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The FTN Football Almanac 2026 is out! Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections are available! We’re less than 50 days from the start of the 2026 NFL season! Our long nightmare is finally almost over.
I was a reader of the Almanac long before I wrote for it, and I’ve now been a part of it for 10 years – it’s something I’ve always valued. I always appreciate the level of detail it goes into; the deep insights it brings out and the projections that it comes up with. But I’ve also always appreciated the fact that the numbers aren’t treated as gospel. The standard disclaimer we give every year when we release our final projections — a few of them will look strange to you. A few of them look strange to us – isn’t just some cover-our-behinds boilerplate. We can look at our numbers with critical eyes and see where we disagree with our system. We’re not stuck with just parroting the eventual projections, even if we end up agreeing with the vast majority of them. It’s not just a book of numbers; it’s a book written by nearly a dozen people, each with our own thoughts and opinions.
In that spirit, let’s all open our hymnals to page 412, where we will find Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections. I assure you, gentle reader, that Jeff has forgotten more about fantasy than I’ll ever know, as his track recordgoes to show. But that doesn’t mean I necessarily agree with every single one of his takes! Today, let’s go through five fantasy players I think the Almanac is overrating for fantasy this year – and we’ll follow that up next week with the five guys I’m drafting earlier than our own book says to.
FTN Consensus: QB7ADP: QB9
I see the vision. Heck, I wrote the Chicago chapter in the Almanac; I get the hype. Good Caleb is one of the most exciting players in the league. That’s why he got the Madden cover, after all. Our offensive projections have the Bears as the second-best team in the league, and a lot of that depends on Williams taking that big step forward in his second year with Ben Johnson. That’s absolutely a realistic outcome, and the (comically low) bar of being the first Bears quarterback with 4,000 passing yards in a season is well within reach. When you add in the Chicago defense probably being terrible, a top-five fantasy season is well within reach.
That said, that’s not the only outcome, is it? We expect Williams’ inconsistencies to go away as he continues to grow as a passer, but what if that’s just … who Caleb is? Last year’s Williams was exceptionally inconsistent from down to down, to a frustrating extreme. He ranked in the bottom 10 in “prayer yards” – uncatchable air yards – as well as on-target throw percentage and completion percentage over expected. He leaves the easy stuff on the field far too often for my taste, which kills drives and can leaves fantasy points on the table. There’s certainly no guarantee of a Year 2 to Year 3 jump, and yet that seems to have been priced in almost as a fait accompli in fantasy drafts at the moment. He’s been drafted like the best-case scenario is a given, which means there’s no value here for me. I’m fine with being a year late, if needs be; I like my quarterback to be able to complete passes!
FTN Consensus: QB12ADP: QB14
Patrick Mahomes remains one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and the number of quarterbacks I’d exchange him for can be counted on one hand with fingers left over. He may no longer be the obvious MVP favorite before each season or the undisputed QB1, but he’s still in that best of the best tier.
That said, Mahomes’ last top-10 fantasy finish was in 2023 and his last top-five finish was the year before that. His weapons remain questionable, at best; Travis Kelce is aging, and long gone are the days when Tyreek Hill would take the top off of defenses for him. He’s also, y’know, coming back from a torn ACL! While he’s been cleared to return to practice and is planning on starting Week 1, it will likely be some time before his full mobility returns. He’s openly acknowledged that he wants to run less – good for his health and the Chiefs, bad for his fantasy prospects – and that the Chiefs want to lean on Kenneth Walker III in the backfield more. Great! Doesn’t help me in fantasy whatsoever. Mahomes isn’t a QB1 for me in fantasy unless I’m in a crazy deep league.
FTN Consensus: RB19ADP: RB19
A couple weeks ago, the Saints came to an agreement to keep Alvin Kamara around. Kamara’s nowhere near the player he used to be, but he still can contribute (and will be used) on passing downs. That’s not great for Etienne’s value, especially in PPR leagues. He’s being drafted as if he’s a three-down player, contributing both on the ground and as a receiver. If he cedes work to Kamara, that’s terrible for his value. Kamara had an 11% target share last season and while you’d expect that to go down with Etienne in the fold, the Saints still like having him out there as a pass catcher – and perhaps around the goal line, too, which would crater Etienne’s value. Etienne has never been the most efficient rusher, either, and that worries me in Kellen Moore’s offense. When Moore’s offense fires, it’s great for fantasy value. But it’s also been last in the league in running back fantasy points twice in the past three years, both in 2023 and 2025. There are just too many questions for me to take Etienne in the fourth round over someone like a Cam Skattebo or a David Montgomery. And by the time I would feel comfortable taking the risk, he’ll likely be long gone.
