Today’ Rumor: Pick 3

lobo

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If Monti thinks he could rebuild the trenches with 6 picks in the top-100 this plus an extra 2nd next year I think he’d do it.

Picks we’d have in that hypothetical:

1-6
2-34
2-48
2-55
3-66
3-96
That is rich!
 

oaken1

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If Monti thinks he could rebuild the trenches with 6 picks in the top-100 this plus an extra 2nd next year I think he’d do it.

Picks we’d have in that hypothetical:

1-6
2-34
2-48
2-55
3-66
3-96
those five picks in the first 66 are gold. the way this draft is,... thats 5 starters
 
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Harry

Harry

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Harry: each drafts has its "tiers" of talent

any sense for the position players where the top of the first round cutoff is?

is it three players? five players? Is it one (Will Anderson) and then a drop off?

Reading sites -- it feels like Anderson, Wilson, and (assuming no off field) Carter -- with Gonzales, Witherspoon maybe in that tier

very interested in your take on this
Interesting question. In many years a set of tiers are very clear. The classic example is the Suggs trade where the Cards dropped down just enough to miss a tier and ruin their draft. Assuming 3 QBs go early, I’d say the first tier ends at 9 (some would say 8). The next break is likely at 21. That’s deeper than most years. From there you could really go to the end of round 2. Then another midway through 3. The final meaningful group is mid 3 through most of 4. This is one of the deepest drafts I’ve seen. As I’ve written I trace the depth largely to the Transfer Portal. I realize this is a subjective generalization but you are correct in thinking some teams do view the draft this way. Anderson is an outlier. Since Carter crashed many evaluators put himin a class all by himself; a generational talent.
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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If Monti thinks he could rebuild the trenches with 6 picks in the top-100 this plus an extra 2nd next year I think he’d do it.

Picks we’d have in that hypothetical:

1-6
2-34
2-48
2-55
3-66
3-96
I have been reading a lot of evals on most of the top 200 players this last week, and have come to the firm belief that if trading back in this particular draft, the only picks that we should consider of value to us are those in the 1-60 range. Any picks a team offers us outside of #60 would not get us a decent starter or even a most likely future starter.

Any offers containing 2023 picks outside #60, I would negotiate for a future R1 or R2 pick in year '24 or '25 instead. We have enough backup player projects and practice squad type players already. Picks that will get us premium players or don't bother trading back.

With that mindset, it makes it easy to decide which teams are worth even talking to. The Jets and Bears have multiple high R2 picks, but they are less likely to want to trade up unless the Bears fall in love with Carter or Anderson, or the Jets trade for Rogers falls through.
 

ajcardfan

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They can have Richardson sit behind Goff for a few years and develop into a star. If we're talking trade rumors I hear some buzz about Tennessee going up to 3.
I remember when they said this about Trey Lance. And, I know, Richardson is a more legit top 10 pick than Lance was. Not that I would take him in the top 10. Lance did not sit behind JG for long. Same thing would happen in Detroit unless the Lions are lighting it up with Goff.
 

kerouac9

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I remember when they said this about Trey Lance. And, I know, Richardson is a more legit top 10 pick than Lance was. Not that I would take him in the top 10. Lance did not sit behind JG for long. Same thing would happen in Detroit unless the Lions are lighting it up with Goff.
Is he tho?
 

Phrazbit

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The fact Richardson has played against real NFL level players and Lance played much more pedestrian competition, yes I think so.

Lance beat up on low tier talent. Richardson looked like hot garbage against (some) NFL prospects.

Richardson's draft hype has nothing to do with what he did on the field... it's all workout hype. If his play in college were the main consideration he'd be a 6th or 7th rounder.
 

ajcardfan

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Lance beat up on low tier talent. Richardson looked like hot garbage against (some) NFL prospects.

Richardson's draft hype has nothing to do with what he did on the field... it's all workout hype. If his play in college were the main consideration he'd be a 6th or 7th rounder.
I am not some kind of huge Richardson fan. I thought Lance is going to be one of the worst draft picks in NFL history. And he will be. Personally wouldn't want either one of them. But some NFL team is going to take Richardson very high. It's that desperate for QBs.
 

BirdGangThing

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I don't think anybody (definitely not Indy) is trading up for the likes of Richardson - but Anderson on the other hand - that's another story as he is actually worth moving up for
 

Krangodnzr

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Lance beat up on low tier talent. Richardson looked like hot garbage against (some) NFL prospects.

Richardson's draft hype has nothing to do with what he did on the field... it's all workout hype. If his play in college were the main consideration he'd be a 6th or 7th rounder.
Not quite true.

I think Richardson is a poor gamble, but he did show some elite tools against good competition, he just isn't a good quarterback at this point in time.
 

Krangodnzr

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Interesting question. In many years a set of tiers are very clear. The classic example is the Suggs trade where the Cards dropped down just enough to miss a tier and ruin their draft. Assuming 3 QBs go early, I’d say the first tier ends at 9 (some would say 8). The next break is likely at 21. That’s deeper than most years. From there you could really go to the end of round 2. Then another midway through 3. The final meaningful group is mid 3 through most of 4. This is one of the deepest drafts I’ve seen. As I’ve written I trace the depth largely to the Transfer Portal. I realize this is a subjective generalization but you are correct in thinking some teams do view the draft this way. Anderson is an outlier. Since Carter crashed many evaluators put himin a class all by himself; a generational talent.
The problem with the Suggs draft was that the Cardinals reached and also didn't play players in positions they belonged.

Pace became a good 3-4 backer when he was used there.
 

Stout

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The problem with the Suggs draft was that the Cardinals reached and also didn't play players in positions they belonged.

Pace became a good 3-4 backer when he was used there.
Yep. We absolutely needed a pass rusher. We absolutely needed a receiver. If we had just sat there and took the top pass rusher (what does that situation remind everyone of?) and then still taken Boldin in the 2nd (without trading back, even), we would've been golden.
 

football karma

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Interesting question. In many years a set of tiers are very clear. The classic example is the Suggs trade where the Cards dropped down just enough to miss a tier and ruin their draft. Assuming 3 QBs go early, I’d say the first tier ends at 9 (some would say 8).
so that says -- if the Raiders at 7 or Falcons at 8 offer a killer trade deal, then you can take it and still get comparable talent, but not (for example) the Jets at 13
 
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