The Market (2022-2026)

[elindholm]

AMZN split 20-1 today. I went from 4 to 80 shares.

GOOGL, which I own, splits next month. I know there's a kind of myth that stocks jump after a split, but I haven't seen any solid data to support that, just anecdotal cases. Is there a reason to be excited?

 

[Folster]

GOOGL, which I own, splits next month. I know there's a kind of myth that stocks jump after a split, but I haven't seen any solid data to support that, just anecdotal cases. Is there a reason to be excited?

I think it's largely psychological. It's much easier for retail traders to open or add to the position. Also it should facilitate more option activity from retail investors that couldn't afford 100 shares previously. It seemed to be a positive event during the recent bull/speculative run, but I'm not as optimistic in the current environment.

 

[BigRedRage]

What do you have that trades at 30,000? Is that BTC?

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Yeah, I don't actually own btc anymore. Just watch it.

 

[BigRedRage]

And yet, no matter what happens, his fans will insist that he handled everything the right way, and his stature will continue to grow. He really is like Trump. Constantly talks out of both sides of his mouth, one public failure after another, but parades an image of wealth to convince people that he knows what he's doing.

I've never seen any trump company accomplish a fraction of what space x, Tesla or PayPal did though.

 

[BigRedRage]

GOOGL, which I own, splits next month. I know there's a kind of myth that stocks jump after a split, but I haven't seen any solid data to support that, just anecdotal cases. Is there a reason to be excited?

I've seen data that it def helps with strong fundamental companies and it especially helps w companies who let employees buy stock at reduced rates.

 

[elindholm]

I've never seen any trump company accomplish a fraction of what space x, Tesla or PayPal did though.

That's fair. I'd forgotten about Musk's involvement with PayPal.

 

[Folster]

I don't think anybody here holds FB, but they are changing their ticker to META on 6/9.

 

[elindholm]

I don't think anybody here holds FB, but they are changing their ticker to META on 6/9.

I guess WRLDPC is too long?

 

[Folster]

I guess WRLDPC is too long?

I'm not picking up what you are putting down. Trying to rack my brain. What is WRLDPC?

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm not picking up what you are putting down. Trying to rack my brain. What is WRLDPC?

Metta world peace

 

[Folster]

Metta world peace

Haha. I was thinking world peace but did not put 2 and 2 together.

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[Devilmaycare]

Metta world peace

This one went right over my head too and I'm usually good at making the odd ball connections.

 

[elindholm]

This one went right over my head too and I'm usually good at making the odd ball connections.

Yeah, it was a pretty weak effort, but what the heck, you win some you lose some.

 

[Russ Smith]

Going to be rough day I suspect. CPI per BLS came in at 8.6 for may due to rising fuel prices largely. They were expecting 8.3 so it's a problem.

 

[Folster]

Going to be rough day I suspect. CPI per BLS came in at 8.6 for may due to rising fuel prices largely. They were expecting 8.3 so it's a problem.

Yeah. Hotter than expected. It'll be a rough day for sure. Next week after a couple good days the talking heads will be speculating whether the bottom is in.

 

[Folster]

We're hearing mainstream calls for a 100 bp, or 1% Fed increase now to shock to market and show they are serious.

 

[elindholm]

We're hearing mainstream calls for a 100 bp, or 1% Fed increase now to shock to market and show they are serious.

I can't remember when it was, maybe 15 or so years ago, but there was a time that everyone was expecting a 0.50% increase, and the Fed went 0.75% instead, and it was called a "masterstroke." And, uh, I think things turned out okay, but since I can't remember any details, maybe they didn't.

 

[elindholm]

Bought NFLX at 182.54. I had a limit order in at 192.50, but it crashed through that at the open, so I saved ten bucks per share, thank you E*Trade! I think that the quality of the user interface is going to make as much difference as the content between all of these streaming services. Netflix is easy to use and I've had a good experience with it, so I think they'll continue to have a leg up.

