UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez

Brian in Mesa

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Main card

* Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar (c) vs Cain Velasquez

* Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

* Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

* Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

* Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

* Middleweight bout: Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen

* Middleweight bout: Patrick Côté vs. Tom Lawlor

Preliminary card

* Welterweight bout: Mike Guymon vs. Daniel Roberts

* Lightweight bout: Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor

* Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs. Dong Yi Yang

* Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel
 

Joe L

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God, how I hope Lesnar gets his butt kicked!
 
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Diamondback Jay

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My breakdown of the fights..

Main card

* Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar (c) vs Cain Velasquez

Fresh off his victory over Shane Carwin to regain sole custody of the UFC heavyweight title, Lesnar will be thrown right back into the fire as he faces former Arizona State University wrestling standout and rising star Velasquez; who in my humble opinion poses the most serious threat to Lesnar's title yet.

Velasquez (8-0, 7 TKOs) possesses a dangerous mix of stellar wrestling ability (the former Sun Devil finished fourth and fifth nationally in his two seasons in Tempe, while wrestling in an absolutely loaded heavyweight class that featured legends Cole Konrad, Greg Wagner and Steve Mocco), and stellar striking, mixing one punch knockout power and kickboxing skills. He also is notoriously hard to take down and keep down, spending a grand total of 10 seconds on his back in eight Mixed Martial Arts fights.

Lesnar (5-1, 2 TKOs, 1 sub) will be coming in to the fight with one major thing riding in his favor-- his size. Come fight time, he should be riding a 40 pound weight advantage, and there is a chance that he could use that size to his advantage. However, Velasquez is no slouch to mat time with bigger people, as even in wrestling he was a small heavyweight and would go against legitimate 285 pounders like Konrad and Mocco. Lesnar also does feature some bullish power behind his punches.

The big question marks remain this: can Lesnar use his size advantage and put Velasquez in a spot he's yet to face (on his back) or can Velasquez use his speed, quickness, stamina and kicks to wear and break Lesnar down physically and mentally?

After seeing Lesnar get his face pounded to mince meat in the first round of his fight with Carwin, only to rebound and capitalize on Carwin's stamina dump to steal the win, it's hard to ever count Lesnar out. However, where Velasquez has the power in his hands that Carwin does, one thing he doesn't do is gas out and he is the master at pacing himself. I see him working Lesnar over for two and a half rounds, mixing leg and body kicks in with glancing blows, before finishing him off by technical knockout in the third round.

* Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

After spending years establishing himself as one of the top unsigned welterweights in the sport, Shields will attempt to cut his teeth in the majors, after being lured away from the Strikeforce promotion following his victory over Dan Henderson in April.

Shields' debut isn't your typical promotional debut, it comes with a high reward; as he has been guaranteed a shot at the welterweight title and the Josh Koscheck-Georges St. Pierre winner.

To get to that point however, he'll have to earn his shot, and facing him is a grizzled tough veteran of the sport in Kampmann.

The Dutch born former kickboxer comes in to the fight riding an impressive record of 17-3, including an 8-2 mark in the UFC. While known for his Muay Thai and kickboxing background, Kampmann also has an incredibly underrated ground game, which is Shields' biggest strenghts. He also has a lofty advantage in the stand up.

Ultimately, I think Shields has a grappling advantage that should be enough to win this fight, however Kampmann has been spoiler before, ruining Paulo Thiago's potential title shot and defeating former WEC welterweight kingpin Carlos Condit in his UFC debut. Shields will do enough to etch out a win in this one and earn a title shot at the Koscheck - St. Pierre winner.

* Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

This fight may be the moment of truth for the original Ultimate Fighter, as Sanchez finds himself in a career crossroads.

After losing back to back fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch in 2007, Sanchez decided it was time for a change.. in more ways than one.

First, he decided to shake his camp landscape by leaving long time trainer Greg Jackson's camp and his birth home of Alberquerque and headed west to San Diego, where he trained at the Arena and University of Jiu Jitsu with Saul Riberio.

Also, he elected to drop to lightweight, moving from the welterweight division where he'd spent virtually his entire MMA career at.

Initially, the drop to lightweight was met with a fair amount of success, as he scrapped to victories over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. His victories were enough motivation for Dana White and Joe Silva to put him in a title fight with BJ Penn.

From there, it all went down hill. Sanchez was bludgeoned by Penn, suffering the first stoppage of his career. Following the loss, he made the decision to move back to welterweight. Unfortunately, his return to his welterweight roots were met with cold results as he was defeated resoundingly by John Hathaway. Following his second straight defeat, he made the choice to move back home, and back to his roots in Alberquerque and Jackson.

In spite this, it could be do or die for Sanchez. While his role on TUF 1 might buy him brief immunity in the face of a third straight loss, it's not a position he wants to put himself in.

Meanwhile, Thiago finds himself in a tough spot as well. One fight ago, he was a victory away from possibly finding himself in the short mix of challengers for Georges St. Pierre's title. However, Martin Kampmann brought about an end to his immediate title ramifications, and dropped him back a few notches. With a win over Sanchez, Thiago certainly can regain some of his footing and possibly put himself in the mix yet again.