FTN Consensus: WR26ADP: WR32
Kyle Shanahan has never really had a tall receiver like Evans to work in his offense. A big end zone threat for Brock Purdy to throw to has 49ers fans salivating, myself included. But I think Evans’ impact will be felt more in real football than fantasy football, and that’s assuming he stays healthy and plays a full season. Evans is 33 years old and hasn’t played a full year since 2023. Substation jokes aside, it seems likely he’ll miss at least some time at some point in the year. The list of receivers, age 33 or older, who have delivered solid fantasy campaigns in the last couple decades consists of Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman, neither of whose games really line up with what Evans does. Even when he’s on the field, though, a lot of Evans’ value as a fantasy player comes from red zone targets, and the 49ers aren’t exactly lacking for options there. George Kittle seems to be well ahead of expectation returning from his Achilles injury and Christian McCaffrey remains the 49ers’ top option in the red zone, no matter how often they try to convince us that this is the year that they’ll lower his workload. Evans will have an impact in the red zone, sure, but some of that will be demanding coverage and allowing someone else to get open – there’s only so much ball to go around. No Evans for me on my fantasy squads unless he comes very late.
FTN Consensus: TE13ADP: TE12
I write the failed receptions pieces every year, and that may give me an unfair bias against certain players. I can’t see the name “Wan’Dale Robinson” any more without mentally adding “two-yard gain on third-and-15” in my head; it’s just a tic at this point. We don’t have Robinson very high in our rankings because, hey, it’s the Titans. But we do have Ferguson ranked highly, and he was second in the league with 31 failed receptions last year. Maybe that’s not a huge blow in a PPR league, because, hey, everything’s a catch. But 82-600-8, with nothing but checkdowns and waggles? No. No. A thousand times, no. Dallas’ offense goes through George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb first and foremost, and so Ferguson gets shunted way down the totem pole. If you’re in a full on PPR league, you can survive that, but he’s still being drafted with the lingering ghost effects of his top-10 finish in 2023. That was a fundamentally different offense, one where the decaying remains of Brandin Cooks was Dallas’ WR2. With Lamb and Pickens both on the field, Ferguson earned just 9% of Dallas’ air yards, less than 15% of the target share, and 32.6 yards per game. He was salvaged by his high touchdown percentage, and I don’t want to rely on a boom-or-bust guy like that at tight end. He’s someone I’d stream, not someone I’d draft.
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I was a reader of the Almanac long before I wrote for it, and I’ve now been a part of it for 10 years – it’s something I’ve always valued. I always appreciate the level of detail it goes into; the deep insights it brings out and the projections that it comes up with. But I’ve also always appreciated the fact that the numbers aren’t treated as gospel. The standard disclaimer we give every year when we release our final projections — a few of them will look strange to you. A few of them look strange to us – isn’t just some cover-our-behinds boilerplate. We can look at our numbers with critical eyes and see where we disagree with our system. We’re not stuck with just parroting the eventual projections, even if we end up agreeing with the vast majority of them. It’s not just a book of numbers; it’s a book written by nearly a dozen people, each with our own thoughts and opinions.
In that spirit, let’s all open our hymnals to page 412, where we will find Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections. I assure you, gentle reader, that Jeff has forgotten more about fantasy than I’ll ever know, as his track recordgoes to show. But that doesn’t mean I necessarily agree with every single one of his takes! Today, let’s go through five fantasy players I think the Almanac is overrating for fantasy this year – and we’ll follow that up next week with the five guys I’m drafting earlier than our own book says to.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
FTN Consensus: QB7ADP: QB9
I see the vision. Heck, I wrote the Chicago chapter in the Almanac; I get the hype. Good Caleb is one of the most exciting players in the league. That’s why he got the Madden cover, after all. Our offensive projections have the Bears as the second-best team in the league, and a lot of that depends on Williams taking that big step forward in his second year with Ben Johnson. That’s absolutely a realistic outcome, and the (comically low) bar of being the first Bears quarterback with 4,000 passing yards in a season is well within reach. When you add in the Chicago defense probably being terrible, a top-five fantasy season is well within reach.
That said, that’s not the only outcome, is it? We expect Williams’ inconsistencies to go away as he continues to grow as a passer, but what if that’s just … who Caleb is? Last year’s Williams was exceptionally inconsistent from down to down, to a frustrating extreme. He ranked in the bottom 10 in “prayer yards” – uncatchable air yards – as well as on-target throw percentage and completion percentage over expected. He leaves the easy stuff on the field far too often for my taste, which kills drives and can leaves fantasy points on the table. There’s certainly no guarantee of a Year 2 to Year 3 jump, and yet that seems to have been priced in almost as a fait accompli in fantasy drafts at the moment. He’s been drafted like the best-case scenario is a given, which means there’s no value here for me. I’m fine with being a year late, if needs be; I like my quarterback to be able to complete passes!
