Trump's Election and the Markets

Russ Smith

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Story on Yahoo that says China has said they will start importing US Soybeans again and will act quickly on things they and the US agree with. this is the closest thing yet to confirmation of what Trump said happened at G20, they reached a 90 day cooling off agreement. Part of the spectacular fall yesterday was doubts that Trump was telling the truth.

So Trump has literally become the boy who cried wolf, he lies so often, that when he apparently told the truth, the markets didn't believe him and panicked and sold off dwarfing the gains from the day before.
 

Russ Smith

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Pretty remarkable comeback in the markets yesterday. The Fed said what people wanted to hear, we see what's going on and we're not totally married to consistent rate hikes. they're still expected to hike the rate in 2 weeks, but might ease up after that depending on how things are going.
 

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Pretty remarkable comeback in the markets yesterday. The Fed said what people wanted to hear, we see what's going on and we're not totally married to consistent rate hikes. they're still expected to hike the rate in 2 weeks, but might ease up after that depending on how things are going.

Bad jobs report today should also help keep the Fed at bay... who knows what the markets will do though!
 

Russ Smith

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Bad jobs report today should also help keep the Fed at bay... who knows what the markets will do though!

Nasdaq fell 3 % today, he literally has nothing to brag about anymore unless you're a racist who likes the racist stuff he's done. He has killed the markets now too.
 

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Nasdaq fell 3 % today, he literally has nothing to brag about anymore unless you're a racist who likes the racist stuff he's done. He has killed the markets now too.

He will find something to brag about...no matter how preposterous it may be. I am very interested tio see where we go from here. Unless there is a huge retail win due to holidays can't see where the good news for markets will come from.

The next earnings season may be telling.
 

Russ Smith

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He will find something to brag about...no matter how preposterous it may be. I am very interested tio see where we go from here. Unless there is a huge retail win due to holidays can't see where the good news for markets will come from.

The next earnings season may be telling.


Article on Yahoo today saying Trumps legal issues may actually help the markets. He thinks it'll be tougher for Trump to be hardline on tariffs if he's in legal peril, he'll tone down the trade war as a means of garnering sympathy. Interestingly that's exactly what he did today, he came out and started talking nicely with China about ending the trade war, not because he's winning, but because he's losing, the markets are tanking, and it's hurting his popularity. So he said on Twitter great news coming soon on China.
 

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Article on Yahoo today saying Trumps legal issues may actually help the markets. He thinks it'll be tougher for Trump to be hardline on tariffs if he's in legal peril, he'll tone down the trade war as a means of garnering sympathy. Interestingly that's exactly what he did today, he came out and started talking nicely with China about ending the trade war, not because he's winning, but because he's losing, the markets are tanking, and it's hurting his popularity. So he said on Twitter great news coming soon on China.

I don't buy that at all. Trump seems more volatile as time goes on, if his personal legal problems get worse I expect he will make his political stances even more extreme. If it gets to the point where he is likely to be removed from office he will go out banana republic style, kicking and screaming or on the brink of war.
 

Russ Smith

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I have this excel spreadsheet I use to track finances, IRA's, CD's, money market etc. I figure out the balances on the first of every month. Just did this morning and I went down about 5% in December, and that's after a pretty strong last week. And that's also with some of these funds seeing contributions during the month so it's not all in the markets. From October to now I'm down about 9% overall.

One of the worst decembers ever for the markets, last I saw it was the worst since 1931, not sure if that held up after the surge the last week.
 

iLLmatiC

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The problem is then you get into the don't time the market situation where if you still need more than 2.5% you have to figure out when to get out and back in.

Yesterday I got all ready to watch a little tv, saw the market, saw CNN talking about Trump's stupidity again, he said something else about the Fed being the problem, and I said screw it, packed a lunch and went fishing for a few hours to just get away from it. I've never seen this many experts on tv saying the same thing, the problem with this market is you can't just trade the fundamentals, you always have to account for that stupid oranage buffoon saying or doing something that hurts the market too. It did very well his first 18 months or so in office but his needless trade war started the sell off, and his insistence on attacking the fed is a problem because it causes people to panic and sell. If he'd just shut up and let the market play out, things would b much better. The economy is still good, companies are making tons of money because of the tax breaks. eventually the deficits will be a huge problem but that will be someone else's mess to clean up, he's making it much harder now than it has to be.

