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While Tarik Skubal getting traded to the Dodgers isn’t good news for any team trying to prevent Los Angeles from winning its third consecutive championship this fall, it could be beneficial for the Mets.
The teams that fell short in the race for Skubal are now desperate to pivot and acquire one of the top starters remaining on the trade market.
That’s where New York comes into the picture with Clay Holmes and Freddy Peralta.
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It would be a shocker if those two right-handers weren’t moved before Monday’s deadline. Holmes is essentially a rental. Extension talks between Holmes and the Mets have fizzled and he has a player option for next year that he’s likely to decline. Peralta, meanwhile, is set to be a free agent this winter.
There are other starters available around the league, but the Skubal trade should be the move that opens the floodgates. Now, the next tier of starting pitchers — a group that includes Holmes and Peralta — is the best pool of pitchers for those buyers to pick from.
The Mets need to move Peralta and Holmes, but their leverage in trade talks stems from contenders’ need for pitching. Whether contenders want to address a weakness or bolster a strength, the Mets are poised to cash in.
Holmes will bring the Mets a greater return. He was pitching like an ace (2.39 ERA) before he got hit by a comebacker in May and fractured his fibula. The right-hander has proven he can handle a pressurized market like New York and he carries a higher floor than most options due to his ability to come out of the bullpen as well.
Some teams may be apprehensive about trading for a pitcher on the injured list, but Holmes already believes that he’s ready to pitch in big-league action. That was the message he conveyed when speaking to reporters in the Mets’ clubhouse on Saturday.
Still, the Mets have Holmes scheduled to make another rehab start with the Mets’ High-A affiliate in Brooklyn on Sunday. That plan, of course, is subject to change. If trade talks intensify to a point where a move could be imminent, Holmes would immediately be scratched.
That’s what happened with Peralta on Friday when he was pulled back from making his scheduled start against the Marlins at Citi Field. He hasn’t been traded yet, but with interest spiking around the league, the Mets considered it prudent to make sure Peralta didn’t get hurt (while preserving his arm for whatever team trades for him in the coming days).
Peralta (4.99 ERA) was a disappointment for the Mets this season. When New York traded for the starter from the Brewers this past winter, they thought they were getting an ace. Even with his unattractive numbers this year, other teams will consider Peralta’s track record from his time in Milwaukee (3.59 ERA over 931 innings) as the rationale for taking a chance on bringing that version back down the stretch.
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The Dodgers sent a trio of prospects to Detroit in the Skubal deal on Saturday night, including two players ranked in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list: outfielder Zyhir Hope (No. 25) and pitcher River Ryan (No. 68). The third piece of the package is right-hander Brady Smith, the Dodgers’ No. 17 prospect. New York’s return for Holmes or Peralta won’t equate to what Los Angeles had to give up for a two-time Cy Young Award winner, but the Mets can use it to bump up their asking price. It’s already been reported that the Mets are seeking one top-100 prospect for Peralta, which means they’d want even more for Holmes.
Again, now that Skubal is off the board, pitchers like Holmes and Peralta are in the spotlight on the trade market. They’re not the only Mets available either. After trading reliever A.J. Minter to the Twins, New York is likely to move fellow lefty Brooks Raley. Relievers Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán have also been included in trade rumors this week.
When it comes to position players, keep an eye on outfielders Tyrone Taylor and Luis Robert Jr. Taylor has hit seven home runs in his last 41 at-bats and is batting .354 with a 1.311 OPS since returning from the injured list in late June.
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