Trump's Election and the Markets

Russ Smith

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Well huge bounce back today especially for nasdaq. I doubt we'll see much follow through but would be nice.

And yes I think Trump is doing everything he can to try and delay so it's not on his watch.

And yes if the recession hits after he's gone and you can prove he caused it, he'll just blame whoever took over.
 

82CardsGrad

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dscher

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In the face of shrinking corporate profits...tariff wars and potential interest rate cuts (which are enacted by the Fed when they see a weakening economy)...somehow all of that argues for a higher stock market... Can you say bubble?
Bubble within a bubble.. we still have not fully recovered since the financial crisis and the QE did nothing but create the illusion of strength in an economy. Interesting that we have the strongest economy ever as our president claims but will be cutting rates and going more than likely to zero or possibly negative.. Hmm. The fed is also currently reducing their balance sheet which also shows liquidity coming out of the market.. Just like the lost decade in Japan. The longer the can gets kicked down the road, the more damage will occur. Imo of course.
 

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Things are not looking good, down 800 yesterday, we'll see what happens. This trade war may be coming back to bite us.
 

Russ Smith

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Things are not looking good, down 800 yesterday, we'll see what happens. This trade war may be coming back to bite us.


worse today in a way because it started out good and has reversed to DOW down 100 now.
 

Absolute Zero

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worse today in a way because it started out good and has reversed to DOW down 100 now.


What do you think of this guy's take?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ut-to-go-ballistic-strategist-says-2019-08-15

If I am reading this right, he is saying the bottom is going to fall out of the bond market, which would hurt those who have been trying to play it safe by staying out of stocks. You never know what kind of agenda guys like this have, are they trying to call strikes, or trying to get everyone to freak out and buy gold? :shrug:
 

Russ Smith

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What do you think of this guy's take?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ut-to-go-ballistic-strategist-says-2019-08-15

If I am reading this right, he is saying the bottom is going to fall out of the bond market, which would hurt those who have been trying to play it safe by staying out of stocks. You never know what kind of agenda guys like this have, are they trying to call strikes, or trying to get everyone to freak out and buy gold? :shrug:


I don't know if it's going to be that bad but it will be worse than it needed to be because of the tax change and the tariffs. We just started with a new advisor for Wells Fargo, she actually said she thinks Trump is getting too much blame on the economy but she said we expect 2-3 pullbacks by the end of the year. She said a recession will happen eventually and probably sooner than would have been and probably deeper because of Trumps' policies. She said it was inevitable anyways but he's made it worse.

Remember he was talking 4 and even 5 percent GDP, we're fighting to stay above 2 now, he can't blame the fed for that, well he can and probably will.

Like I keep saying my real concern is the push to get the Fed to lower interest rates is taking out the "safety net" for the eventual recession. If rates are already really low there's not much more you can do.

When I first heard Yang talking about a giving every working adult 1000 dollars(universal basic income) I thought he was nuts but after hearing him explain it the idea isn't as nutty as I thought. He wants to tax high tech companies like Apple, Amazon etc that are currently paying damn near zero in taxes, and use that money for the UBI. Of course the idea is people will then spend that money which both stimulates the economy, and allows people to do things. If they want to save, and some will(I probably would) ok but many will spend it and that's good for our economy. The companies have more than enough money to do it. I don't know how he derived at 1000, 12K a year seems a bit high, but I'm warming to the idea.
 

Absolute Zero

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I don't know if it's going to be that bad but it will be worse than it needed to be because of the tax change and the tariffs. We just started with a new advisor for Wells Fargo, she actually said she thinks Trump is getting too much blame on the economy but she said we expect 2-3 pullbacks by the end of the year. She said a recession will happen eventually and probably sooner than would have been and probably deeper because of Trumps' policies. She said it was inevitable anyways but he's made it worse.

Remember he was talking 4 and even 5 percent GDP, we're fighting to stay above 2 now, he can't blame the fed for that, well he can and probably will.

Like I keep saying my real concern is the push to get the Fed to lower interest rates is taking out the "safety net" for the eventual recession. If rates are already really low there's not much more you can do.

When I first heard Yang talking about a giving every working adult 1000 dollars(universal basic income) I thought he was nuts but after hearing him explain it the idea isn't as nutty as I thought. He wants to tax high tech companies like Apple, Amazon etc that are currently paying damn near zero in taxes, and use that money for the UBI. Of course the idea is people will then spend that money which both stimulates the economy, and allows people to do things. If they want to save, and some will(I probably would) ok but many will spend it and that's good for our economy. The companies have more than enough money to do it. I don't know how he derived at 1000, 12K a year seems a bit high, but I'm warming to the idea.