Makes a great opportunity for those with a long term horizon.
 

Russ Smith

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Makes a great opportunity for those with a long term horizon.

Oh absolutely I just think Trump doesn't seem to grasp how dangerous what he's doing actually is. Markets go in cycles, up and down. We were in a VERY long upcycle after a potentially horrific downcycle. the last thing we need is someone like Trump artificially pumping and dumping the markets. There's a certain aspect to the market like it builds up and then lets off pressure, and then builds up again. Trump keeps creating these artificial sell offs and spikes that are harming the markets ability to "behave normally."

Nobody really knows what the outcome of that is going to be. I keep seeing all this it's the high frequency trading, it's the algorithms etc and that all plays a role, but when what he writes on twitter conforms to the minute with market movements it becomes REALLY obvious he moves the markets.

I keep saying it but I'm pretty sure X years down the line it's going to come out that friends and maybe even family of his were making money trading his comments with advance knowledge of them coming.
 

iLLmatiC

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I wouldn't doubt it, everything is speculative when it comes to the market. I keep buying companies with strong fundamentals that are dipping. I'll let the chips fall where they may and ride this out for another 25 years.
 

Russ Smith

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I wouldn't doubt it, everything is speculative when it comes to the market. I keep buying companies with strong fundamentals that are dipping. I'll let the chips fall where they may and ride this out for another 25 years.


I agree. I'm also waiting on several companies that aren't public but presumably will be. The 2 I'm watching the closest right now are Cohesity and Illumio. I think Cohesity probably has the better chance to be a huge hit IPO but they also have raised so much financing it's not clear they NEED to go public and seem to be pushing it back. Illumio is right around the corner from me, just moved in. They seem to have transitioned from startup with issues to startup that fixed lots of things and are on the path to IPO. Cohesity is data storage and backup, Illumio is more cyber security.

I made lots of money in 17 and 18 on companies like those that were already public and growing quickly. I'm keeping tabs on all of those now because I sold them all during the downturn to transition to more stable stocks.
 

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Trump laying tariffs on Mexico on June 10. Tomorrow should be an interesting day on three markets.
 

Russ Smith

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I have this excel spreadsheet I use to track finances, IRA's, CD's, money market etc. I figure out the balances on the first of every month. Just did this morning and I went down about 5% in December, and that's after a pretty strong last week. And that's also with some of these funds seeing contributions during the month so it's not all in the markets. From October to now I'm down about 9% overall.

One of the worst decembers ever for the markets, last I saw it was the worst since 1931, not sure if that held up after the surge the last week.


May was even worse, about 6% down.
 

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May was even worse, about 6% down.

I posted in another Trump thread that the ISM index is now the lowest in 2 1/2 years... Additionally, the 10 year is about to go sub-2%, while the 3 month is just over 2.3%. That type of inversion virtually 100% of the time signals a pending recession.

Trump has been badgering the Fed to drops rates... and today, the St Louis Fed Chairman indicated that a rate drop is indeed imminent. Of course, Trump will leverage the hell out it... "If only they had listened to me sooner!"
Ugh... :mad:
 

Russ Smith

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I posted in another Trump thread that the ISM index is now the lowest in 2 1/2 years... Additionally, the 10 year is about to go sub-2%, while the 3 month is just over 2.3%. That type of inversion virtually 100% of the time signals a pending recession.

Trump has been badgering the Fed to drops rates... and today, the St Louis Fed Chairman indicated that a rate drop is indeed imminent. Of course, Trump will leverage the hell out it... "If only they had listened to me sooner!"
Ugh... :mad:


Yeah the markets are up today on talks the fed might lower rates and like you I'm worried WHY they have to lower the rates. It's a reaction to lots of bad signs in the markets and economy, I read yesterday the GDP is going to be about 1.5% for the 4th quarter, if true, it's the biggest decline in over 9 years. Of course Trump is going to blame the fed and everyone else but himself but it's got lots to do again with the stupid trade war, his tax plan, and the fact that people pushed through business when the tax plan first kicked in to take advantage of it and so it bumped GDP for 2 quarters and now we're in the trough after that.

Lots of economists say recession is looming, now that seemed inevitable after the big runup and long market surge under Obama and then Trump, but Trumps' policies appear to have accelerated it and might make it bigger than it would have otherwise been.
 