I'd like PARA to get back to 31 before I dump it, but that may be wishful thinking and I might lose patience and cut the cord earlier than that.

 

[Folster]

Bought NFLX at 182.54. I had a limit order in at 192.50, but it crashed through that at the open, so I saved ten bucks per share, thank you E*Trade! I think that the quality of the user interface is going to make as much difference as the content between all of these streaming services. Netflix is easy to use and I've had a good experience with it, so I think they'll continue to have a leg up.

I'd like PARA to get back to 31 before I dump it, but that may be wishful thinking and I might lose patience and cut the cord earlier than that.

It looks like DIS, NFLX, and WBD will be duking it out with PARA and CMCSA's Peacock nipping at their heals and AMZN and AAPL doing their thing. I think we'll see further consolidation. But you can't discount YouTube. It's a beast. My boomer parents watch nothing but YouTube videos now and that's all my kids like. I'm addicted as well.

It's crazy to see NFLX with a PE of 16.70.

 

[dscher]

But you can't discount YouTube. It's a beast. My boomer parents watch nothing but YouTube videos now and that's all my kids like. I'm addicted as well.

Yep. They got me awhile back when ads were few and far between... By the time I had to pay for premium I was already in too deep. Lol. But still well worth it IMO. At this point they could double their price and I'd still willingly pay.

 

[Folster]

Yep. They got me awhile back when ads were few and far between... By the time I had to pay for premium I was already in too deep. Lol. But still well worth it IMO. At this point they could double their price and I'd still willingly pay.

Definitely worth it to avoid the ads. They are horrible. I think they make more money off the ads than Premium though.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Yep. They got me awhile back when ads were few and far between... By the time I had to pay for premium I was already in too deep. Lol. But still well worth it IMO. At this point they could double their price and I'd still willingly pay.

I finally went premium too. The ads were never too bad for me. I do most of my YT watching through an AppleTV and it never got many ads. I've been using the iOS app more though when I walk my dog and boy is that a crappy experience if you have ads. It was crazy how often they were popping up.

Their iOS app as a whole needs to be rewritten too. As a mobile dev it amazes me how clunky a lot of it is. They really don't seem to spend much effort of UX.

 

[elindholm]

It looks like DIS, NFLX, and WBD will be duking it out with PARA and CMCSA's Peacock nipping at their heals and AMZN and AAPL doing their thing. I think we'll see further consolidation. But you can't discount YouTube.

I agree, I'm very high on GOOGL, enough that I've considered breaking my rule against overweighting in any one particular stock.

But it remains to be seen whether WBD can be in the upper echelon. So far they look more like PARA than they do like DIS.

 

[Folster]

I agree, I'm very high on GOOGL, enough that I've considered breaking my rule against overweighting in any one particular stock.

But it remains to be seen whether WBD can be in the upper echelon. So far they look more like PARA than they do like DIS.

I think you are discounting the HBO brand and catalog as well as Warner Bros cinema. They are heavy hitters. They are missing a broadcast channel and football so I think a merger with PARA nabbing CBS in the future could be interesting, but NFLX or AAPL could gobble PARA up as well. Or maybe CMCSA spins off NBC/Universal like T did with Warner Media.

Market cap
DIS: $182B
NFLX: $82B
WBD: $37B
PARA: $19B

I would add CMSCA at $188B, but they are mainly the cable giant, not their NBC/Universal subsidiary. The same with DIS and their theme parks, but not to the same extent.

But you may be right. Time will tell.

 

[Folster]

I agree, I'm very high on GOOGL, enough that I've considered breaking my rule against overweighting in any one particular stock.

I originally invested in GOOG a few years ago with it was at a slight discount to GOOGL and I did not care about the voting rights. I recently bought another share of GOOG even though it is now at a slight premium as I am willing to pay a couple dollars more over GOOGL because it would drive me crazy having both tickers in my portfolio.