16 Playoff Scenarios if the Suns win out

[Ninjafish]

So far, Utah is winning the Houston game. But if they lose the last game to Spurs, then it's certain that Spurs get 3rd seed if they also win today vs SAC. Thus, we can't get Houston anyway. In this case, it'd be better for us to try to get HCA as the 5th seed vs Utah by winning both remaining games (and given Houston losing the last one too).

It's be better for us to forfeit the Portland game so we're sure to get the Spurs instead of the Jazz.

 

[sLapzsHaQ]

We can beat anyone, I guess...

 

[cly2tw]

It's be better for us to forfeit the Portland game so we're sure to get the Spurs instead of the Jazz.

Well, it depends on the outcome of Jazz at Spurs final game. If Utah wins, they will get the 3rd seed, then we'd want to win the Portland game to have 4th seed over Spurs' 5th, or in case Houston wins theirs it'd be Houston 4th, Suns 5th. If Utah loses, then we could either win ours to get HCA at 5th by winning ours or staying at 6 by losing.

In any case, both Utah and Spurs would want to win the game if Houston lost theirs. However, if Houston won, Spurs might not want to win as much, since they'd face Utah at 6th seed in a loss.

As a matter of fact, Houston doesn't seem to have incentive to lose the Clippers' game, as by winning they are guaranteed the HCA in the 4/5 bracket. If they lost, it'd be Suns' option to leave them at 6th by a win or put them into 5th without HCA with a loss.

 

[TheHopToad]

With Houston's loss and San Antonio's win, the Suns are down to four possible playoff scenarios:

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix (HCA)
5. San Antonio
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix

Phoenix can no longer gain the #3 seed. Time to root for Utah.

 

[Ninjafish]

The good news is that the Rockets would have to lose to the Clippers in order for us to play Utah. If they win, we don't get HCA though, but I don't think that's a big deal anyway. Spurs didn't have HCA when they beat us the last two times.

 

[cly2tw]

Looking at the cases with Houston winning vs. Clipps:

Phoenix (55-27): win vs Portland
Houston (55-27): win vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): loss vs Utah
Utah (55-27): win at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): win vs Portland
Houston (55-27): win vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): win vs Utah
Utah (54-28): loss at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix

It could be that both Spurs and Utah would want to lose, to avoid Suns.

 

[TheHopToad]

Houston beating the Clippers at home would eliminate the Suns from possibly playing the Jazz, which might be a good thing.

 

[Ninjafish]

Houston beating the Clippers at home would eliminate the Suns from possibly playing the Jazz, which might be a good thing.

How's about if we lose to Portland?

 

[WuRaider]

If both the Jazz and the Spurs try to tank the game, you know who they afraid of!

 

[TheHopToad]

How's about if we lose to Portland?

Well, you got me there. If we lose to Portland and Utah beats San Antonio, the Utah would claim #3, Spurs #4, Rockets #5, and Suns #6. We'd indeed play the Jazz then.

I was trying to be positive and only cionsider options that involve Suns' victories.

 

[Cheesebeef]

If both the Jazz and the Spurs try to tank the game, you know who they afraid of!

i really doubt if anyone's "afraid" of us. Yes, we've beaten the Spurs the last two times we've played them, but they're still defending champs and would have homecourt against us and likely a healthy Ginobli. And the Jazz ain't afraid of this team. They have the perfect players to murders us in matchups.

 

[Cheesewater]

i really doubt if anyone's "afraid" of us. Yes, we've beaten the Spurs the last two times we've played them, but they're still defending champs and would have homecourt against us and likely a healthy Ginobli. And the Jazz ain't afraid of this team. They have the perfect players to murders us in matchups.

The Spurs fans are not hoping for the Suns. By and large, the tenor at Spurstalk is "Let's see if we can tiptoe around Phoenix..."

 

[cly2tw]

i really doubt if anyone's "afraid" of us. Yes, we've beaten the Spurs the last two times we've played them, but they're still defending champs and would have homecourt against us and likely a healthy Ginobli. And the Jazz ain't afraid of this team. They have the perfect players to murders us in matchups.

this year, nobody in the west is afraid of anybody. but if possible, they'd try to avoid apparently tougher matchups. and suns are a tougher matchup for both utah and SA compared to the feasible alternatives.

 

[PHX 32]

The Spurs fans are not hoping for the Suns. By and large, the tenor at Spurstalk is "Let's see if we can tiptoe around Phoenix..."

 

[Griffin]

With regards to the 4-way tie:

Jerry Brown:

Like to see the Suns play the Rockets? That could still happen, and the Suns could have home court if the Suns and Jazz win out and finish in a four-way tie with Houston and San Antonio, who would have to lose once (for the Spurs, that has to be Utah). Utah would wind up third and face San Antonio, while the Suns would get the Rockets and open in Phoenix.

Paul Coro:

Being the fourth seed with home-court advantage against fifth-seeded Houston. This preferable option requires a Utah win Wednesday at San Antonio.

The consensus appears to be that the Suns would have home court advantage vs. Houston if the Suns finish with the 4th seed, despite the fact that Houston would have had the two-team tiebreaker (not used in this situation, since this is a multi-team tie).