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
FTN Consensus: QB12ADP: QB14
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Patrick Mahomes remains one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and the number of quarterbacks I’d exchange him for can be counted on one hand with fingers left over. He may no longer be the obvious MVP favorite before each season or the undisputed QB1, but he’s still in that best of the best tier.
That said, Mahomes’ last top-10 fantasy finish was in 2023 and his last top-five finish was the year before that. His weapons remain questionable, at best; Travis Kelce is aging, and long gone are the days when Tyreek Hill would take the top off of defenses for him. He’s also, y’know, coming back from a torn ACL! While he’s been cleared to return to practice and is planning on starting Week 1, it will likely be some time before his full mobility returns. He’s openly acknowledged that he wants to run less – good for his health and the Chiefs, bad for his fantasy prospects – and that the Chiefs want to lean on Kenneth Walker III in the backfield more. Great! Doesn’t help me in fantasy whatsoever. Mahomes isn’t a QB1 for me in fantasy unless I’m in a crazy deep league.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, New Orleans Saints
FTN Consensus: RB19ADP: RB19
A couple weeks ago, the Saints came to an agreement to keep Alvin Kamara around. Kamara’s nowhere near the player he used to be, but he still can contribute (and will be used) on passing downs. That’s not great for Etienne’s value, especially in PPR leagues. He’s being drafted as if he’s a three-down player, contributing both on the ground and as a receiver. If he cedes work to Kamara, that’s terrible for his value. Kamara had an 11% target share last season and while you’d expect that to go down with Etienne in the fold, the Saints still like having him out there as a pass catcher – and perhaps around the goal line, too, which would crater Etienne’s value. Etienne has never been the most efficient rusher, either, and that worries me in Kellen Moore’s offense. When Moore’s offense fires, it’s great for fantasy value. But it’s also been last in the league in running back fantasy points twice in the past three years, both in 2023 and 2025. There are just too many questions for me to take Etienne in the fourth round over someone like a Cam Skattebo or a David Montgomery. And by the time I would feel comfortable taking the risk, he’ll likely be long gone.
Mike Evans, WR, San Francisco 49ers
FTN Consensus: WR26ADP: WR32
Kyle Shanahan has never really had a tall receiver like Evans to work in his offense. A big end zone threat for Brock Purdy to throw to has 49ers fans salivating, myself included. But I think Evans’ impact will be felt more in real football than fantasy football, and that’s assuming he stays healthy and plays a full season. Evans is 33 years old and hasn’t played a full year since 2023. Substation jokes aside, it seems likely he’ll miss at least some time at some point in the year. The list of receivers, age 33 or older, who have delivered solid fantasy campaigns in the last couple decades consists of Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman, neither of whose games really line up with what Evans does. Even when he’s on the field, though, a lot of Evans’ value as a fantasy player comes from red zone targets, and the 49ers aren’t exactly lacking for options there. George Kittle seems to be well ahead of expectation returning from his Achilles injury and Christian McCaffrey remains the 49ers’ top option in the red zone, no matter how often they try to convince us that this is the year that they’ll lower his workload. Evans will have an impact in the red zone, sure, but some of that will be demanding coverage and allowing someone else to get open – there’s only so much ball to go around. No Evans for me on my fantasy squads unless he comes very late.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
FTN Consensus: TE13ADP: TE12
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I write the failed receptions pieces every year, and that may give me an unfair bias against certain players. I can’t see the name “Wan’Dale Robinson” any more without mentally adding “two-yard gain on third-and-15” in my head; it’s just a tic at this point. We don’t have Robinson very high in our rankings because, hey, it’s the Titans. But we do have Ferguson ranked highly, and he was second in the league with 31 failed receptions last year. Maybe that’s not a huge blow in a PPR league, because, hey, everything’s a catch. But 82-600-8, with nothing but checkdowns and waggles? No. No. A thousand times, no. Dallas’ offense goes through George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb first and foremost, and so Ferguson gets shunted way down the totem pole. If you’re in a full on PPR league, you can survive that, but he’s still being drafted with the lingering ghost effects of his top-10 finish in 2023. That was a fundamentally different offense, one where the decaying remains of Brandin Cooks was Dallas’ WR2. With Lamb and Pickens both on the field, Ferguson earned just 9% of Dallas’ air yards, less than 15% of the target share, and 32.6 yards per game. He was salvaged by his high touchdown percentage, and I don’t want to rely on a boom-or-bust guy like that at tight end. He’s someone I’d stream, not someone I’d draft.
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