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Yeah the markets are up today on talks the fed might lower rates and like you I'm worried WHY they have to lower the rates. It's a reaction to lots of bad signs in the markets and economy, I read yesterday the GDP is going to be about 1.5% for the 4th quarter, if true, it's the biggest decline in over 9 years. Of course Trump is going to blame the fed and everyone else but himself but it's got lots to do again with the stupid trade war, his tax plan, and the fact that people pushed through business when the tax plan first kicked in to take advantage of it and so it bumped GDP for 2 quarters and now we're in the trough after that.

Lots of economists say recession is looming, now that seemed inevitable after the big runup and long market surge under Obama and then Trump, but Trumps' policies appear to have accelerated it and might make it bigger than it would have otherwise been.

If historical bond trends hold true, the major inversion between the 2 month and 10 year Treasuries are predicting a recession... and this type of inversion has been virtually 100% accurate in terms of forecasting a recession. The question is when it will start. Some say within the next 4-6 months. Some say within the next 12-18 months. It seems highly unlikely that we would somehow avoid a recession.
 

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If historical bond trends hold true, the major inversion between the 2 month and 10 year Treasuries are predicting a recession... and this type of inversion has been virtually 100% accurate in terms of forecasting a recession. The question is when it will start. Some say within the next 4-6 months. Some say within the next 12-18 months. It seems highly unlikely that we would somehow avoid a recession.

If they haven't been doing everything they can to keep it from happening already, I'd imagine the Administration will start pulling out all the stops to keep this away from the 2020 election cycle.
 

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If they haven't been doing everything they can to keep it from happening already, I'd imagine the Administration will start pulling out all the stops to keep this away from the 2020 election cycle.

No doubt... I've been saying the same thing. AND, I am 100% convinced that what Trump is doing with regard to his tariff rants, which he knows full well would spook the markets and cause serious harm to the economy, thereby forcing the Fed to act by dropping rates... is all a well-crafted but fully transparent scheme to hold-off what EVERYONE knows is inevitable - a recession.
I DESPISE the man! :mad:
 

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No doubt... I've been saying the same thing. AND, I am 100% convinced that what Trump is doing with regard to his tariff rants, which he knows full well would spook the markets and cause serious harm to the economy, thereby forcing the Fed to act by dropping rates... is all a well-crafted but fully transparent scheme to hold-off what EVERYONE knows is inevitable - a recession.
I DESPISE the man! :mad:


And then the recession is going to come either way - if Dems win the GOP will try to pin it on them (when we know it is a Trumpcession)
 

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And then the recession is going to come either way - if Dems win the GOP will try to pin it on them (when we know it is a Trumpcession)

I just don't see the Dems winning... as sad as that is. I am definitely not an expert on the economy, and as much as I truly hate Trump, I don't believe he will have been the cause of the coming recession. The older I get, the more I am realizing the reality of cycles... which to me, seem entirely unpreventable. Can a person stall the inevitable, or, perhaps hasten what was coming? I guess... But, this incredible economic run has now lasted longer than any other expansion since WWII. The cycle was bound to come to an end. I guess the real question is/will be - how hard or soft of a landing will it be?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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If historical bond trends hold true, the major inversion between the 2 month and 10 year Treasuries are predicting a recession... and this type of inversion has been virtually 100% accurate in terms of forecasting a recession. The question is when it will start. Some say within the next 4-6 months. Some say within the next 12-18 months. It seems highly unlikely that we would somehow avoid a recession.
On average recessions hit around 14 months following inversion. But that’s give or take 3-6 months. On two occasions it took two separate inversions and the recession didn’t hit until 4 years after the initial inversion. But I wouldn’t count on this being one of those occasions.
 

Dback Jon

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I just don't see the Dems winning... as sad as that is. I am definitely not an expert on the economy, and as much as I truly hate Trump, I don't believe he will have been the cause of the coming recession. The older I get, the more I am realizing the reality of cycles... which to me, seem entirely unpreventable. Can a person stall the inevitable, or, perhaps hasten what was coming? I guess... But, this incredible economic run has now lasted longer than any other expansion since WWII. The cycle was bound to come to an end. I guess the real question is/will be - how hard or soft of a landing will it be?

I agree that a recession is inevitable. The problem is that Trump's policies will make the bottom deeper and harder to climb out of
 

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