So, this appears to be our best-case scenario, for the first round anyhow. A Suns win and a Spurs loss should secure home court for Phoenix in the first round regardless of the outcome of the Houston/Clippers game. Can anyone confirm?

 

[TheHopToad]

I don't see how this is possible since Home-court advantage in all playoff series is determined by win-loss record, not seeding.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups?season=2008

The only explanation is that maybe somewhere in the rules it states that in the event of a win-loss tie, that the higher seed gets home court advantage instead of the team that owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. But I have not read or heard of that before.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Houston beating the Clippers at home would eliminate the Suns from possibly playing the Jazz, which might be a good thing.

COME ON HOUSTON!!!!

 

[jmainaz]

It is possible because of a weird rule in NBA seeding. If more than one team is tied at the end of the season, seeding is NOT determined by head-to-head. Instead it is determined by the best record against all teams tied. Therefore it would go:

#3 Utah (7-3)
#4 Phx (6-5)
#5 Houston (5-6)
#6 San Ant (4-8)

with HCA going to the better seed.

Hope this helps clarify.

-JMAinAZ

 

[TheHopToad]

Here's another article on the crazy playoff picture from a Utah Jazz perspective. The part I found interesting is that the Jazz haven't won in San Antonio since 1999...20 straight losses. Yikes! Time to break that streak!

http://blogs.sltrib.com/jazz/2008/04/possibilities.htm

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Good stuff. This is amazing.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

It is possible because of a weird rule in NBA seeding. If more than one team is tied at the end of the season, seeding is NOT determined by head-to-head. Instead it is determined by the best record against all teams tied. Therefore it would go:

#3 Utah (7-3)
#4 Phx (6-5)
#5 Houston (5-6)
#6 San Ant (4-8)

with HCA going to the better seed.

Hope this helps clarify.

-JMAinAZ

Yes, and no. Utah is not included in the 4 team discussion, because they are guaranteed at least a #4 seed. So it is Phoenix is 5-3, Houston is 4-4 and San Antonio is 3-5.

Then to determine the #3 seed, you go back to the head to head with Utah, and they won the series against the Suns, giving them the 3rd seed, and Phoenix the 4th.

My head hurts...

 

[Griffin]

Here's another article on the crazy playoff picture from a Utah Jazz perspective. The part I found interesting is that the Jazz haven't won in San Antonio since 1999...20 straight losses. Yikes! Time to break that streak!

http://blogs.sltrib.com/jazz/2008/04/possibilities.htm

Interesting bit of info there:

Tiebreakers: This is the much-discussed four-team tie. According to the NBA office, the tie is broken first by removing the Jazz, who are guaranteed a top four seed as the Northwest Division champions. Then you do a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker with the games the Rockets, Suns and Spurs have played against each other. Phoenix is 5-3, Houston is 4-4 and San Antonio is 3-5. The Suns and Jazz then are part of a tiebreaker to determine the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds. The Jazz own the season series with Phoenix so they are third, the Suns fourth, the Rockets fifth and the Spurs sixth. NBA spokesman Tim Frank confirmed this to both Feigen and myself Monday

This is different from the way we were calculating it, though it results in the same seeding. But it doesn't confirm that the Suns would have home court vs. Houston.

Note also that all these scenarios are contingent upon NO winning at least one of their two remaining games. If they lose both, it's all out the window.

 

[TheHopToad]

It's so convoluted that even the media can't get it straight. Here's an article from the Houston Chronicle trying to explain the Rockets' scenarios. I think he's got it all wrong and at one point contradicts himself from one paragraph to another in describing who plays who if the Rockets and Jazz both win. Can't blame him though, you need a calculator and a twelve-pack to figure this stuff out.

http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2008/04/pick_your_poison_rockets_to_pl.html

 

[Griffin]

I don't see how this is possible since Home-court advantage in all playoff series is determined by win-loss record, not seeding.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups?season=2008

The only explanation is that maybe somewhere in the rules it states that in the event of a win-loss tie, that the higher seed gets home court advantage instead of the team that owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. But I have not read or heard of that before.

Guess you were right all along:

The big news here is that Phoenix would not have home-court advantage in a No. 4 vs. No. 5 series against Houston. Even though the Suns would be slotted No. 4 out of a four-way tie with Utah, Houston and San Antonio, the league still reverts back to head-to-head matchups to decide home-court advantage in a particular series. In the case of this four-way tie, Utah is first taken out of the equation as a division champ and the next tiebreaker is cumulative head-to-head among Phoenix, Houston and San Antonio. The Suns win that to be the fourth seed but it is a moot victory because they still lose home-court advantage when the head-to-head is applied after the seeding is done. The Suns and Rockets split a four-game regular season series but Houston wins the tiebreaker based on a better record against Western Conference teams.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/PaulCoro/21618

But we can still finish with a better record than Houston to avoid this possible scenario.

 

[TheHopToad]

But we can still finish with a better record than Houston to avoid this possible scenario.

We could, but then we would not play Houston. If the Suns win and Houston loses, we'll have home court against the loser of the Utah-San Antonio game.