I agree, interest rates already seem pretty dang low to me. Not sure why he keeps banging that drum.

And Andrew Yang has some awesome ideas. Some seem crazy at first blush, but the policies we have now are clearly crazy. I am all for trying something different. Send me my $1,000/mo please and I will spend it on hiking supplies and hit the trail!

Automation is such that many of our jobs are being replaced by technology and that trend will continue going forward. This will affect the traditional "professions" as well. The corporations producing that technology will continue to profit, while more and more of us will be sitting home looking out the window. Might as well send us a bit of spending money. :)
 

Russ Smith

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I agree, interest rates already seem pretty dang low to me. Not sure why he keeps banging that drum.

And Andrew Yang has some awesome ideas. Some seem crazy at first blush, but the policies we have now are clearly crazy. I am all for trying something different. Send me my $1,000/mo please and I will spend it on hiking supplies and hit the trail!

Automation is such that many of our jobs are being replaced by technology and that trend will continue going forward. This will affect the traditional "professions" as well. The corporations producing that technology will continue to profit, while more and more of us will be sitting home looking out the window. Might as well send us a bit of spending money. :)


Yang was talking about it on tv and he said he actually did it himself with a few families, he gave them 1000 a month(not sure what state). One guy he said was ecstatic so he asked him are you saving it, did you go on vacation etc and he said no, I always wanted to play guitar, so I bought a guitar and I'm taking guitar lessons and I love it. Never would have done it with my own money. His point wasn't we need more guitarists just that people will find ways to use the money and be happier, less stress etc.
 

Absolute Zero

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Yang was talking about it on tv and he said he actually did it himself with a few families, he gave them 1000 a month(not sure what state). One guy he said was ecstatic so he asked him are you saving it, did you go on vacation etc and he said no, I always wanted to play guitar, so I bought a guitar and I'm taking guitar lessons and I love it. Never would have done it with my own money. His point wasn't we need more guitarists just that people will find ways to use the money and be happier, less stress etc.

Love it. If you are playing guitar, you won't have time to instigate a mass shooting right?

I heard Yang on CNN a few weeks ago. He was talking about changing the metrics of how we measure success in our country. Right now, one of the prime indicators is "GDP", Gross Domestic Product. If that is high, we are all supposedly doing well, right? But he says that it doesn't measure other important factors such as life expectancy, mental health, affordability, marriage and divorce rates, environmental quality, consumer and student debt, volunteerism, etc. He wants to factor things like that into a new measurement, and by doing so, change the goals for our society and, in turn, change society.

This makes sense on a macro and micro level. If one's business is producing great numbers, but the owner's mom dies prematurely, has kids overloaded on student loans, underemployed, family members with addiction or mental health issues, not able to afford decent housing, working too many hours, consuming toxins in our food, not volunteering, etc., that's not success or quality of life. Multiply that by 327 million similar situations, and that's the "well being" of the United States, good GDP or not.
 

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What I am amazed at is the right wing politicos I meet, that think Tariffs are bringing China to their knees. I always ask, "Who pays the tariffs?" They roll their eyes, and say, "China, obviously!" I am finding a LOT of people do not know how tariffs work. I had to explain it to a few family members, even. The best part is when one of them asked me "Where do those tariff dollars go?" Not to go off topic, but there are a contingent of Americans that support the China tariffs, that may ultimately lead to a downturn in the WORLD economy!
 

elindholm

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Never would have done it with my own money. His point wasn't we need more guitarists just that people will find ways to use the money and be happier, less stress etc.

But it's a short-term high. In a free-market economy, prices will adjust according to the money people have available to spend. UBI would quickly lead to inflation in food and housing costs, and then we're right back where we started.
 

dscher

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Ubi, imo, is the least of our economical concerns. Most people just want a fix to the woes we are experiencing as a global economy. I'm from the mindset, that we just need to hit the reset button on the whole thing. It's beyond repair... It needs a whole new engine. So it's gonna look messy on the surface.. but it's going to make for some turbulent markets, to say the least imo. So let's buckle our seatbelts..
 

dscher

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Hypothetically, what would that mean?
No idea honestly. My first guess would be a truly free and open marketplace without fed intervention. Let buyers, sellers, investors, traders decide what is best.
 
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