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MILWAUKEE — During Freddy Peralta’s pregame warmups in the Mets’ bullpen at American Family Field on Monday night, the Brewers played a tribute video for the right-hander’s return to Milwaukee on the Jumbotron.
Those highlights showed everything the Mets thought they were getting when they traded two top prospects for Peralta this past winter: one of the best starting pitchers in the National League and a potential ace.
That couldn’t be more different than the version of Peralta that the Mets have had atop their rotation all season.
Peralta has been a huge disappointment. He has a 5.01 ERA over 21 starts. As of Tuesday night, that’s the fourth-worst mark of any qualified pitcher in baseball. The same pitcher who led the NL in wins last season — part of a career year with the Brewers — is tied for the most losses in MLB (nine).
This nightmare season for Peralta has turned into an even worse scenario for the Mets ahead of the trade deadline. Not only has Peralta played a role in the Mets’ sinking in the standings, but his trade value has likely dipped to new lows recently.
Then again, even with Peralta’s ghastly numbers, the Mets should still be able to get a valuable piece or two back for Peralta ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Here are three reasons why:
Peralta’s track record
As poorly as Peralta has pitched this year, it’s not enough to wash away all the success he has had with Milwaukee.
From 2021 to 2025, when Peralta was a full-time member of the Brewers’ rotation, he had a 3.30 ERA over 141 games. That’s better than all but 14 other pitchers who threw 500-plus innings in that span.
There will be other pitching coaches and pitching departments eager to take a shot at fixing Peralta. Maybe they believe he’s one tweak away from getting back to that form.
Because Peralta is only under contract for the rest of this season (at a prorated $8 million), he’s a classic buy-low, low-risk, high-reward type of acquisition for contenders looking to bolster their rotation.
His mindset is a factor here, too. As dark as these days have been for Peralta, and as much as he’s at a loss to explain why he’s struggled to this extent, this pitcher still believes in himself and his stuff.
“I know that I’m better than great,” Peralta said on Monday night.
Under the hood numbers
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Tuesday that while Peralta’s trade value keeps falling, “some rivals blame the Mets defense and cite solid secondary numbers.” That means the public perception of Peralta’s value — with the recency bias reflecting his clunker in Milwaukee on Monday — doesn’t match up with how the Mets and other teams view this player.
Peralta’s batting average on balls in play stands out. His .309 BABIP is tied for the 11th-highest mark among all qualified pitchers this year, an indication that he could have better batted-ball luck moving forward. It’s the highest of his career as a starter. Also, Peralta’s expected ERA is 3.83.
Is that enough to outweigh the concerns attached to some of Peralta’s other metrics? That’s up for other teams to decide.
Contenders need starting pitching
Peralta isn’t considered one of the best starters on the block anymore, but in a seller’s market, he could end up being a hot commodity.
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If top-tier starters like Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and more stay put over these next few weeks, pitchers like Peralta will become more desirable. The same applies to his teammate, Clay Holmes, who is still working his way back from a fractured fibula while on the injured list. In fact, Holmes’ value appears to be rising because of how effective he was before his injury. Like the rest of the Mets’ rentals on expiring deals — Peralta, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley and Tyrone Taylor — Holmes needs to be dealt unless New York extends him before the deadline.
The Mets certainly won’t get back as much as they gave up for Peralta, but if multiple teams show interest, they would be able to capitalize on teams bidding against each other.
Take the David Peterson deal as an example from last month. The Cubs were desperate for pitching because of injuries, and the Mets were able to acquire a legitimate prospect in return for a rental who was having a down year.
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