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PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 27: Wendell Carter Jr. #34, Desmond Bane #3, Jalen Suggs #4, Franz Wagner #22, and Paolo Banchero #5 of the Orlando Magic look on against the Philadelphia 76ers at Xfinity Mobile Arena on October 27, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Magic 136-124. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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Following two straight first-round playoff knockouts, the Orlando Magic decided to press the pedal to the metal on their rebuild this past offseason. They traded four first-round picks to the Memphis Grizzlies for sharpshooter Desmond Bane, who was supposed to complete their young core with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs.
Fast-forward nine months, and the Magic are fresh off the biggest blowout loss in franchise history courtesy of the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. The Raptors went on an NBA-record 31-0 run to put the game out of reach by halftime.
That blowout loss dropped the Magic to 39-35 on the season, which put them eighth in the Eastern Conference. They beat the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday only to get blown out by the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. They’re now tied with the Charlotte Hornets at 40-36, putting them two games behind the seventh-seeded Toronto Raptors.
The Nos. 6-10 seeds are all separated by only 2.5 games, so the final two week-and-a-half of the regular season will have massive implications for the playoffs. The Magic entered the season as a trendy dark-horse pick to go on a deep postseason run, though. Hovering around .500 and in play-in-tournament territory isn't living up to those expectations.
On the surface, that might not seem like such a big deal. Banchero is 23. Suggs and Wagner are both 24. Bane doesn't turn 28 until the end of June. Based on ages alone, they'd seemingly have the next half-decade to play together through their respective primes.
The NBA's second apron will make that difficult if not impossible, though.
Why This Magic Core Might Be Short-Lived
The Magic had already signed Wagner and Banchero to max contracts and signed Suggs to a five-year, $150 million deal when they acquired Bane's near-max contract this past offseason. They weren't deterred by the recent struggles of the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns' respective Big Threes. They traded for Bane to assemble a loaded starting five, albeit an increasingly expensive one.
It's only about to get worse for Orlando, too.
With Suggs and Wagner missing a ton of time due to injuries this year, Anthony Black is wrapping up a breakout season. He's averaging a career-high 15.3 points per game after putting up only 9.4 per game last year. He couldn't have timed it much better.
This offseason, Black becomes eligible to sign an extension. The Magic would be lucky to get him for less than $25-30 million per season. Adding that to a core of Banchero, Wagner, Suggs and Bane starting in 2027-28 would be financially unsustainable, though.
Wagner, Bane, Suggs and Banchero alone are projected to earn nearly $164.5 million in 2027-28. It's too far out to know exactly where the 2027-28 cap will land, but current projections put it at $173.25 million. Black's new contract will push the Magic far over the 2027-28 cap regardless of where it ultimately winds up.
The bigger issues for Orlando will be the luxury tax (projected $210.5 million), first apron ($219.5 million) and second apron ($232.8 million). Adding Black at even a $25 million starting salary would put the Magic at nearly $190 million committed to only five players.
The good news is that the Magic don't have many more players under contract through 2027-28 as of yet. They do have Wendell Carter Jr. ($19.5 million), but he'd be on an effectively contract since the Magic also have a $21 million team option on him in 2028-29. Beyond that, it's just Jonathan Isaac's non-guaranteed $14.5 million contract and cheap team options on Tristan Da Silva ($6.1 million) and Jase Richardson ($3.3 million).
That adds up quickly given the Magic's starting point, though. Carter, Da Silva and Richardson alone would put them in spitting distance of the first apron and in real danger of crossing into the second apron once they fill out the remainder of their roster.
What Is The Magic's Way Out?
Isaac's contract would only become guaranteed in 2027-28 if he plays in 52 games next season, so that could be one easy escape hatch. Dumping Carter's contract shouldn't be difficult either, but the Magic would have to decide whether to go center-less with Banchero and Wagner or find another option.
The bigger question is whether a core of Wagner, Banchero, Suggs, Bane and Black is financially sustainable even if the Magic do dump Isaac and Banchero. After all, Da Silva will be extension-eligible in 2027-28, so costs could keep mounting for Orlando.
Since Black's rookie-scale contract doesn't expire until after the 2026-27 season, the Magic have one year to get their books in check before they're truly in hot financial water. But their relatively disappointing 2025-26 campaign could have them thinking twice about their decision to build around this group in general.
Black's emergence begs the question of whether the Magic need both Suggs and Bane. They each bring different strengths to the table—Suggs is an elite defender, while Bane's three-point shooting helps Orlando's floor spacing—but if the Magic start all three together, one of Wagner or Banchero would have to play center.
Suggs has missed at least 25 games in four of his five NBA seasons and is a mediocre three-point shooter. With Banchero, Wagner and Black also not scorching the nets from deep, the Magic need to ask themselves whether they need to add more three-point shooting to their starting lineup somehow. Flipping Suggs for someone who can help more in that department could go a long way toward fixing Orlando's mediocre offense.
The Magic might be tempted to give this group one more chance to prove they’re worth keeping together, particularly now that Bane has settled into his new squad. If Wagner stays healthier next year than he did this season, the Magic could go right back to being the dark horse that they looked like coming into the year.
But if they can't crack the top of the East in 2026-27, they'll have major financial incentive to explore breaking apart this core within the next 12-18 months.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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