Wild Card Tie-Breaker Scenarios

SoonerLou

ASFN Addict
Joined
Sep 15, 2019
Posts
7,802
Reaction score
11,401
Location
St Louis, MO
Honestly I worry about the Bears.

They got the Jags next week and no way they are blowing a Trevor Lawrence pick.

Packers may rest the last week and we got the Rams.
 

AZman5103

Hall of Famer
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2019
Posts
1,673
Reaction score
1,767
Location
Idaho
Honestly I worry about the Bears.

They got the Jags next week and no way they are blowing a Trevor Lawrence pick.

Packers may rest the last week and we got the Rams.

I can't believe the Jets went 0-13 to start the season, and are still gonna miss out on Lawrence.

They can't even suck correctly.
 

SoonerLou

ASFN Addict
Joined
Sep 15, 2019
Posts
7,802
Reaction score
11,401
Location
St Louis, MO
I would like Seattle to lose out, and get bumped by us at 10-6.
May make a thread, but it begs the question of whether you'd rather play the Saints or Rams.

If Kyler can make the on the run throws he did today we might have a shot against the Saints. However, with the Rams I'm still not sure we beat them week 17 anyway so we'll be looking at the Saints.
 

juza76

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 5, 2009
Posts
13,748
Reaction score
9,511
Location
milan-italy
For GB to have something to play for against Chicago, we need either:

GB loss to TEN
OR
SEA win over LAR

I think greenBay Vs Chicago is the most
heated rivalries in the nfl
So i don't expect green Bay making any favor, plus they don't have to win for the playoff-bye?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,026
Reaction score
53,274
Location
SoCal
We may have to win out. Chicago goes to Jax and should win. The upside is the saints should win next week meaning the pack would want to win in the last game against the bears to get the lone bye in the nfc.
 

MrYeahBut

4 Food groups: beans, chili, cheese, bacon
Supporting Member
Joined
May 20, 2002
Posts
17,732
Reaction score
13,001
Location
Albq
Bet that’s what Seahawks fans said last week when they seen the Rams play the Jets.


Let's put it this way, I don't like the Jags chances.
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
441
Reaction score
461
Though we got a bunch of help on the SOV, the Vikings lost and so this scenario is no longer in-play. If the Vikings now get to 8-8, they would’ve beaten the Lions and so would beat us in a tie-breaker on common games.

OK to un-pin this thread.
 

Cardsfaninlouky

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Jan 10, 2019
Posts
4,432
Reaction score
5,863
Location
Louisville
May make a thread, but it begs the question of whether you'd rather play the Saints or Rams.

If Kyler can make the on the run throws he did today we might have a shot against the Saints. However, with the Rams I'm still not sure we beat them week 17 anyway so we'll be looking at the Saints.
I was hoping the Rams had nothing to play for in week 17 & rest their starters? After losing to the Jets today they need that game so pooh. Oh well, we need to beat them at some point so why not week 17? I'd rather it be in the playoffs.
 

AZman5103

Hall of Famer
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2019
Posts
1,673
Reaction score
1,767
Location
Idaho
Bummer the Bears got the Jags next game.

There is no way their owner allows them to win now. They have a shot at the best QB prospect since Luck, and are the most probable team to relocate...if one does in the NFL.
 

football karma

Happy in the pretense of knowledge
Joined
Jul 22, 2002
Posts
14,946
Reaction score
13,354
curious if GB owns the tiebreakers over NO and/ or SEA

because if SEA and/or NO and GB win next week-- GB still has to beat CHI to stay ahead of them for the bye
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
441
Reaction score
461
curious if GB owns the tiebreakers over NO and/ or SEA

because if SEA and/or NO and GB win next week-- GB still has to beat CHI to stay ahead of them for the bye

One-on-one, SEA would own the tie-breaker over GB at 12-4. They would have the same conference record, but SEA would beat them on common games (ATL/SF/MIN/PHI, as SEA would be 5-0 vs GB's 4-1).

One-on-one, GB owns the tie-breaker over NO (H2H). However, in a 3-way tie at 12-4 with SEA/NO/GB, the Saints would win the tie-breaker on conference record (H2H wouldn't apply due to no one sweeping or having been swept). Should GB beat TEN, a win by New Orleans alone would be insufficient to force GB to play their starters in Week 17, as the Saints would need Seattle in a 3-way tie to make a difference. Thus, to force GB to play their starters in Week 17, we would need EITHER:

GB loss to TEN

OR

SEA win over LAR
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
441
Reaction score
461
As things relate to the Cardinals in terms of tie-breakers, here is what we've got:

1) Green Bay: We cannot catch them.

2) New Orleans: We can only catch them as a wild-card (TB would have to win out as well). It would come down to strength-of-victory which we would lead at the moment 61.5 vs 57 (not including all forced outcomes).

3) Seattle: The only tie-breaker we could force with SEA would be a 3-way tie at 10-6 (Rams would be guaranteed to be 10-6 if we won out and SEA lost out). LAR would win the division (H2H among tied teams), we would be #2 in the West (Divisional Record), SEA would be #3 in the West.

4) NFC East winner: Locked into the 4-seed. The best wild-card from the East could only be 7-9 and so couldn't figure in a tie with us.

5) Los Angeles: We would win all 1-on-1 tie-breakers with the Rams should we catch them, BUT not the 3-way tie at 10-6, as above.

6) Tampa Bay: We would win all wild-card tie-breakers with the Bucs.

7) Arizona: That's us.

8) Chicago: The Bears would win all tie-breakers over the Cardinals.

9) Minnesota: The Vikings would now win all tie-breakers over the Cardinals. They also beat CHI in all tie-breakers.
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
441
Reaction score
461
Should the Cardinals lose both remaining games, our only path to the playoffs would be:

CHI loses both (JAX/GB)
MIN loses at least once (either NO/DET)

That's it, nothing fancy left here. We'd lose all tie-breakers at 8-8.
 

Staff online

Forum statistics

Threads
539,463
Posts
5,286,868
Members
6,281
Latest member
RedzBetz
Top