Where Alabama basketball lands in early USA TODAY Sports bracketology

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If the NCAA Tournament began today, where would Alabama basketball land in the final 68-team March Madness bracket?

USA TODAY Sports' analysts Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus, and Paul Myerberg have a prediction for Alabama, one that sees the Crimson Tide further down the seed line than where Nate Oats teams have been most years.

That's because Alabama (12-5 overall, 2-2 SEC) recently suffered back-to-back losses in conference play: 96-90 to previously unbeaten Vanderbilt in Nashville, followed by an ugly 92-88 home loss to unranked Texas on Saturday night at Coleman Coliseum.

Alabama responded with a big road win at Mississippi State on Tuesday, but not without finding itself down by double digits early. When the Tide got hot, they went on a 34-7 run between the end of the first half and the early moments of the second half. Alabama scored 61 points after halftime and would lead by as many as 22 in a 97-82 win in Starkville.

Labaron Philon scored a career-high 32 points in the win over Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide's ninth straight against the rival Bulldogs. Aiden Sherrell also notched a career high with 22 points, plus five rebounds.

Where is Alabama basketball in early NCAA Tournament projections?​


Myerberg, Smith and Timanus currently see Alabama as a projected No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If March Madness started today, the USA TODAY Sports experts see the Crimson Tide facing No. 12 seed High Point in a first-round game in San Diego in the South Region.

Alabama was a No. 2 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament and ended its season with a trip to the Elite Eight. A year earlier, the Tide were a No. 4 seed and reached the Final Four for the first time in program history. Alabama's lowest NCAA Tournament seed under Nate Oats was in 2022 when the Tide were a No. 6 seed.

The Duke Blue Devils are the projected top seed in the South Region. The Arizona Wildcats are the top overall seed in USA TODAY Sports' projections, and the UConn Huskies and Michigan Wolverines also project as No. 1 regional seeds.

Alabama is ranked No. 18 in this week's Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll.


Nate Oats reveals Alabama injury updates after Mississippi State win https://t.co/cyyEd1QkKzpic.twitter.com/2MaTS0xA7r

— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) January 14, 2026

Which SEC teams will make 2026 NCAA Tournament? USA TODAY Sports' prediction​


Alabama is one of nine SEC teams that Myerberg, Smith and Timanus see reaching the NCAA Tournament.

Alabama basketball schedule​



Social media reacts to Alabama's road win vs. Mississippi State https://t.co/uMRRa3jE42pic.twitter.com/Y97c9kBfzC

— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) January 14, 2026

Alabama will face the Oklahoma Sooners at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman Saturday. Tipoff for Alabama-Oklahoma is noon CT. The game will be televised on SEC Network. Oklahoma (11-6, 1-3) is unranked in the top 25 polls.

Here's a game by game look at Alabama basketball's 2025-26 schedule.

  • Nov. 3: vs. North Dakota (W, 91-62)
  • Nov. 8: at St. John's (W, 103-96)
  • Nov. 13: vs. Purdue (L, 87-80)
  • Nov. 19: vs. Illinois (W, 90-86)
  • Nov. 24: vs. Gonzaga (L, 95-85)
  • Nov. 25: vs. UNLV (W, 115-76)
  • Nov. 26: vs. Maryland (W, 105-72)
  • Dec. 3: vs. Clemson (W, 90-84)
  • Dec. 7: vs. UTSA (W, 97-55)
  • Dec. 13: vs. Arizona (L, 96-75)
  • Dec. 17: vs. South Florida (W, 104-93)
  • Dec. 21: vs. Kennesaw State (W, 92-81)
  • Dec. 29: vs. Yale (W, 102-78)
  • Jan. 3: vs. Kentucky (W, 89-74)
  • Jan. 7: at Vanderbilt (L, 96-90)
  • Jan. 10: vs. Texas (L, 92-88)
  • Jan. 13: at Mississippi State (W, 97-82)
  • Jan. 17: at Oklahoma, noon, SEC Network
  • Jan. 24: vs. Tennessee, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
  • Jan. 27: vs. Missouri, 8 p.m., SEC Network
  • Feb. 1: at Florida, noon, ABC
  • Feb. 4: vs. Texas A&M, 6 p.m., SEC Network
  • Feb. 7: at Auburn, 3 p.m., TBA
  • Feb. 11: at Ole Miss, 6 p.m., SEC Network
  • Feb. 14: vs. South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
  • Feb. 18: vs. Arkansas, 6 p.m., TBA
  • Feb. 21: at LSU, 5 p.m., SEC Network
  • Feb. 25: vs. Mississippi State, TBA
  • Feb. 28: at Tennessee, TBA
  • March 3: at Georgia, 5:30 p.m., ESPNews
  • March 7: vs. Auburn, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Follow us @RollTideWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama basketball on pace for lower seed in NCAA Tournament

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