#### TheCardinal

##### Veteran

- Joined
- Dec 13, 2011

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Going 8-8 makes it much more difficult, and could come down to a very tight strength-of-victory (SOV) tie-breaker with Minnesota, if they win an exact combination of games. We could still catch TB at 8-8 for one spot should they lose out, but for the sake of trying to simplify matters, we'll concede that spot for now and leave it at just one open spot at 8-8. We would need the 49ers to lose at least one more game since they would beat us in tie-breakers at 8-8. Then, if nobody from MIN/CHI/DET reaches 8-8, we're good. However, if either CHI or DET gets to 8-8, we would NEED the Vikings to win exactly 8 games to cover them up (MIN has clinched divisional tie-breakers over both CHI and DET). MIN would HAVE TO beat CHI and NO, and their remaining loss would HAVE TO be to DET (common game) to push it to the SOV tie-breaker. Also, we would need for WSH to NOT be 8-8 as a wild-card (only way would be if NYG wins the East at 8-8).

Now for the SOV scenarios. MIN's victims start with 50 wins (forced outcomes included). ARI's victims start with 43 wins, PLUS either 4.5 (PHI), 5 (SF), OR 9 (LAR) depending on who we beat for our 8th win. Below are the games that would matter:

ARI gets a "point" for

(wk15) NYJ over LAR

(15) BUF over DEN

(15) NYG over CLE

(16) SF over ARI

(16) WSH over CRL

(16) NYJ over CLE

(16) DAL over PHI

(16) SEA over LAR

(16) BUF over NE

(16) NYG over BAL

(17) WSH over PHI

(17) NYJ over NE

(17) BUF over MIA

The SF/DAL, WSH/SEA, SF/SEA, NYG/DAL games already gave us points, included in the 43.

If we only beat PHI: guaranteed points from PHI/DAL (wk16), and PHI/WSH (17)

If we only beat SF again: can get additional points for SF over DAL (15), SF over SEA (17)

If we only beat LAR: guaranteed points from LAR/NYJ (15), and LAR/SEA (16)

MIN gets a "point" for

(15) HOU over IND

(15) DET over TEN

(15) JAX over BAL

(15) NO over KC

(16) HOU over CIN

(16) GB over TEN

(16) DET over TB

(16) CRL over WSH

(16) CHI over JAC

(17) HOU over TEN

(17) CRL over NO

(17) JAX over IND

(17) CHI over GB

(17) NO over CRL

The CRL/GB, DET/MIN games already gave them points, included in the 50. Since they would've beaten CHI twice, the original points from CHI/JAX and CHI/GB are already included in the 50, but can get a second point with CHI wins as listed above.

This is not to say we should root for ALL of our points and against ALL of theirs (obviously, we don't want SF over ARI). In the AFC games, though, it wouldn't hurt to have our teams win and their teams lose. There is also a way to get in at 7-9 with more SOV scenarios, but I'll hold off those for now.