's hedging moving forward. It will be the best of a bunch of commodities more than likely because it's less tied to economically sensitive sectors, like silver... but, I have zero idea where this metal could fall to. GDX got crushed today on a big reversal from Friday and is usually a sign of liquidity/forced selling. Margin calls are picking up steam. IMO.

Yeah. Gold hasn't participated in the commodity boom to the extent of others unfortunately.

 

[jbjarko]

What shall I buy in the coming days?

 

[dscher]

What shall I buy in the coming days?

Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something...

 

[Russ Smith]

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Nasdaq today my goodness.

 

[elindholm]

DPZ up today, I avoided a complete wipe-out! Yay!

 

[elindholm]

Yeah. Gold hasn't participated in the commodity boom to the extent of others unfortunately.

Give it time. I suspect that the crypto crash will prove good for gold.

 

[Russ Smith]

I read something over the weekend that was predicting a rally in part because companies were going to use some of the money they didn't pay in corporate taxes to do stock buybacks now that shares are so cheap. Based on Nasdaq today i would say that has NOT started yet!

NASDAQ is now down 33.3 % from it's 52 week high.

What I don't get I'm reading articles that say some companies are doing layoffs as a result. I get startups they were counting on more series whatever money or IPO and with the markets this bad that money won't come now, but for established companies the stock price falling really has not much direct impact. With the whole market tanking consumers shouldn't be saying boy company X sucks now the stock has cratered. And all of the bigger companies have huge amounts of cash from tax savings so it seems to me if they are doing layoffs it's because they chose buybacks over employees?

Normally the reason you don't want your stock to tank is fear of takeover if you don't want to be taken over. or that it's harder to retain employees if their stock is worthless but that's everyone right now

is there some reason I'm missing as to why a stock crash would cause layoffs at tech companies?

 

[dscher]

Give it time. I suspect that the crypto crash will prove good for gold.

It hasn't yet. Why would it be any different moving forward? Hyper inflation, no gold outperformance.. not a great signal for anyone hoping for sustained inflation. IMO.

 

[Russ Smith]

Give it time. I suspect that the crypto crash will prove good for gold.

I do wonder if the people still in Crypto still believe being decentralized is a game changer? It clearly hasn't helped in this collapse in fact crypto is worse than stocks in many cases

 

[dscher]

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Options guy with an under the market outlook of recent events. These guys see under the surface activity to a much higher extent than any of us. The nervousness in his voice grabs my attention week by week... He's a quant. I'm a technical guy. When we all match up. Watch out. JMO.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Supplying some material with a bit of comedy mixed in.... Needed in times like these IMO.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I read something over the weekend that was predicting a rally in part because companies were going to use some of the money they didn't pay in corporate taxes to do stock buybacks now that shares are so cheap. Based on Nasdaq today i would say that has NOT started yet!

NASDAQ is now down 33.3 % from it's 52 week high.

What I don't get I'm reading articles that say some companies are doing layoffs as a result. I get startups they were counting on more series whatever money or IPO and with the markets this bad that money won't come now, but for established companies the stock price falling really has not much direct impact. With the whole market tanking consumers shouldn't be saying boy company X sucks now the stock has cratered. And all of the bigger companies have huge amounts of cash from tax savings so it seems to me if they are doing layoffs it's because they chose buybacks over employees?

Normally the reason you don't want your stock to tank is fear of takeover if you don't want to be taken over. or that it's harder to retain employees if their stock is worthless but that's everyone right now

is there some reason I'm missing as to why a stock crash would cause layoffs at tech companies?

I think it's more than just the stock crash. They're forecasting the recession and getting ready for it. The stock market is a leading indicator. The layoffs I've been seeing have generally been fat trimming. The engineers haven't been getting hit much with it. It's been more of the middle management types or the lower level customer service types of jobs.

It seems like there was a bit of over hiring in some of those areas when things were booming. Lots of people weren't actually working 8 hour days due to their work load, it was more like 4 or 5 hours of work with 3 or 4 hours of goofing off on the web or whatever. Trim those jobs back my 20 or 30% and you save a ton of money while really only making people work what they were hired to do.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Carving out that right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern on ARKK at that 40 level. Lol.

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[Folster]

So the talking heads seem to think a .5% hike will tank the market, .75% will be a wash, and 1% will cause a jump. I think we see .75%. It seems to have been telegraphed since last week. Powell doesn't have the balls to go a full 1%

 

[juza76]

So the talking heads seem to think a .5% hike will tank the market, .75% will be a wash, and 1% will cause a jump. I think we see .75%. It seems to have been telegraphed since last week. Powell doesn't have the balls to go a full 1%

When does he take the decision
Didn't hear anything yet

 

[Folster]

When does he take the decision
Didn't hear anything yet

2PM EST today supposedly.

 

[Folster]

Carving out that right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern on ARKK at that 40 level. Lol.

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Round tripping back to 2018 is pretty impressive.

 

[juza76]

2PM EST today supposedly.

Desperate times call for drastic measure? It would be the best news for the market?

 

[dscher]

Desperate times call for drastic measure? It would be the best news for the market?

No better way to fix out of control inflation than to crash asset prices to reset sentiment.

 

[Mainstreet]

I've been thinking about moving some money into CDs. Does anyone think the interest rates will take off further?

I''m sort of in a wait and see mode at the moment.

 

[Folster]

I've been thinking about moving some money into CDs. Does anyone think the interest rates will take off further?

I'm sort of in a wait and see mode at the moment.

I just looked at brokered CDs that came out Monday and the best 6 month rate is 1.90% APY and the best 12 month is 2.60% APY. That doesn't seem very attractive to me; although it looks great compared to YTD market performance. You'd likely have better luck finding a CD from a bank or credit union with a promo rate that is subsidized to incentivize bringing new money into the bank.

 

[Mainstreet]

I just looked at brokered CDs that came out Monday and the best 6 month rate is 1.90% APY and the best 12 month is 2.60% APY. That doesn't seem very attractive to me; although it looks great compared to YTD market performance. You'd likely have better luck finding a CD from a bank or credit union with a promo rate that is subsidized to incentivize bringing new money into the bank.

I'm not seeing any promo with a brick and mortar bank as yet. The best I have seen is 0.60% for a 7 month CD and 0.85% for a 13 month CD.

 

[Folster]

I'm not seeing any promo with a brick and mortar bank as yet. The best I have seen is 0.60% for a 7 month CD and 0.85% for a 13 month CD.

Do you have a brokerage acct?