Three years ago, I would have called this fight even on paper. However, something seems to be missing in Sanchez. I believe returning to Jackson was the best move he could have made for his career, however I still think that in some ways Penn stole his will and the fighter who faced Hathaway seemed much more gunshy to engage.

I see Thiago picking him apart much like Hathaway did en route to a decisive unanimous decision win.

More later!
 

Dr. Jones

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I am an MMA realist..... and love the sport. I know quite a few fighters, and even a couple on this season of TUF.

Brock Lesnar is the human stunt double to an M1A2 Tank.

I am pretty sure he is quicker that CV and I am very sure he is stronger. Of course anything can happen in MMA..... I don't see how anyone could bet on CV beating Lesnar.

In fact..... I believe people are talking themselves into it. I think BL is an 80% favorite in this fight. And probably 90%.

Bigger
Stronger
Better Wrestler <-- Yes.... He is. 2-time big 10 champ. National Champ (00), Runner up (99). JUCO champ in 98.

Probably Quicker at the takedown but not to punch.
Experience in the limelight.

And he's an a$$hole.

It's no contest.
 
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SunsTzu

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God, how I hope Lesnar get his butt kicked!

Same, and while Lesnar's advantages have been stated I don't think he's as skilled all round as Cain. A lot of Lesnar's success is due to his strength advantage and how weak the heavy weight division is. I think Fedor would likely beat him(even though he's getting older) but that's a fight not likely to happen anytime soon.
 

Dr. Jones

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Old Fedor crushes him..... No doubt.

He doesn't have the jujitsu chops to compete at that level.

And your correct...... The Heavyweight division is trash.
 
OP
OP
Shzm13

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Lesnar should've lost to Carwin. Like someone stated, Cains got arguably the best endurance in the sport and he won't gas out.

When I hear people mention the size difference, I can't help but think back to Cain-v-Kongo when everyone was saying the same thing and Cain ended up dominating him.

I got Cain in 3
 

Dr. Jones

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Absolute domination..... Brock has NO CARDIO. Damn! The dude looked like a rookie right there. lol

Pretty embarrassing.

Awesome job by Velasquez. He dominated. And that Knee he threw was viscous! Pretty damn impressive.
 

Dr. Jones

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Did you see that nasty cut on Brocks cheek!!!! DAMN!!!
 

SunsTzu

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Absolute domination..... Brock has NO CARDIO. Damn! The dude looked like a rookie right there. lol

Pretty embarrassing.

Awesome job by Velasquez. He dominated. And that Knee he threw was viscous! Pretty damn impressive.

He has no stand up either. Loved watching him get exposed. Lesnar reminds me of a more athletic Mark Coleman who basically just laid on top of people to get his belt, Lesnar at least has some ground striking though.

Wonder who Cain will fight next, seems like he can walk through just about anyone in the division after his past few fights.
 

Brian in Mesa

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Main card

* Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar (c) vs Cain Velasquez

Velasquez defeated Lesnar via TKO (Punches) at 4:12 of Round 1.

* Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Shields defeated Kampmann via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27).

* Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Sanchez defeated Thiago via unanimous decision (30-26, 29-28, 29-28).

* Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Hamill defeated Ortiz via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

* Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Schaub defeated Gonzaga via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

* Middleweight bout: Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen

McGee defeated Jensen via submission (arm triangle choke) at 1:21 of round 3.

* Middleweight bout: Patrick Côté vs. Tom Lawlor

Lawlor defeated Côté via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Preliminary card

* Welterweight bout: Mike Guymon vs. Daniel Roberts

Roberts defeated Guymon via submission (anaconda choke) at 1:13 of round 1.

* Lightweight bout: Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor

Stout defeated Taylor via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27).

* Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs. Dong Yi Yang

Camozzi defeated Yang via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28).

* Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel

Madsen defeated Yvel via TKO (punches) at 1:48 of round 1.
 

Diamondback Jay

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I am an MMA realist..... and love the sport. I know quite a few fighters, and even a couple on this season of TUF.

Brock Lesnar is the human stunt double to an M1A2 Tank.

I am pretty sure he is quicker that CV and I am very sure he is stronger. Of course anything can happen in MMA..... I don't see how anyone could bet on CV beating Lesnar.

In fact..... I believe people are talking themselves into it. I think BL is an 80% favorite in this fight. And probably 90%.

Bigger
Stronger
Better Wrestler <-- Yes.... He is. 2-time big 10 champ. National Champ (00), Runner up (99). JUCO champ in 98.

Probably Quicker at the takedown but not to punch.
Experience in the limelight.

And he's an a$$hole.

It's no contest.


I'm a realist too. I've been following this sport a long time, and seen it evolve both in talent and popularity to levels it's never before reached.

I also know a few people in the sport.

Realism was, seeing enough of Velasquez's fights and wrestling meets, he's ALWAYS been a tough guy to get down and keep down. In the MMA circles, he has lightning in his fists, is extremely accurate, has great stamina and good sub skills/defense.

Not biased.. I thought he matched up well with Lesnar and had the advantage in many ways.

Granted, it's MMA..Nothing surprises me anymore. However, I felt pretty confident.
 

Joe L

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Cain knocked some humility into Brock. That gash will be a reminder to not talk out the side of his neck. Cain IS the one drinking his Corona right now!!!!!!


Woohoo!
 
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