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Tarik Skubal returned to the Detroit Tigers starting rotation quicker than even the most optimistic minds projected. He was good, not great last weekend in his first start since April 29, going 4 2/3 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Cleveland Guardians that dropped the Tigers 9.5 games behind their American League Central rivals.
The reigning Cy Young winner’s unprecedented return from surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow is on paper great news for a franchise that is rapidly approaching a crossroads. A surprising stumble out of the gate for Detroit immediately lowered high expectations for this year and made it clear that a third straight trip to the postseason would only manifest given a huge turnaround. Skubal is in the last year of his deal with the club and figures to capture an enormous price on the open market, and the assumption is that the lefty ace will be dealt before the trade deadline.
Sitting here in mid-June, that still feels like the safe bet.
But the situation is cloudy. Obviously Detroit wants to get a maximum return for their asset and knows that once the offseason hits, it’s very likely they’ll get nothing. Yet it doesn’t feel entirely prudent to punt on this season and wave the white flag.
The Tigers are currently 30-43 and trail both the Guardians and Chicago White Sox by 9 games in the division. They are within shouting distance (6 games) of the final wild card spot. There are plenty of data points to suggest that flatly, this is not a very good baseball team.
Yet A.J. Hinch’s team has won 8 of their last 13 contests and are showing at least detectable signs of life. Much of that is due to a spate of key players returning from an injury outbreak that derailed the opening months of the season. In addition to Skubal, Casey Mize has been able to climb the mound again. An offense that left much to be desired has proven more formidable with Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres back in it.
Throw in Colt Keith, homerless until last week, hitting four long balls over the past four games—in addition to Spencer Torkelson getting hot—and the product looks a lot more like it was supposed to look.
Detroit can trade Skubal at any time. They have not to this point, including swerving last offseason to run it back when some forecasted them to pull the trigger on a rotational restructure. Yet it still feels too early.
As a result there’s a bit of an odd situation brewing. The best long-term thing for the franchise may, in fact, to fall into another slide that completely dooms any rose-colored glasses from assessing the situation and riding the Skubal train for a few more months. The most desired outcome, of course, is for a healthy Tigers roster to stay hot and vault themselves right back in contention. That too would make the decision a bit easier.
What will be absolutely brutal, though, is if Detroit wins just enough to turn their decision-making process into maximum pain. Say for example they get within 5.5 games of the division in the last week of July and Skubal is dealing. Fans are going to be irate if Skubal is shipped out of town then and the what-ifs will be haunting. Yet there is no guarantee that keeping him in hopes to mount another magical late-season run, like the one done back in 2024, won’t age like milk left out in the hot August sun if Detroit finishes outside of the playoff picture.
So in short, the Tigers are in this awkward in-between stage. It may never be easier to make the Skubal decision than it is right now. Yet they can’t and won’t make it right now. Instead the team will wait a bit to see if things get better or worse, hoping the call will become clearer.
Purgatory isn’t the worst place to be yet it’s far from comfortable.
Continue reading...
The reigning Cy Young winner’s unprecedented return from surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow is on paper great news for a franchise that is rapidly approaching a crossroads. A surprising stumble out of the gate for Detroit immediately lowered high expectations for this year and made it clear that a third straight trip to the postseason would only manifest given a huge turnaround. Skubal is in the last year of his deal with the club and figures to capture an enormous price on the open market, and the assumption is that the lefty ace will be dealt before the trade deadline.
Sitting here in mid-June, that still feels like the safe bet.
But the situation is cloudy. Obviously Detroit wants to get a maximum return for their asset and knows that once the offseason hits, it’s very likely they’ll get nothing. Yet it doesn’t feel entirely prudent to punt on this season and wave the white flag.
The Tigers are currently 30-43 and trail both the Guardians and Chicago White Sox by 9 games in the division. They are within shouting distance (6 games) of the final wild card spot. There are plenty of data points to suggest that flatly, this is not a very good baseball team.
Yet A.J. Hinch’s team has won 8 of their last 13 contests and are showing at least detectable signs of life. Much of that is due to a spate of key players returning from an injury outbreak that derailed the opening months of the season. In addition to Skubal, Casey Mize has been able to climb the mound again. An offense that left much to be desired has proven more formidable with Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres back in it.
Throw in Colt Keith, homerless until last week, hitting four long balls over the past four games—in addition to Spencer Torkelson getting hot—and the product looks a lot more like it was supposed to look.
What will the Tigers do with Skubal?
Detroit can trade Skubal at any time. They have not to this point, including swerving last offseason to run it back when some forecasted them to pull the trigger on a rotational restructure. Yet it still feels too early.
As a result there’s a bit of an odd situation brewing. The best long-term thing for the franchise may, in fact, to fall into another slide that completely dooms any rose-colored glasses from assessing the situation and riding the Skubal train for a few more months. The most desired outcome, of course, is for a healthy Tigers roster to stay hot and vault themselves right back in contention. That too would make the decision a bit easier.
What will be absolutely brutal, though, is if Detroit wins just enough to turn their decision-making process into maximum pain. Say for example they get within 5.5 games of the division in the last week of July and Skubal is dealing. Fans are going to be irate if Skubal is shipped out of town then and the what-ifs will be haunting. Yet there is no guarantee that keeping him in hopes to mount another magical late-season run, like the one done back in 2024, won’t age like milk left out in the hot August sun if Detroit finishes outside of the playoff picture.
So in short, the Tigers are in this awkward in-between stage. It may never be easier to make the Skubal decision than it is right now. Yet they can’t and won’t make it right now. Instead the team will wait a bit to see if things get better or worse, hoping the call will become clearer.
Purgatory isn’t the worst place to be yet it’s far from comfortable.
Continue reading...
