My breakdown of the fights..
Main card
* Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar (c) vs Cain Velasquez
Fresh off his victory over Shane Carwin to regain sole custody of the UFC heavyweight title, Lesnar will be thrown right back into the fire as he faces former Arizona State University wrestling standout and rising star Velasquez; who in my humble opinion poses the most serious threat to Lesnar's title yet.
Velasquez (8-0, 7 TKOs) possesses a dangerous mix of stellar wrestling ability (the former Sun Devil finished fourth and fifth nationally in his two seasons in Tempe, while wrestling in an absolutely loaded heavyweight class that featured legends Cole Konrad, Greg Wagner and Steve Mocco), and stellar striking, mixing one punch knockout power and kickboxing skills. He also is notoriously hard to take down and keep down, spending a grand total of 10 seconds on his back in eight Mixed Martial Arts fights.
Lesnar (5-1, 2 TKOs, 1 sub) will be coming in to the fight with one major thing riding in his favor-- his size. Come fight time, he should be riding a 40 pound weight advantage, and there is a chance that he could use that size to his advantage. However, Velasquez is no slouch to mat time with bigger people, as even in wrestling he was a small heavyweight and would go against legitimate 285 pounders like Konrad and Mocco. Lesnar also does feature some bullish power behind his punches.
The big question marks remain this: can Lesnar use his size advantage and put Velasquez in a spot he's yet to face (on his back) or can Velasquez use his speed, quickness, stamina and kicks to wear and break Lesnar down physically and mentally?
After seeing Lesnar get his face pounded to mince meat in the first round of his fight with Carwin, only to rebound and capitalize on Carwin's stamina dump to steal the win, it's hard to ever count Lesnar out. However, where Velasquez has the power in his hands that Carwin does, one thing he doesn't do is gas out and he is the master at pacing himself. I see him working Lesnar over for two and a half rounds, mixing leg and body kicks in with glancing blows, before finishing him off by technical knockout in the third round.
* Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
After spending years establishing himself as one of the top unsigned welterweights in the sport, Shields will attempt to cut his teeth in the majors, after being lured away from the Strikeforce promotion following his victory over Dan Henderson in April.
Shields' debut isn't your typical promotional debut, it comes with a high reward; as he has been guaranteed a shot at the welterweight title and the Josh Koscheck-Georges St. Pierre winner.
To get to that point however, he'll have to earn his shot, and facing him is a grizzled tough veteran of the sport in Kampmann.
The Dutch born former kickboxer comes in to the fight riding an impressive record of 17-3, including an 8-2 mark in the UFC. While known for his Muay Thai and kickboxing background, Kampmann also has an incredibly underrated ground game, which is Shields' biggest strenghts. He also has a lofty advantage in the stand up.
Ultimately, I think Shields has a grappling advantage that should be enough to win this fight, however Kampmann has been spoiler before, ruining Paulo Thiago's potential title shot and defeating former WEC welterweight kingpin Carlos Condit in his UFC debut. Shields will do enough to etch out a win in this one and earn a title shot at the Koscheck - St. Pierre winner.
* Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
This fight may be the moment of truth for the original Ultimate Fighter, as Sanchez finds himself in a career crossroads.
After losing back to back fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch in 2007, Sanchez decided it was time for a change.. in more ways than one.
First, he decided to shake his camp landscape by leaving long time trainer Greg Jackson's camp and his birth home of Alberquerque and headed west to San Diego, where he trained at the Arena and University of Jiu Jitsu with Saul Riberio.
Also, he elected to drop to lightweight, moving from the welterweight division where he'd spent virtually his entire MMA career at.
Initially, the drop to lightweight was met with a fair amount of success, as he scrapped to victories over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. His victories were enough motivation for Dana White and Joe Silva to put him in a title fight with BJ Penn.
From there, it all went down hill. Sanchez was bludgeoned by Penn, suffering the first stoppage of his career. Following the loss, he made the decision to move back to welterweight. Unfortunately, his return to his welterweight roots were met with cold results as he was defeated resoundingly by John Hathaway. Following his second straight defeat, he made the choice to move back home, and back to his roots in Alberquerque and Jackson.
In spite this, it could be do or die for Sanchez. While his role on TUF 1 might buy him brief immunity in the face of a third straight loss, it's not a position he wants to put himself in.
Meanwhile, Thiago finds himself in a tough spot as well. One fight ago, he was a victory away from possibly finding himself in the short mix of challengers for Georges St. Pierre's title. However, Martin Kampmann brought about an end to his immediate title ramifications, and dropped him back a few notches. With a win over Sanchez, Thiago certainly can regain some of his footing and possibly put himself in the mix yet again.
Three years ago, I would have called this fight even on paper. However, something seems to be missing in Sanchez. I believe returning to Jackson was the best move he could have made for his career, however I still think that in some ways Penn stole his will and the fighter who faced Hathaway seemed much more gunshy to engage.
I see Thiago picking him apart much like Hathaway did en route to a decisive unanimous decision win.
More later!